Framing a run for the chicks who are about to graduate from their brooder Image
This rock was fun to dig out by hand Image
Yes I deadlifted it
Gotta get this thing done these fahkers are getting way too big and gotta get em the f out of my basement! Image
Powerful homestead weekend. Working on the property in my "free time" has become second nature. Starting to wonder what other people are doing all the time

Now time for a beer imported from Vermont while I slowly and lazily pick up all my tools Image
Still haven't set up my full kit since we moved here, just bass snare hi hats

Out in the barn. Rusty but intending to play more often again. Almost done collecting tools.
Frame update, some evening work. Now I've gotta get hardware cloth and figure out how I'm going to do the door. Image

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More from @normonics

14 Mar
Ok here we go 🔥 #saptwitter
Brief snow shower
Read 11 tweets
29 Dec 20
Lockdowns don’t work because people keep interacting anyway. In the US if you applied the kind of force needed to truly enforce them you’d start several civil wars simultaneously.
We are seeing “lockdowns don’t work” talking points floating around that seem to imply lockdowns don’t work *in principle*

Meaning “freezing everyone in place for a time doesn’t reduce growth rate of a contagious virus”

This is logically absurd unless we abandon germ theory
If a ruinous virus rolls around, which it does not appear covid is (though it is true we don’t know long term ramifications—doesn’t mean they will be significant but that’s the nature of uncertainty), you’ll DEFINITELY want “lockdown” in your toolkit
Read 4 tweets
17 Nov 20
The most important thing I learned in graduate school came from digging into a very narrow topic area (perception of coherent motion in noise), as one is encouraged to do in academic science

I discovered that a long accepted narrative, supposedly backed by statistics and considered to be a closed matter, was not backed by ANY evidence whatsoever! In fact, what they were calling evidence was actually evidence AGAINST the claim.

This opened my eyes to the dynamics of science as practiced, which often amounts to scientism. statistics are most commonly used to science-up a narrative driven argument.

Read 5 tweets
22 Oct 20
Short twitter lesson on the connections between Antifragility and Requisite Variety:

Living systems must be able to respond to the variety of their environment in order to survive. 1/9
For instance, if the environmental temperature becomes too cold for physiological processes to proceed, an organism must have means to warm itself, else perish. 2/9
But there is no a priori map of the variety of the environment, no list to reference of all the ways the environment might impinge upon an agent. 3/9
Read 9 tweets
29 Sep 20
A fascinating passage from Aristotle’s “On the Soul”

“By some the element of fire is held to be the cause of nutrition and growth, for it alone of the primary bodies or elements is observed to feed and increase itself. ...
Hence the suggestion that in both plants and animals it is it which is the operative force. A concurrent cause in a sense it certainly is, but not the principal cause, that is rather the soul; ...
for while the growth of fire goes on without limit so long as there is a supply of fuel, in the case of all complex wholes formed in the course of nature there is a limit or ratio which determines their size and increase, and limit and ratio are marks of soul but not of fire,...
Read 4 tweets
30 Jan 20
:::Systemic Risk:::

When the agents that present possible harm are *contagious* or are otherwise able to (self-)amplify, you must be extremely cautious, and react to signs of "growth" early and decisively
When the agent of harm in no way produces *additional* ones, local harm is possible, but the risk will not be *systemic* in a large system.

E.g. falling off a ladder does not produce additional ladder falls in others (perhaps even can reduce them).
This is why pandemic is the *prototypical* systemic risk. It is self-amplification of a harmful contagious pathogen!!

If one does not recognize pandemic as a MAJOR systemic risk that should be mitigated in an anticipatory way, that person is BLIND to ALL systemic risk.
Read 4 tweets

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