Here's today's COVID # analysis. As you may have seen, I've been getting prelim #s from deep within the system: the cases are similar (but smaller) than the whisper #s. 1/
Cases 1731 up 18.9% from last Saturday's 1456, Positivity 10.29% compared to last week's 8.59%. Both 7 day average curves solidly rising. 2/ ImageImage
Now that they are not testing every positive case for variants, is there a utility in reporting #s? Perhaps not %s anymore, but at least absolute #s, to pinpoint any trends. 1132 announced today, for what it's worth. 2/
P1 + 130 or 9.7% increase in absolute #s. New P1 peak of Apr 20 at 98 cases, which was 5.6% of cases announced that day. Suspect ongoing exponential growth. B1351 +12, or 12.8% increase in absolute #s. Both worriesome. Source @ByMatthewBlack 3/ Image
Hospitalizations inpt strange plateau continues Thursday being 510 peak Tuesday 511. (Friday 501 yest 493, although these #s subject to change in my experience). ICU continues to climb to new record +3 to 155. Growth rate slowing (small mercies). 4/
3 deaths. Details not yet available (I'll tag this tweet when I track down). Ft. Mac still epicentre of disease, with an astounding 1698/100000 active case rate. 5/ Image
In case you missed it, we're now officially the worst jurisdiction in N.America. I'll reiterate, we have minimal restrictions, WHICH MEANS THINGS WILL KEEP GETTING WORSE until we enact some serious policy. It take 10 days for policy to impact case rates, (image @trevortombe ) 6/ Image
and 2-3 weeks for policy to impact hospitalizations/ICU admits, and deaths. What's to be done? 3 options. 1) convince the province to do better. 2) convince municipalities to override provincial measures 3) convince the feds to intervene. 7/
And I guess 4) continue to do nothing and watch our province flounder. But I prefer the previous 3. I challenge you all to pick up the phone tomorrow and make some calls. I promise to do the same. fin/ Image
Deaths data, thanks to @GlobalEdmonton for this. Image

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More from @jvipondmd

5 May
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Tuesday, including analysis of restrictions (spoiler: pleasantly surprised). 1/
Cases 1822 a 15.2% increase over last Monday's 1581. Positivity remains sky high at 12.4% another increase over last week's 9.91%. Both curves remain ominously steep. 2/ ImageImage
Variants B1617 +1 to 2. Cases IDed on Mar 24 and Apr 8. B1351 +8 to 114 (7.5% incr). P1 +151 to 1959 (8.3% incr). New P1 record of 113 on Apr 30. New B1117 record of 1618 on Apr 30 (66.2% of cases) ((graph of P1 and B1117). 3/ ImageImage
Read 12 tweets
3 May
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Monday. 1/
Cases 1996 a 26% increase over last week's 1583. Case positivity New Record at 13.17%. Look at the steepness of the climb of both curves. And remember that %positivity of 13% we're missing tonnes of community spread. 2/ ImageImage
Variants announced 1900 or 95.2% of day's cases (obviously some catch up on prev days happening here). New P1 +342 another HUGE jump of 23% absolute. Peak now Apr 20 at 102. Remainder of new cases B1117. 3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
3 May
Hey Alberta Friends. Would you consider making a phone call today to one or five of these members of the Emergency Management Cabinet Committee Image
Took five minutes to call the Premier's office. I talked to a real person. They were respectful. I was respectful. Most important 5 minutes of my day.
Phone call made to Min. Lagrange's office. Promise made by them to get back to me with a phone call ("in a couple of days"). But progress.
Read 11 tweets
1 May
Here's your AB COVID19 #s for Saturday, abbreviated because still figuring out what the rapidly evolving situation looks like. 1/
Cases 2473, a whopping 62.5% increase over last Friday's 1522. Seems... Crazy? Could this be some reporting error? Stacked cases from earlier days? Hard to rationalize this massive jump. 2/
Positivity also in record territory, also an incredible 12.01%, far and away the highest we've ever had. Previous record 11.16% on Dec 3rd. This would suggest our systems are flailing/failing. 2/
Read 8 tweets
30 Apr
Here's your very abbreviated AB COVID update for Friday (the numbers are late, not available on the stats website, and so based on @cspotweet's screenshot). 1/
Today's cases are 2007, an 18% increase from last Thurs's 1694. Curve seems to be steepening again. Also confirmed by %positivity of 10.6%, a full percent above last week's 9.68% 2/
989 variants or 49.2% of announced cases. breakdown unavailable for specific variants, or B1117 daily %s. 3/
Read 7 tweets
29 Apr
Here's your AB COVID AB # update for Thursday, along with initial thoughts on the new restrictions announced today. 1/
Today's cases are 2135. new record! bully for us. 14% increase over last week's 1872. % positivity of 10.1% (unchanged from last week) 2/ Image
Variants are 1300+ announced (no specific # announced). B1117 Daily %s: Apr 26 1010/1594 or 63.3%. (no other variant info available yet). 3/
Read 11 tweets

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