Tim Cook Profile picture
May 3, 2021 17 tweets 9 min read Read on X
A thread on what studying "AGPs" tells us about 'aerosols and droplets'

Focus on this paper
…-publications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/an…

Done in Sydney
Hats off to @NWilson247 @EuanTovey
My role was microscopic

First: discussion should be 'what is the proportion of each in disease risk: not A vs B
The study builds on work by others esp Bristol AERATOR study which has examined designated 'aerosol generating procedures' in a laminar flow theatre

-intubation/extubation
-NIV/HFNO
-tracheostomy

& largely identified a LACK of aerosol

More to come on other designated AGPs
For balance here are some studies with slightly different conclusions
ccr.cicm.org.au/config/cicm-cc…

…-publications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…
Another important paper by @nate_gaeckle
Studied NIV/HFNO in a clean isolation chamber

showed
-no more aerosol than other oxygen delivery methods
-massive variation between individuals

atsjournals.org/doi/full/10.11…
Key in all these studies is conduct in ULTRAclean (HEPA filtered) environment

...needed to detect respiratory aerosols (signal) over non-respiratory (noise)

Note
-noise amplitude >> signal
-size distribution differs

(studies in non-clean settings can be ignored!)
...back to the paper at hand
…-publications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/an…

Done in an ultraclean chamber

Key difference from other papers
-massive head sized cone
-high sampling rates
to try to capture ALL exhaled aerosol
Expired particles sampled

During respiratory ACTIVITIES
-breathing
-shouting
-exercise
-force expiration
-cough

With respiratory PROCEDURES
-nothing
-NIV or CPAP
-HFNO
-surgical mask
First key finding.
A modest increase in aerosols with respiratory THERAPIES during quiet breathing

BUT (big but) this disappeared & emissions fell with respiratory therapy during exertional respiratory activities
This fall in exhaled aerosols with NIV/CPAP/HFNO compared to without their use shows they are NOT AGPs

The fall likely due to
-PEEP reducing airway collapse and open/close cycling
-positive inward flow reducing egress
You may have picked it up already....
Yes coughing, exercise & forced expiration (each mimicking breathing patterns in illness) produce many-fold more aerosols than quiet breathing (log scale)

Respiratory ACTIVITY should be focus of concern
NOT respiratory PROCEDURES
For those who want to dive deep here are the particle size distributions (generally >95% <5micron) & the % of all particle volume in these small aerosols
…-publications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/downloa…
Again - as per Gaeckle and others - there was a massive inter-individual variation
So what do we learn

1 NIV, CPAP, HFNO are not AGPs
2 Exertional activities (cough, fast deep breathing) generate up to 370-fold more aerosol than quiet breathing
3 This aerosol is respirable
4 It constitutes a significant volume of all expired volume
5 We need to rethink risk
We know some superspreader events create massive infection & can only be explained by aerosols

These likely combination of
-high viral load (disease time course)
-high risk person (high emitter/spreader)
-high risk activity (sing, shout etc)
-poor ventilation
-prolonged exposure
While droplets may be a high risk at short distance...

...the high production of respirable aerosols by exertional respiratory activities (common in illness) point to a prominent role of aerosol transmission at short distances

(& in some settings over long distances)
The other point I should’ve made. Even more important than an ultraclean setting..

....collaboration between aerosol/environment scientists & clinicians

Key to all the papers in the thread (& missing from many others)

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More from @doctimcook

Apr 27
NAPs and TIVA and pEEG monitoring

Quick summary 🧵 for amongst others
@JulianCorbettF

NAP5
Awareness
-TIVA was associated with a doubling in frequency of accidental awareness (during general anaesthesia (AAGA)
-what a lot of people missed was that when TIVA was used correctly in a TCI mode there was no signal
-most AAGA during TIVA was due to syringe/delivery errors, programming errors, erroneous use of manual infusions especially when converting from volatile to TIVA (eg to transfer sick pt to ICU or radiology)
-6% of GAs were TIVA. 90% of these in theatre were TCI. Outside theatre 18% were TCI.


-pEEG (BIS) use was low at 2.8%
-much higher with TIVA:
*8% without NMB
*23% with NMB
-report recommended universal use of BIS when TIVA used with paralysis


1/5rcoa.ac.uk/sites/default/…
rcoa.ac.uk/sites/default/…
In NAP6 (anaphylaxis) we took stock of all drugs used during anaesthesia

-use of TIVA rose to 8%
-pEEG monitoring was used in 12%
*rising to 32% with TIVA
*38% with TIVA + NMB
-with variation by specialty, anaesthetist seniority & BMI



2/5 rcoa.ac.uk/sites/default/…



Image
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In NAP7 (perioperative cardiac arrest) we collected data on TIVA & pEEG use but not on NMB use

-TIVA use rose dramatically to 26%
*a 4-fold rise in a decade
-pEEG rose to 19%
*a 7-fold rise
-pEEG use during TIVA rose to 62% (likely close to 100% during TIVA + NMB though we did not measure this)
-implying good impact of the previous recommendation (which has been repeated by others)


3/5rcoa.ac.uk/sites/default/…Image
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Read 6 tweets
Apr 8
CARDIAC ARREST DURING OR AFTER SURGERY IN UK PRIVATE HOSPITALS

This is a timely reminder that all healthcare has risks & safety is at the heart of everything we should be doing.

Timely also as I was speaking today to the Independent Healthcare Providers Network (IHPN) about Perioperative Cardiac Arrest in the Independent healthcare sector -based on the findings of the @RCoANews NAP7 report.



A thread on what we found. Not all of which is comfortable. But it is an important discussion.
@bbchealth
@BBCPanorama
@RCoANews



1/15rcoa.ac.uk/research/resea…
TLDR NAP7: Perioperative cardiac arrest in private hospitals

To be clear much work takes place in all sectors to promote safety. The vast majority of anaesthesia and surgery is very safe and outcomes good. But anaesthesia and surgery has risk, some of which is unpredictable.

Being safe and preparing for unusual events is difficult and it is likely harder in settings that are smaller and more remote than in a large NHS hospital.

The purpose of the NAP7 study was to examine the data on cardiac arrest in or after surgery and to explore areas where care may be improved.

2/15Image
We studied perioperative cardiac arrest across the UK

-how hospitals prepared for cardiac arrest

-anaesthetists' experience of managing cardiac arrest

-risk of cardiac arrest during or within 24 hours of anaesthesia care (usually surgery)

-management & outcomes

3/n
Image
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Read 15 tweets
Jan 4, 2023
Amidst the gloom at the NHS crisis its easy to forget one factor: sociomedical success

In the last 30 yrs UK health has been transformed.The predictable consequences required long term planning which appears absent

A 🧵 of old slides (2017) but they still make the point

1/n
Wealth creates health & longevity (& population surge).

Over the last century life expectancy has dramatically increased, as has the population

This creates numerous problem only one of which is health costs

2/n
As an aside for those advocating a US style private healthcare system note

The USA has
-enormous costs
-poor life expectancy
-high perinatal (birth) mortality
-high rates of bankruptcy due to healthcare bills

The UK has none of these

2a/n
Read 21 tweets
Sep 13, 2022
Controversially, I’ve been chatting about population TRIAGE today

A short 🧵& some polls at the end

Early in the pandemic the risk of healthcare being ‘overwhelmed’ was high on the agenda with population triage a logical consequence. Lockdown was to prevent this.

1/11
I now consider triage to be of three types

Triage by prognosis Normal decision-making led by prognosis (& patient’s goals)

Triage by resource
- by individual
- at population level

The latter is not normal

2/11
Decision-making with patients based on prognosis is a doctor’s job.

The other two are arguably decisions for society (or in an emergency for our politicians)

To paraphrase Clemenceau “life and death is too important to be left to the doctors”

3/11
Read 13 tweets
Aug 29, 2022
The pandemic & ICU

There is questionable value of conversation with an individual who is either misinformed or intentionally misrepresenting recent history

However a thread to correct the record/explain apparent inconsistency in data that may lead others to honest error

1/n
March 2020 was a time of uncertainty & fear.

The evidence from Wuhan & northern Italy is that we would be engulfed by an unprecedented number of sick patients many needing ICU

Doing nothing was never an option

2/n
Early modelling suggested our 13 beaded DGH ICU would expect >500 ICU patients in a few weeks.
About 8 months work in one.

Three things reduced actual numbers
-voluntary public behaviour to reduce social interaction
-lockdown
-the predictions were likely too high

3/n
Read 22 tweets
Jun 9, 2022
A short thread on the revised list of AGPs

The AGP list has changed in England

The following are no longer considered to be AGPs

@TonyPi314 @_andyshrimp @drjulesbrown @NWilson247 @EuanTovey

1/6
These changes are laid out in the new NHS National IPC manual (14 April 2022)

england.nhs.uk/wp-content/upl…

2/6
The @RCoANews has a statement that summarises the situation

rcoa.ac.uk/news/introduct…

3/6
Read 6 tweets

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