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Everyone changes their minds in the course of their lives, but it's hard to know how and why. A lot of politics is about lying to people b/c changing minds is hard and lying is easy.

But we know people will soon change their minds about some very specific stuff
Researchers should be tripping over each other to study this. This is a unique moment to watch people change their minds about things in real time. If we set up a good study, we can watch week by week as people shift from "this is a bad idea" to "it's ok now" to "let's do it"
Some people should be studying how people change their minds, but we also have the opportunity to help people make that transition in the next 6-18 months

Everyone will do it and we can be facilitators
A lot of people are in "attack mode"

That's the framing that most media encourages: You are the righteous good person with the correct information and all the bad things are because of the bad people who don't accept your info or your framing.

They are beyond redemption.
In reality, everyone is heading the same direction: Toward normalcy

The most important, valuable work is in the gray zone, where we invite them to their first restaurant in months, where we are there for them as they take their mask off for the last time

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More from @politicalmath

5 May
An ill-advised, self-reflective thread on my twitter persona

It is clear that I simply do not have the temperament or political persuasion to appeal very much past my existing reach

I appeal to a niche (nice to have you!) but I'll never expand beyond that

This thread shows why
For years, this account appealed to technocratic center-right libertarian-ish types

I was a futurist "stay ahead or get left behind" sort of person for many years

But something in the Trump era changed that

I was deeply anti-Trump, I found him repulsive and horrific as a candidate in 2016

I still deeply dislike him

Read 16 tweets
4 May
ok... so this is another good example of state leadership

Yesterday, I said that expected that King County (where I live) was going to move *backward* a phase (from phase 3 to phase 2) b/c that's what our public health officer said would happen /1

Governor Inslee apparently disagreed with the public health officer and, despite the fact that King County isn't "hitting our metrics" for COVID, Inslee is keeping us in Phase 3 (pausing all phase movements for 2 weeks)

This mirrors Gov Whitmer's decision to say to public health experts "thank you for your advice, it is duly considered. We will not be locking down again"

Read 6 tweets
4 May
Help support the COVID Response Project, a citizen journalism initiative focused on capturing the details of how different states and regions responded to the COVID pandemic

Come hear from Tova of Brooklyn, NY and how the Orthodox Jewish community there were living in fear of the COVID inspectors who would interrupt schools and wait outside synagogues for hours hoping to catch illicit prayer meetings

Join my conversation with @Tremorden, who points out that it wasn't so much the pandemic itself as the open-closed-open-closed see-saw of California restrictions that drive many small business into the ground

Read 5 tweets
3 May
Having read the underlying study, I have to say I'm not particularly impressed. This data is super noisy & not at all consistent.
"It’s also important to note that those low rates of children transmitting COVID-19 are very dependent on behavioral modifications — in particular, wearing masks indoors."

Really? Is it? B/c here's the mitigation chart from the study you're citing.

science.sciencemag.org/content/early/… Image
I feel like people just say "masking is correlated with reduced COVID transmission in children" b/c they're afraid if they don't say that people will get angry at them

I still just do not see the data on that being consistent enough to make the case either for or against
Read 4 tweets
3 May
The COVID Response Project has taken up most of my time (and money) the last two months, and we're finally in a place to accept donations.

Help us gather the on-the-ground details of COVID Response for all 50 states

We have 10 interviews in 8 states (AL, CA, MI, NY, OH, TX, VA, WA) so far and every new person I talk to gives a new twist on how COVID has hit their area and how the people and governments have responded to it.
Jeff from AL gave us a lot of insight into schools and particularly into how masking requirements for high school sports (like cross country) have been a meet-by-meet situation

Read 12 tweets
3 May
Thinking out loud:

I get the dunk-tastic night against Jonah Goldberg b/c he did say Glenn Kessler might do things differently if he had another chance and then Glenn basically said "fuck you Jonah" by doubling down on his racist idiocy...

There is a change I sense in the air

Once you could say "I like this guy, but he's wrong" and you could pull together a political coalition around the phrase "he's wrong" where you build bridges with everyone else who thinks he's wrong, whether they like him or not
Now it seems like if you say "I like this guy, but he's wrong", the coalition is built around "I like this guy" where you're on the same side as everyone who likes him and opposed to everyone who doesn't
Read 8 tweets

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