⭐️⭐️ BREAKING NEWS ⭐️⭐️ In Ontario, school closures were associated with a drastic drop in community reproductive values, on average, 11 days after implementation.

Here’s a thread, detailing my setup and analysis.

…1/6
My goal was to determine the effect of school closures (independent variable) on the reproductive rate (the outcome / dependent variable).

The trick was to try and isolate the effect of school closures.

…2/6
For this reason, I selected the four public health units in grey lockdown.

All four had identical non-pharmaceutical interventions in play.

And all four eventually implemented school closures on their own accord.

…3/6
Next, I needed to group these four units into control groups and experimental groups.

This happened naturally when Thunder Bay moved online March 1st and Sudbury moved online March 15th (experimental groups).

Peel and Toronto remained online (control groups).

…4/6
To the advantage of this analysis, Peel and Toronto were later moved online.

So there was the added advantage of being able to move two groups from the control group to the experimental group.

Like what happens in some vaccine studies.

…5/6
Combined, the four public health units had a reproductive value above 1.1 for 107 of 110 days before or at the start of the school intervention.

Between 7 to 13 days after school closures, the reproductive values of ALL four public health units dropped under 1.1.

Permanently.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Ryan Imgrund

Ryan Imgrund Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @imgrund

3 May
MONDAY, MAY 3rd : 0️⃣.9️⃣9️⃣ (Ontario Covid-19 Rt)

🇨🇦CANADA R VALUES🇨🇦

🚦ONTARIO REGIONAL METRIC🚦

PAGE 2
💉Canadian Vaccination Tracker

PAGE 3/4
⚠️Ontario Risk Assessment, Age Breakdown

PAGE 5
🌎Global Update

...1/5
MONDAY, MAY 3rd : CANADIAN VACCINE TRACKER

🇨🇦 NATIONAL & PROVINCIAL 🇨🇦
💉 Vaccination Rates
🚚→🧊→💉 “Gap Tracker”

...2/5
MONDAY, MAY 3rd : ONTARIO REGIONAL COVID-19 RISK ASSESSMENT

⚠️ RISK ASSESSMENT ⚠️
🏫 Schools
🎊 Gatherings

...3/5
Read 5 tweets
3 May
⭐️⭐️ RESEARCH ⭐️⭐️
A study conducting weekly asymptomatic testing in schools found the highest weekly incidence for students was over seven times the reported weekly community incidence at one school, and 14-fold higher at a second school.

…1/5

SOURCE: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Weekly case detection rates ranged from 1 to 5.2% in students, and 0.8% to 1.7% in staff.

Overall, 7% of participating students presented with an asymptomatic infection over just a five week period, as did 5% of staff.

…2/5
And, no surprise, students participating in choir were 2.8 times more likely to test positive than other students. #COVIDisAirborne

…3/5
Read 5 tweets
2 May
SUNDAY, MAY 2nd : 0️⃣.9️⃣6️⃣ (Ontario Covid-19 Rt)

🇨🇦CANADA R VALUES🇨🇦

🚦ONTARIO REGIONAL METRIC🚦

PAGE 2
💉Canadian Vaccination Tracker

PAGE 3/4
⚠️Ontario Risk Assessment, Age Breakdown

PAGE 5
🌎Global Update

...1/5 ImageImageImageImage
SUNDAY, MAY 2nd : CANADIAN VACCINE TRACKER

🇨🇦 NATIONAL & PROVINCIAL 🇨🇦
💉 Vaccination Rates
🚚→🧊→💉 “Gap Tracker”

...2/5 ImageImage
SUNDAY, MAY 2nd : ONTARIO REGIONAL COVID-19 RISK ASSESSMENT

⚠️ RISK ASSESSMENT ⚠️
🏫 Schools
🎊 Gatherings

...3/5 ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
1 May
SATURDAY, MAY 1st : 0️⃣.9️⃣7️⃣ (Ontario Covid-19 Rt)

🇨🇦CANADA R VALUES🇨🇦

🚦ONTARIO REGIONAL METRIC🚦

PAGE 2
💉Canadian Vaccination Tracker

PAGE 3/4
⚠️Ontario Risk Assessment, Age Breakdown

PAGE 5
🌎Global Update

...1/5 ImageImageImageImage
SATURDAY, MAY 1st : CANADIAN VACCINE TRACKER

🇨🇦 NATIONAL & PROVINCIAL 🇨🇦
💉 Vaccination Rates
🚚→🧊→💉 “Gap Tracker”

...2/5 ImageImage
SATURDAY, MAY 1st : ONTARIO REGIONAL COVID-19 RISK ASSESSMENT

⚠️ RISK ASSESSMENT ⚠️
🏫 Schools
🎊 Gatherings

...3/5 ImageImage
Read 7 tweets
19 Apr
In those who were vaccinated and asymptomatic, a majority (81%) tested positive only once.

In those who were asymptomatic and unvaccinated, only 21% tested positive just once.

…5/8
But what about the risks of thromboembolism (i.e. a blood clot that forms, breaks loose, and then blocks another blood vessel)?

Yes: They’ve been observed… But very rarely following AZ vaccination.

SOURCE: doi.org/10.1016/S0140-…

…6/8
Do I have concerns?

My only concern is the 4-month wait between doses - but it’s common to all vaccines in Ontario.

I still plan to act like I’m unvaccinated so there’s no added risk there.

…7/8
Read 5 tweets
19 Apr
MONDAY, APRIL 19th : 1️⃣.0️⃣2️⃣ (Ontario Covid-19 Rt)

🇨🇦CANADA R VALUES🇨🇦

🚦ONTARIO REGIONAL METRIC🚦

PAGE 2
💉Canadian Vaccination Tracker

PAGE 3/4
⚠️Ontario Risk Assessment, Age Breakdown

PAGE 5
🌎Global Update

...1/5
MONDAY, APRIL 19th : CANADIAN VACCINE TRACKER

🇨🇦 NATIONAL & PROVINCIAL 🇨🇦
💉 Vaccination Rates
🚚→🧊→💉 “Gap Tracker”

...2/5
MONDAY, APRIL 19th : ONTARIO REGIONAL COVID-19 RISK ASSESSMENT

⚠️ RISK ASSESSMENT ⚠️
🏫 Schools
🎊 Gatherings

...3/5
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!