1/ Epic v Apple has given unprecedented insight into cross-platform gaming. More data than the platforms themselves have!

For example, Fortnite's MAUs by ecosystem. Note how new devices expanded total player counts and didn't cannibalize the platforms that already had Fortnite
2/ Now, iOS is more important than it looks/is characterized (~10% of DAUs, ~7% revenue).

30% (115MM) of lifetime Fortnite players by August 2020 used iOS to play the game. Two thirds of them (75MM) *only* used iOS (customer expansion). The remaining 40MM used iOS to play *more*
3/ So 20% of all lifetime Fortnite players were iOS only, while ~12% of users of *any* non-iOS device *also* used iOS

Huge, even if iOS player retention relatively lower (likely, though PUBG Mobile + Free Fire are titanic mobile only battle royale)

But why are iOS rev so low?
4/ Those who *also* used iOS likely concentrated cosmetic purchasing to the platforms where cosmetics looked best, most clear

And playtime is likely unequal. I used iPad, Switch, Xbox based on what I had access to. iOS ranked 3rd

But if I don't buy on iOS + iOS users buy less?
5/ Fortnite is a deeply social product.

The more friends you play with, the more you play.

And revenues are mostly from cosmetics, and cosmetics are for showing off. The more of your friends you play with, the greater to incentive to buy and the more you'll need to

So...
6/ Fortnite on iOS expands how much of your friend group plays Fortnite, and how often they do (lunch break, weekend getaway, on bus).

This drives far more revenue than iOS share of total might suggest
That's it for now everybody. For all of my Fortnite and Metaverse thoughts check out matthewball.vc/epic-gamesfort…

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More from @ballmatthew

23 Apr
"The two Disney divisions will present an alternate version of a game featuring appearances by Iron Man, Captain America and other members of the Avengers."

Disney dropping its own Basketball Cinematic Universe before Warner Bros. even relaunches Space Jam
"Bob did what exactly he said he was gonna do. He wiped out 50% of all competing IP" Image
INT. SAFE ROOM –

IGER
Don’t tell me you can’t solve this. Norman Osborne buys a tropical island. He brings dinosaurs back to life. They escape. The Young Avengers save them. Problem?

UNNAMED
Sir, we're still working on WandaVision's School of Witchcraft and Wizardry in the UK
Read 5 tweets
18 Apr
So here is Lara Croft in 1996 and 2018.

Improvements reflect scores of technological advances, but still requires enormous (and character-specific) developer hours

And then there's Epic Games 2021 Metahumans creator (Next tweet)
2/ Huge leaps in fidelity plus ease of creation

Just wait till this sort of stuff is live-rigged to motion capture
3/ Which, in many cases, will require little more than your standard issue iPhone facial tracking

Read 4 tweets
18 Apr
In 2020, mobile gaming revenues exceeded the entire gaming market of 2013
What's interesting is how much future growth is missing from above / is outside these category definitions.

Where do we recognize a virtual concert ticket? Live entertainment or gaming?

Should NFTs be excluded? What about when they interoperate into games, or are bought there?
Consider the historical effect of a new device category.

What will AR glasses or VR do and when? What about blockchain-based virtual worlds?
Read 4 tweets
14 Apr
Morgan Stanley Survey: 39% of Americans Say Netflix Has Best Original Content of All Streaming Services variety.com/2021/digital/n…

(What's important here is that the answers are definitely wrong)
Explaining: Viewership data, demand data (Parrot, IMDb, social), franchise measures, show consumers don't actually believe this (stated v reveal prefs)

Thus consumers misidentify series as Netflix's, &/or don't actually pick service based on 'best content'

Both bull for Netflix
Note this was a deliberate brand strategy.

Netflix refused to allow a show's thumbnail to include the logo of the original airing network (they now do)

Any show Netflix licensed was branded original, even if they didn't make it (everyone now does this)

matthewball.vc/all/netflixori…
Read 5 tweets
4 Apr
"NFTs work because they reproduce economic primitives in the digital world, deliver ownership, decentralized marketplaces" / "Too many people participating means a 'Golden Goose' (which exist in the real world and are like fishing stocks in Newfoundland) can't exist"
Good heavens
There is so much conflation here
Read 4 tweets
3 Apr
Licensing for consumer products really isn't the business folks think it is.

Disney is the best in the West, but CY2019 revenues were $4.6B (8% of total), including video games, with $1.6B profit.

And good heavens do they work for it.
The takeaways are pretty broad and speak to the fallacies of the "just IP flywheel it" arguments towards any IP owner or media company (e.g. Netflix, Paramount, etc.)
"Netflix should be drop shipping chess sets" / "Disney has 200 retail stores + park points of sale, best-in-class licensing terms, exclusive rights to much of the best IP in the world and the topline was equal to 20% of Netflix's streaming revenues, or its YoY growth"
Read 4 tweets

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