Common Qs/statements with simple retorts (thread):

Statement: Kids need to be vaccinated
Retort: Explain Israel

Statement: You need to wear masks post vaccine
Retort: Cite a fully vaxxed index case
Statement: Seasonality does not exist
Retort: Explain the corresponding YoY peaks in different states with different NPIs

Statement: NPIs work
Retort: Explain Fl, Tx, SC, Ok, SD, et al. Also why do places with differing NPIs have varying impacts, should see some uniformity.
Statement: (Follow up to preceding) - Behavior Changed
Retort: UCLA and MD have databases that show behavior and mobility changes, they dont have an impact. An input variable is held static yet the output variable changes, questionable at best.
Statement: We wont hit Herd Immunity
Retort: Ask them to differentiate HI and eradication. HI != eradication. It means the reproductive rate is below 1.
Statement: Natural Infection doesnt last
Retort: Ask them to cite the reinfection rate. Hard data. Not a link to an article.

Statement: Vaccines arent perfect
Retort: Say yes of course then ask them to calculate the probability they go to the hosps post vax
Statement: Kids shouldnt be in school
Retort: Ask them to compare <18 fatality rate in Covid vs that in Flu

Statement: Long Covid!
Retort: Ask them for context of those ailments that occur generally in the population
This is just a sampling but if they cant immediately speak to those retorts they have not done their HW. Sometimes there are interesting conversations that can be but many times they are regurgitating uninformed MSM/social media talking points.

Next tweet is a bonus ha:
Statement: Florida hid data
Retort: Ask them to explain it. Then: haha :-)

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More from @districtai

23 Feb
Okay lets do some real talk with variants to counter the fear narrative that is circulating out there (thread):

There has been a lot of fear and panic pushed out today about a variant in California but to me it is more sizzle than steak.
Variants are very common when it comes to viruses. Up until about a few months ago we did not really do enough genomic sequencing to track them but now we are increasing this practice. This helps in tracking mutations and these variants can be dated (tracked)
This can provide a great advantage when it comes to seeing how a particular virus mutates and behaves in the environment. So it does have very good advantages. However it seems lately we have been using this to push panic which I do not think is good at any time.
Read 17 tweets
22 Feb
Apocalypse Checkup:

How is Iowa doing?

The answer? Pretty damned good.

On Feb 5th @KimReynoldsIA lifted the statewide mask mandate as of the following sunday, Feb 7th. Well let's see how they are doing since:

Thread
Cases:

Dropped from 546 (7d MA) to 361 which is a 33.8% decrease

Hosps:

Dropped from 316 to 229 which is a 27.5%

Deaths:

Really too early to tell but still have dropped from 30 to 14.
The @DMRegister quickly lambasted her but as we can see they were wrong. The @StarTribune in Minnesota did the same. This is the same pattern we have been seeing. Outlets criticize a politician for removing NPIs, are proven wrong and are never held to account.
Read 5 tweets
8 Feb
Covid cases and hosps are falling, fast. What can we possibly rule out? Thread (data used in parenthesis):

- Masking? compliance actually increased into this rise...has not increased markedly during the fall (IHME)
- Behavior? no data backing this up (USC Behavior)

1/x
- PCR Ct? WHO put out guidance but besides a small Kansas announcement the CDC has not followed suit (WHO, no CDC announcement)
- Less Testing? Cases have fallen at a much higher percentage than testing has receded (Cases down roughly 50%, Testing 20%, Data: CTP).

2/x
- Variants? Well variants would cause an increase according to the models (these are only models) yet SA and UK are also falling fast. (worldometers)
- Vaccines? Too early for those but we could start seeing effects on keep down severe cases this month (Bloomberg)

3/x
Read 6 tweets

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