The $BTC maxis are in cope mode.

The second best thing about the #flippening is going to be how much their cope intensifies.

Fundamentally, I think Eth is more valuable than BTC, especially in a bull market.
Before I said that Eth was like government bonds in a rapidly growing nation and BTC is like gold.

Bonds are a total of $119Tr, gold is about $10Tr

Stocks (like alts?) are another $89Tr

I think this is not a terrible way to estimate the long-term distribution of value.
The implied ratio is about 10, so 1 Eth would be worth about 1.82 BTC, assuming Eth really does take most of the layer 1 market.

That's $90K per Eth at current BTC prices, though I think BTC will also grow.

Of course we're not going there in a straight line.
@SquishChaos has a "Triple halving" piece out claiming $150k in the short term, with $50k long-term sustainable.
The ultimate target for Ethereum is a $120Tr market cap, which is $1M per Ether. This is long-term and assumes that Ethereum passes every technical hurdle.
(By "long-term" I mean 20, 30, 40 years)

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More from @RokoMijicUK

2 May
@iamDCinvestor calls ethereum "Digital Magic" to bitcoin's digital gold.

Bitcoin is certainly like gold, but I think it's a bit frothy to call Ethereum "magic".

If Bitcoin is gold, what is the old-fashioned thing that corresponds to ethereum?
The answer I settled on in this thread is that Ethereum is like digital bonds.

You're buying government bonds, except the "government" is a sort of decentralized world computer, and these are kind of like bearer bonds (you can freely trade them). Image
The coupon on the bond comes via EIP-1559 where every transaction gets taxed and some of that is returned to ETH holders (the government is taxing economic activity and using part of that revenue to pay bondholders).
Read 6 tweets
2 May
People are trying to shill me @urbit stars.

I love the idea of urbit and still have a planet, but I'm not sure about urbit as an investment.

Urbit made a LOT of digital land and it currently has ~0 users. The market cap of stars is ~$600M at $9500 for each of 64k stars.
The bull case for Urbit stars is that Urbit works out how to get users/how to make it so that you can actually use Urbit without lots of technical know-how, which causes interest in planet ownership and therefore in stars and galaxies.
But even then, the current market cap of ALL the stars is a bit too big. $600M for a system with no users and a bunch of whales is not great.

But, Urbit could start burning stars and planets at the same time as they launch a decent UI. And some stars are locked 🤔
Read 4 tweets
1 May
Simon Dedeo "why you should delete social media"

I disagree. Deleting social media is dumb. Without social media in the pandemic I would have had essentially no human contact for 15 months.

simondedeo.com/?p=705
But I know a few people who get mental health issues from social media.

You need to control it. I have pruned notifications as aggressively as possible on twitter and Facebook.

On Facebook I've unfollowed almost everyone.
Youtube I've blocked all recommendations via a browser extension

The only social media I haven't aggressively pruned is Tiktok, but the crypto-tiktok content is actually painful to listen to and I have to force myself to use it.
Read 5 tweets
1 May
This thread by @kwamurai is worth responding to. The idea is that government by any system end with that system being corrupted by insiders, gamed or goodhearted in some way.

Right now we're seeing lots of this in The West, a whole bunch of systems are getting gamed.
The implied solution is that you shouldn't have any systems, just some kind of Conan-the-Barbarian leader whose word is law.

But I think this is the wrong lesson to learn from the subversion of Western institutions.
Western institutions like the academy, the press, the bureaucracy etc simply weren't designed (or didn't have time to evolve) to deal with subversion. They rely far too much on people using judgement - the editor of a journal, the staff in a newsroom, etc.
Read 15 tweets
30 Apr
Just to give you all some idea of how insanely early we still are in crypto and how dumb the mainstream is, read this from PayPal:

paypal.com/us/smarthelp/a…
Paypal is offering customers Ethereum and 3 different types of digital pet rock.

> "Bitcoin Cash: created in 2017, the group behind Bitcoin Cash say transaction times are faster than the original Bitcoin."
> "Litecoin: designed to be a future payment method and can be mined more quickly than Bitcoin - producing one new coin every 2.5 minutes (whereas Bitcoin produces one every 10 minutes)."
Read 4 tweets
30 Apr
Mencius Moldbug is dismissive of the idea of replacing rule by a King with rule by a smart contract, he calls it a "Quantum Exponential leap".

Here's why I think he's wrong:

🧵
First of all, you can see the whole section from @kaschuta's show here (skip to 1:11:18):

The criticism is two-pronged:

(1) We don't have the technology to use smart contracts to make real-world decisions and blockchain tech is slow and expensive, and you would also need AI tech that we don't have because it's AI-complete.
Read 27 tweets

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