ok... so this is another good example of state leadership

Yesterday, I said that expected that King County (where I live) was going to move *backward* a phase (from phase 3 to phase 2) b/c that's what our public health officer said would happen /1

Governor Inslee apparently disagreed with the public health officer and, despite the fact that King County isn't "hitting our metrics" for COVID, Inslee is keeping us in Phase 3 (pausing all phase movements for 2 weeks)

This mirrors Gov Whitmer's decision to say to public health experts "thank you for your advice, it is duly considered. We will not be locking down again"

This is in stark contrast to how Inslee was governing a year ago, when he seemed paralyzed by the obviously unrealistic metrics that were being put out by out health department

Last July I praised TX and FL for showing flexibility (which I wasn't seeing here in WA)

It is an under-reported reality that DeSantis led the charge in approaching this crisis with flexibility and not leaving state governance to the health dept

I don't want to hear criticism of Inslee. It would have been the easiest thing in the word to give in and just shrug his shoulders and say "sorry, the numbers demand I do this"

He didn't. He showed leadership and took full account of the situation & made the right decision.

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More from @politicalmath

6 May
Today's newsletter is quite hopeful

The first section is about how multiple "follow the science" blue-state governors have recently waved off the guidance of their health officials in favor of a high-stability, low-variability restrictions

When the public health officer for my county said "oh we're definitely moving back a phase", WA Gov Inslee said "Nah. We appreciate your concern but stability is more important" Image
My reference to "the death of science based leadership" is not "no one listens to the science" but the fact that the "listen to the science" crowd has been using that slogan as a replacement for actual leadership

That abdication has led to disaster

Read 5 tweets
5 May
I'm super curious about this poll


B/c we can check who self-reports about getting the vaccine against the *actual numbers* from the CDC at the time of polling.

They don't line up with the poll very well.
On the first day of polling (April 19th), over 80% of seniors had been vaccinated (vs 72% in the poll)

On the last day of polling, 46% of 18-64 year olds had gotten vaccinated (vs 53-54% in the poll)

There are several options for why this is and they're all annoying.
It could be seniors are under-reporting their vaccination status. Maybe they don't wans to say "I've already gotten the vaccine" if they haven't gotten the second dose.
Read 5 tweets
5 May
An ill-advised, self-reflective thread on my twitter persona

It is clear that I simply do not have the temperament or political persuasion to appeal very much past my existing reach

I appeal to a niche (nice to have you!) but I'll never expand beyond that

This thread shows why
For years, this account appealed to technocratic center-right libertarian-ish types

I was a futurist "stay ahead or get left behind" sort of person for many years

But something in the Trump era changed that

I was deeply anti-Trump, I found him repulsive and horrific as a candidate in 2016

I still deeply dislike him

Read 16 tweets
4 May
Help support the COVID Response Project, a citizen journalism initiative focused on capturing the details of how different states and regions responded to the COVID pandemic

Come hear from Tova of Brooklyn, NY and how the Orthodox Jewish community there were living in fear of the COVID inspectors who would interrupt schools and wait outside synagogues for hours hoping to catch illicit prayer meetings

Join my conversation with @Tremorden, who points out that it wasn't so much the pandemic itself as the open-closed-open-closed see-saw of California restrictions that drive many small business into the ground

Read 5 tweets
3 May
Having read the underlying study, I have to say I'm not particularly impressed. This data is super noisy & not at all consistent.
"It’s also important to note that those low rates of children transmitting COVID-19 are very dependent on behavioral modifications — in particular, wearing masks indoors."

Really? Is it? B/c here's the mitigation chart from the study you're citing.

I feel like people just say "masking is correlated with reduced COVID transmission in children" b/c they're afraid if they don't say that people will get angry at them

I still just do not see the data on that being consistent enough to make the case either for or against
Read 4 tweets
3 May
I wrote something I think is important, but it's behind my newsletter paywall, so you're either going to have to fill in the blanks from this thread or just subscribe

Everyone changes their minds in the course of their lives, but it's hard to know how and why. A lot of politics is about lying to people b/c changing minds is hard and lying is easy.

But we know people will soon change their minds about some very specific stuff
Researchers should be tripping over each other to study this. This is a unique moment to watch people change their minds about things in real time. If we set up a good study, we can watch week by week as people shift from "this is a bad idea" to "it's ok now" to "let's do it"
Read 6 tweets

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