Chia storage use is very much on the exponential growth curve right now, and I'm curious when shortages will start being felt in US consumer channels.
The total amount of hard drive storage is massive, but the number assigned to retail channels is not, and it is hard to increase. This is doubly true for the high-end SSDs that chia farmers favor for plotting (that is, creating new bingo squares)
What we really need to make the cryptocurrency revolution complete is a popular new coin that requires massive amounts of RAM. Then all components of homemade PCs will be equally unaffordable, and balance will have been restored
Kudos to Bram Cohen and team for inventing a form of Lisp that massively inconveniences anyone who needs to buy a hard drive in the next five years. This is a huge leap forward for Lisp, which for decades had only caused pain to the people who used it
(For those unfamiliar with chia, it has two big resource consuming steps. The process of making new bingo cards requires NVMe SSDs, while the cards are stored on regular hard drives. Bingo card creation is the bottleneck, so the SSDs are the most endangered species of storage)
Cryptocurrency is an ingenious technique for converting concentrated wealth into widespread shortages, ransomware, and carbon dioxide. Whoever figures out how to run it in reverse will have their statue in every public square
Updated chart of Chia disk use, which just crossed 6 exabytes. We're one Elon Musk tweet away from no one being able to afford a high-performance SSD ever again
Tom's Hardware has gone into detail on some of the Chia induced price spikes and high-capacity HDD shortages. But the real pain is probably in fast SSDs, since you need those to create the Bram Cohen Bingo™ cards to fill the big hard drives with tomshardware.com/news/analysis-…
The fact that 1/3 of Cohen's new "decentralized" cryptocurrency is already controlled by a Chinese pool that requires users to install custom software is the cherry on top. Of course, they're working on adding more software to re-decentralize. Code is the solution to all problems
The appeal of cryptocurrency to a certain class of mind is that it purports to be a technical solution to a social problem: How do you pay strangers without trusting anyone? But it shows that you can't escape social problems with technology, you can only dig yourself in deeper
The attempt reminds me a lot of early attempts to formalize mathematics—that if you could put everything on a basis that you could prove theorems about, and had enough expressive power, you'd eventually get arrive at a "God's eye view" of Truth and Beauty and so on.
The discovery that this is not possible even in principle was a pivotal moment in human thought. There's a similar (if less lofty) principle at play here. Any interaction between people is irredeemably and ineradicably social, no matter how much code you slather on top of it
The problem with cryptocurrency, though, is that it has that false promise. It seduces people who are exceptionally brilliant but (for whatever reason) uncomfortable with the messiness of social interaction and human institutions in general. And it attracts raging sociopaths.
The usual mantra is that technology is amoral, and we twist it to our human ends, for good or bad. But cryptocurrency is a good candidate for tech that is inherently evil. It's an intellectual island of the Lotus Eaters for smart minds, and you can also do lots of crimes with it
Anyway, keep an eye out for Pinboard FunBuxx! You'll want to get in on the ground floor of this one
The internet-mediated diversion of extremely smart people into dead-end basins of thought like hyperintelligence or cryptocurrency is something I post a lot about on this site, rather than making productive use of my time
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There's a reverse Gell-Mann amnesia effect with Elon Musk, where people have now watched him say the stupidest shit in all domains of discourse, but still assume he knows what he's talking about when the topic is Mars. But I swear on his 13 kids that is not the case.
John Carmack is one of the few people I've seen publicly articulate what's really hard about a Mars mission. It's not about rockets at all. It's that we can't keep humans alive that long *on Earth* with existing technology. We're about 12 months short.
There also hasn't been enough attention paid to the fact that the SpaceX plan for Mars is to land first and figure out the return part later. That requires manufacturing fuel on Mars, which among other things requires giving Elon Musk fissile material for reactors.
Lurking the r/generator subreddit recently I learned something interesting about the situation in Texas. Quite reasonably a lot of people in the Houston area have decided to get generators installed, since there have been recent major power outages both in summer and winter...
This being Texas, what most people want to run off their generator is a five-ton whole-house air conditioner. This as you can imagine is pretty power hungry, particularly when it first powers on. To avoid storing gas/diesel, a lot of people have opted for a natural gas hookup
Natural gas distribution in Texas is not set up to support hundreds of multi-kilowatt generators running at the same time, let alone firing up at the same time. So what people have collaboratively built in Texas is a system for converting power outages into massive gas outages.
The first time I voted in a US election I was amazed that no proof of citizenship—not even photo ID—was required. From the point of view of an immigrant, you're constantly made to prove your legal residency for stuff—jobs, school, driving—but for some reason not voting.
I don't really get why positive proof of ID isn't a voting requirement, other than the fact that voting law in the US is very old and predates the modern surveillance state. I don't have strong feelings about it, but it's definitely a US oddity, like the lack of national ID
From the point of view of public faith in elections, there does seem to be something rickety about the combination of trust-me voter registration requirements, absentee ballots, and mail-in votes getting counted for weeks after election day.
Cryptocurrency and generative AI make roughly the same size claims to being transformative innovations, so it's interesting to see how many interesting things people have already found to do with the latter, while the first has mostly been an expensive tour through human folly
I like thinking of cryptocurrency as "financial string theory", but for the parallel to really work a lot more physicists would need to be in jail
With both crypto and string theory, you have domain experts in thrall to a mathematical apparatus so intellectually satisfying that they get emotionally invested into bringing it into contact with reality. But instead each failed attempt pushes them further out into la-la-land
Rising from the crypt to talk a little about how pre-wikipedia generations lived. There was a big encyclopedia in the library, but only really rich families would own one. The best that poor kids could hope for was grocery store encyclopedias, bought one volume at a time
Grocery chains really would sell the world's saddest encyclopedia, one slim volume a week, and you felt lucky to have it. Unrestricted access to a full set of the Encyclopedia Britannica is the thing that felt most like having access to the world wide web in the pre-www days.
Naturally when the web came along, we all wondered how encyclopedias would work online, and for a brief while it looked like Microsoft would sell expensive access to a kind of crappy one. And then wikipedia appeared and blew everyone's mind by the fact that it worked
Early this year I went online after taking too many drugs and ordered a Mongolian yurt. Here is my yurt, and here is my story:
The great thing about yurts is you can get high, make a deposit, and forget you bought one for seven months. Then in late July I got email giving me an imminent delivery date and demanding to see a photo of the finished substructure. I tried to bluff them with a quick Lowe's run
The yurt company was totally on to me, though. Everyone lies about the substructure. Demands for photo evidence grew insistent, and I found myself having to level heavy things in the desert while getting heatstroke