Mostly Borrowed Ideas Profile picture
May 8, 2021 17 tweets 7 min read Read on X
1/ $IAC/ $ANGI 1Q’21 Update

“The IAC Way pairs scrappiness and big ambition with the rational patience of permanent capital.”

Joey Levin is an excellent communicator. Another young CEO in early 40s who can work for shareholders hopefully for decades.

Here are my notes.
2/ “Whatever the relative point of reference: we’re back where we need to be: building”

16% CAGR since 1995 is an awesome track record in the public markets. That’s ~4x of S&P 500 over the same period.
3/ Vimeo

“Vimeo became part of IAC in 2006 through the $26 million acquisition of Connected Ventures, a collection of businesses whose main attraction for IAC was a business called College Humor.”

Incredible story on the early years of Vimeo.
4/ “Nearly every stat we laid out in 2017 to rationalize the strategy shift has doubled and continues to increase”
5/ $ANGI

Fixed price is now ~$250 mn run-rate business (vs $160 mn in 2020). This is probably the most interesting chart on ANGI which shows why the fixed price model is of paramount importance.

See the second image to understand what the chart shows.
6/ ANGI will invest quite heavily on fixed price model.

I like the honesty when Joey said “slightly scary”

Although I’m long, I continue to think ANGI’s success is far from guaranteed, but risk-reward seems lucrative.

My deep dive here (paywall): mbi-deepdives.com/angi/
7/ I understand and agree with the rationale of focus of one brand: ANGI, but I wonder whether a completely new brand would be a better option here.

If anything, ANGI brand may not have the most positive connotation in the market.
8/ ANGI is going to focus on 2 things: get the job done for the customers, and help the pros to grow their business.

Oisin Hanrahan, ANGI’s new CEO in his 30s, sounds more focused and methodical. It’s a difficult business, so the execution needs to be really top-notch.
9/ ANGI is eyeing on absolute EBITDA dollars, and not trying to protect margins.
10/ ANGI payments is already doing $100 mn run rate. Pros that use payments have much higher retention.

Really strange thing is in many cases Pros are doing customer acquisition for ANGI.
11/ When customers use the app, the data is really mind boggling. They basically do all of their home related jobs via ANGI.

If they can just get this going, oh boy… (again, not an easy business)
12/ Dotdash

It is probably the most exciting business in IAC post-Vimeo spin-off.

“Advertisers now put a premium on high quality, safe content that connects them directly with a contextual user need, and have realized that “promoted content” is neither promoted nor content.”
13/ In post-IDFA world, Dotdash can possibly accelerate its growth.

The setup looks pretty good for them. Expect more investments into content. I endorse.
14/ Care dot com

Care@work is growing 100% YoY. Nothing significant now, but long-term ambition seems much bigger.
15/ “We don't have to buy things at low multiples. We have to buy things where we have a very clear vision for a very large future, and that can exist in any market.”

Preach.
16/ Levin says, Lumber is no $MGM, bro (paraphrasing) 😉

Monthly metrics attached here (second image)
End/ I’ll publish my deep dive on $OTIS Tuesday next week.

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More from @borrowed_ideas

Aug 20
Notes from $TXN Capital Management Call today

"Market environment remains weak, with shipments below 2019 levels." Image
growth opportunities in industrial and automotive Image
Four revenue scenarios for 2026, with floor being $20 Bn. FYI, $TXN consensus estimates for '26 revenue is $20 Bn.

"I would be extremely disappointed if it ends up at $20 billion. That's not my expectation. That's not the signature I see as we compete for market share today."Image
Image
Read 11 tweets
Aug 5
I received a couple of DMs asking about "hey, what's going on in Bangladesh"

While I left Bangladesh in 2017, my almost entire family still lives there. So I'm keenly aware of what's going on. I'll briefly cover what happened and the implications.
let's start with the end result. The Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Hasina or SH (who's the Head of State in Bangladesh) fled the country after facing intense protest from Bangladeshi students. Her exact location doesn't seem to be confirmed yet (rumored to be India or EU).
Let's back up a little and give some brief historical context.

SH came to power in 2008. Her father- Mujib was the architect in mobilizing people in Bangladesh to gain independence from Pakistan in 1971. Following independence, Mujib became the first PM of Bangladesh.
Read 24 tweets
Aug 5
Incredibly lucky to have bought these puts exactly a month ago. +130%.

Made several (but slight) changes in the portfolio today. More below.
closed my $AMZN Jan 2025 $160 calls that I wrote. 43% gain in this trade, but feels like just another lucky trade as I now think AMZN is undervalued (and I was likely too cautious to hedge it at $160 back then). Kept the $55 calls unhedged now.

sold ~1% $BRO to add to $CNSWF.

CSU's organic growth for recurring revenue will probably more or less mimic $BRO's organic growth. But CSU has ~20% ROIC vs BRO's ~10% but they trade at *almost* similar multiple. So I decided to buyback what I trimmed.



Image
Image
Read 5 tweets
Jul 26
Going through insurance brokers earnings now. $AON and $MMC finally growing in tandem after AON lagged MMC consistently since 2Q'21.

$BRO is the clear winner in organic growth for this quarter. (disc: long $BRO and $AON) Image
Looking closer between MMC and AON. Image
will add to this thread later as I go through the transcript.

In the meantime, here's my Deep Dive on $BRO (also explains why I love this industry and would like to own probably most of these companies over time at "right" valuation):

mbi-deepdives.com/bro/
Read 12 tweets
Jul 26
Notes on $TXN 2Q'24 Call

After sequential revenue decline in China for 7 consecutive quarters, this quarter experienced ~15-20% growth across all segments in China. Europe and Japan are also in early phase of the upcycle. Image
More commentary on China:

"the market is more competitive in China, but we can compete and we can win business in very attractive margins"Image
expect incremental margin to be ~75-85% (ex depreciation)

"Inventory is being built at the right part, where we have this diversity and longevity positions such that we don't risk the scrap of the inventory."Image
Read 6 tweets
Jul 25
Some thoughts on Bioprocessing after listening to $DHR and $SRT calls
I received some push back after mentioning in my $SRT Deep Dive that DHR/SRT have pricing power.

Despite destocking and overcapacity concerns, DHR is saying they aren't seeing significant pricing pressure Image
To be fair to people questioning about pricing power in bioprocessing, $SRT gave mixed signals.

Here are three quotes on pricing from $SRT call:
Read 7 tweets

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