As scientists with relevant expertise, we agree with @WHO@DrTedros, US & 13 other countries, & EU that greater clarity about the #OriginsofCOVID is necessary and feasible to achieve. We must take hypotheses about natural & laboratory spillovers seriously. science.sciencemag.org/content/372/65…
I'll be providing links to top threads and coverage of our letter in this thread. Thank you @jbloom_lab and @DavidRelman and the other 15 signatories!
“I stayed out of it because I was busy dealing with the outcome of the pandemic instead of the origin,” @mlipsitch says. “[But] when the WHO comes out with a report that makes a specious claim about an important topic … it’s worth speaking out.”
Shi Zhengli, said in an email that the letter’s suspicions were misplaced and would damage the world’s ability to respond to pandemics. “It’s definitely not acceptable,” Shi said of the group’s call to see her lab’s records. technologyreview.com/2021/05/13/102…
“We felt motivated to say something because science is not living up to what it can be...” @DavidRelman says. “For me, part of the purpose was to create a safe space for other scientists to say something of their own.”
"the recent W.H.O. report on the origins of the virus, and its discussion, spurred several of us to get in touch with each other and talk about our shared desire for dispassionate investigation" @MichaelWorobey nytimes.com/2021/05/13/sci…
“I think it is more likely than not that SARS-CoV-2 emerged from an animal reservoir... I am concerned about the short- and long-term consequences of failing to evaluate the possibility of laboratory escape in a rigorous way. It would be a troublesome precedent.” @sarahcobey
Dr. Andersen, who reviewed the letter in Science, said that both explanations were theoretically possible. But, “the letter suggests a false equivalence between the lab escape and natural origin scenarios”
The Science letter is an attempt to correct the record and push an investigation forward.
"The China-WHO joint study reporting was giving the public the wrong impression that a lab escape was extremely unlikely" (my quote) cnet.com/news/calls-to-…
Chinese doctors, scientists, journalists, and citizens shared with the world crucial information about the spread of the virus—often at great personal cost. We should show the same determination in promoting a dispassionate science-based discourse.
That's it for the first hour. I'll add more updates later today.
The signatories each have different opinions of how likely or unlikely a lab origin of Covid-19 is, but they are all incredibly brave to call for an investigation of the origins of this once-in-a-lifetime pandemic.
Worobey "thought a lot about how this research could create an ecological avenue to introduce a new pathogen to humans... 'As someone who does this, I’m very aware of the opening that creates for new viruses to get close to humans'” news.yahoo.com/did-coronaviru…
Although David Robertson, head of viral genomics & bioinformatics, University of Glasgow "agreed with the authors of the letter that it was essential to find the origins of SARS-CoV-2 to prepare for the next pandemic, 'wasting time investigating labs is a distraction from this'"
"Among the 18 signatories are some of the researchers who led the study of the novel coronavirus... published in the journal Science, a showcase of the best of international science." brasil.elpais.com/ciencia/2021-0…
"In order to crush the virus and prevent future global pandemics, we must consider every hypothesis available and have non-partisan, independent, scientific experts conduct an investigation to inform our understanding of COVID-19 and similar infectious diseases."
"I stand ready to support the Biden Administration and our international partners in such an investigation of COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2 origins, and I’m grateful to the scientists for leading this effort."
Coverage by @whippletom in @thetimes
“We know that laboratory accidents happen far more often than anyone would like to admit,” @DavidRelman said. “And that includes the very best labs, including those here in the United States.” thetimes.co.uk/article/3a6417…
“If the laboratory leak theory is wrong, China could easily clarify the situation by being more open and transparent. Instead, it acts as if there is something to hide.”
The lab leak theory "can be as simple as a researcher being infected by an animal or even another infected person in remote areas, and then bringing it into one of the most densely populated cities on Earth."
The gain-of-function hypothesis supposes both that a virus leaked from the Wuhan Institute and that scientists there tampered with it in ways that could have made it more infective or deadly. politifact.com/article/2021/m…
“On the same day that Biden looked toward the pandemic’s end, a group of 18 prominent scientists looked, figuratively, in the opposite direction, toward how it all began.”
“In a highly significant move, 18 scientists from the world's top universities, including Cambridge, Harvard and Yale, have demanded further investigations into the origins of the pandemic.”
Another @washingtonpost article on our letter: 18 preeminent scientists published a letter in the journal @ScienceMagazine saying a new investigation is needed because “theories of accidental release from a lab and zoonotic spillover both remain viable.” washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/…
It quotes Prof Ian Lipkin who told former @nytimes reporter Donald McNeil Jr, regarding the WIV SARS virus research:
“That’s screwed up... It shouldn’t have happened. People should not be looking at bat viruses in BSL-2 labs. My view has changed.”
Lots of interesting new quotes from Peter Daszak and Ralph Baric in this @KHNews article by @ArthurAllen202
Baric “does not believe covid resulted from gain-of-function.. he signed the Science letter calling for.. investigation of his Chinese colleagues’ lab.. because while he “personally believes in the natural origin hypothesis,” WHO should arrange for a rigorous open investigation.”
“Many Chinese scientists were in contact with colleagues and journals outside the country as the pandemic emerged. Those communications may contain clues, Chan said, and someone should methodically interview the contacted individuals.”
🌟article @NathanJRobinson@curaffairs
"prominent biologists—including the world’s foremost coronavirus researcher published a letter in Science arguing that there needs to be a more serious investigation that takes the lab leak possibility more seriously" currentaffairs.org/2021/05/the-st…
“I also should link to this letter that has just appeared in Science, calling for greater clarity on the whole issue, and I don’t think anyone can disagree that it’s needed”
From @edmontonjournal 🇨🇦 “sanctions should be imposed on labs and nation states that fail to meet the highest of levels of transparency around laboratory safety, something that sober scientific experts now make clear Chinese authorities have failed”
"18 leading scientists published a letter in the academic journal Science calling for further investigation to determine the origin of the pandemic that has killed 3.4 million people worldwide." politico.com/newsletters/po…
I told @politico that "Much of the currently available information suggests that a lab-based origin of Covid-19 is plausible. There remains no sign of an intermediate animal host that could have passed the virus to humans in 2019."
"There are a number of plausible scenarios embedded in this label, ‘lab leak,’ and importantly, they include an unrecognized infection of a well-intentioned lab worker attempting to recover or study new coronaviruses from bats." - @DavidRelman
“Documentary evidence establishes that the bat-SARS-related-coronavirus projects at [WIV] used.. biosafety standards that would pose high risk of infection of field.. or laboratory staff upon contact with a virus having the transmission properties of SARS-CoV-2.” - @R_H_Ebright
"All of us wish we could say 'this is what happened,'" said Jesse Bloom @jbloom_lab who studies viral evolution.. and who helped draft the letter. "Objectively, it's not possible for scientists to say what happened with the current information." usatoday.com/story/news/hea…
"But it's not too late to get a clearer idea of the origins of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, Iwasaki @VirusesImmunity said. "A proper investigation.. will help uncover the origin of the virus.. We need to approach this issue with objective scientific approaches.""
Lawrence Gostin @LawrenceGostin O’Neill Institute for National & Global Health Law, Georgetown University: "China has not allowed a full, independent and rigorous examination of its territory, and it keeps insisting it happened in some other country contrary to all evidence."
“Relman is no stranger to complicated microbial threat scenarios and illness of unclear origin. He has advised the U.S. government on emerging infectious diseases and potential biological threats...”
“Scientists are also committed to the pursuit of truth and knowledge. If we have the will, we can and will learn much more about where and how this pandemic arose.”
The record is finally being set straight - lab origin hypotheses of covid-19 have always been plausible and warrant a full investigation even if severely belated.
The @ScienceMagazine letter “was the most prominent sign that the initial explanation for the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 — that it spilled over from an animal source — is coming into doubt.”
But I strongly disagree with @bryanrwalsh’s bottom line: “Should we discover that COVID-19 originated in research — however well-intentioned — a recent boost in public support for science could evaporate, which might be the greatest risk of all.”
The greatest risk of all is scientists showing that we are incapable of self-regulation and therefore not trustworthy.
Trust and support are built from transparency, owning mistakes and doing better, rather than covering up accidents and failures.
Great interview of @mlipsitch by @WBUR about the importance of having an international, balanced investigation of the #OriginOfCOVID19
“the answer should not be governed by what we want to hear or what we wish was true, but by where the facts point."
More about our @ScienceMagazine letter in @WSJ
"scientists from universities including Harvard, Stanford and Yale published an open letter.. calling for serious consideration of the lab hypothesis and urging research laboratories to open their records." wsj.com/articles/wuhan…
And @HuffPost on our @ScienceMagazine letter!
"scientists from the U.S., U.K., Canada and Switzerland.. said origin theories “were not given balanced consideration” in the WHO’s report." huffpost.com/entry/wuhan-re…
Another in @washingtonpost
May 14: Eighteen prominent scientists publish a letter in the journal Science, saying a new investigation is needed because “theories of accidental release from a lab and zoonotic spillover both remain viable.” washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/…
In Chinese language @bbcchinese
"A group of world-renowned scientists with relevant experience also recently wrote in Science magazine, criticizing that the previous WHO report did not take this [lab leak] hypothesis seriously enough." bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/…
"We must take hypotheses about both natural and laboratory spillovers seriously until we have sufficient data," the scientists wrote in @ScienceMagazine
In @TIME
"Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra called for a fresh investigation into the virus’ origins.. He joins prominent scientists who are similarly expressing skepticism about the early conclusions and urging further study" time.com/6051414/donald…
In @ScienceMagazine itself
"virologists, epidemiologists and other scientists also called for further investigation.. accidental release from a lab and zoonotic spillover both remain viable." sciencemag.org/news/2021/05/b…
In @Forbes
"scientists argued the lab accident hypothesis is still “viable” and deserves to be studied, and President Joe Biden said Wednesday U.S. intelligence agencies haven’t reached a conclusion on the lab accident.. or the animal spillover theory." forbes.com/sites/joewalsh…
And @abcnews
"a group of renowned scientists earlier this month penning a letter in Science Magazine that concluded, "Theories of accidental release from a lab and zoonotic spillover both remain viable."" abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden…
"a May 14 letter to Science magazine, signed by 18 scientists, called for “a proper investigation” and “dispassionate science-based discourse on this difficult but important issue”" theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
“From the beginning, the virus’s origin has been unclear. All along, some scientists, politicians and journalists have argued that the lab-leak theory deserves consideration.”
And the @spectator by @mattwridley
"a letter in Science magazine from 18 senior virologists and other experts — including a close collaborator of the Wuhan lab at the centre of the debate, Ralph Baric — demanded that such a hypothesis be taken seriously." spectator.co.uk/article/the-co…
“I’m completely open-minded about the possibilities,” @VirusesImmunity said. “There’s so little evidence for either of these things, that it’s almost like a tossup.”
In @BBC
"A prominent group of scientists criticised the WHO report for not taking the lab-leak theory seriously enough - it was dismissed in a few pages of a several-hundred-page report." bbc.com/news/world-asi…
In Canada @CBCNews
"perhaps the biggest catalyst for another look at the virus's origins came earlier this month, with a letter published in Science, signed by 18 scientists, asking for a "proper investigation" into the origins of COVID-19" cbc.ca/news/health/co…
"Even though there is very little evidence for any of these possibilities, that report basically said that the lab is extremely unlikely... So as a scientist, it feels a bit awkward without any data to conclude the likeliness of these scenarios in this manner." @VirusesImmunity
"[The WHO-convened study] was framed in such an unreasonable way.. Putting out a 300 page report on the origins of the virus that can't conclude anything except that it concludes very firmly that it didn't come from the lab — that's the lady doth protest too much." @DFisman
"However, there is no solid scientific basis for such dismissal. Almost a year and a half after the outbreak, there is still essentially no direct evidence available either for zoonotic spillover or for a lab leak."
"Moreover, the latter possibility has hardly been investigated"
In @TIME
"On May 14, 18 prominent scientists—including Ralph Baric, a virologist who has worked with Wuhan Institute of Virology chief scientist Shi Zhengli—published a letter in the journal Science that called for a new investigation" time.com/6052346/china-…
"a letter published in the eminent journal Science by 18 researchers called for a "proper investigation" into the origins of COVID-19. It wasn't the first call, but it seemed to reverberate the loudest." cnet.com/news/the-coron…
And @Forbes
“This followed a group of 18 prominent scientists in mid-May deeming the lab theory “viable” and pushing for it to be more closely investigated.”
"In May, 17 scientists from Harvard, Yale, MIT, Stanford, and other leading institutions, including Chan, joined Bloom in a letter in Science calling for a thorough investigation of the Wuhan lab." newsweek.com/exclusive-how-…
In @Slate
“prominent virologists, epidemiologists, and public health researchers, published a letter in the journal Science... Soon after, President Joe Biden asked U.S. intelligence agencies to redouble their investigation into the virus’s origins” slate.com/technology/202…
In @AlJazeera "The experts criticised the WHO-commissioned investigation, saying the two theories were not given “balanced consideration” while noting that only four of the 313 pages of the report addressed the possibility of a laboratory accident." aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/6/…
“We must take hypotheses about both natural and laboratory spillovers seriously until we have sufficient data,” reads a letter published in the journal Science in May 2021, co-authored by 18 researchers.
On finding the origin of Covid-19,
“It’s just bigger than any one scientist or institute or any one country — anybody anywhere who has data of this sort needs to put it out there” - @DavidRelman
I encourage experts who have insisted on a natural origin of Covid-19 to gracefully change their public stance instead of doubling down on the threadbare evidence for the wet market hypothesis.
You could acknowledge that you initially trusted your colleagues in China/US to tell the truth. But time and time again over the past 5 years, it has been shown that they withheld critical evidence from you and the public:
1⃣The 2018 Defuse proposal
2⃣Low biosafety standards for experiments where live viruses are produced and used in human cell infection studies
3⃣Risky pathogen experiments and surprising gain of function
4⃣Missing pathogen sample database, viruses discovered after 2015 largely not shared with US collaborators
5⃣Closest virus relative that we know of was collected from a mine where people died from suspected SARS-like virus infection
The studies published last month where Wuhan scientists experimented with potentially dangerous pathogens at low biosafety opened your eyes to the level of reckless ambition in their research.
Given these betrayals, it is fully within reason to retract your trust and re-evaluate all the available evidence. Those of you who have access to intelligence could say that the non-public evidence has cast a new light on the public evidence and strengthens the case for a lab origin of Covid-19.
This is better than continuing to argue that you somehow know all the viruses in the Wuhan lab's collection and somehow know they didn't follow through on their 2018 plans to put furin cleavage sites into SARS-like viruses and study these at low biosafety exactly like they said they would.
For those experts who haven't even looked at the Defuse proposal and its drafts, the Wuhan-US scientists clearly said they were interested in furin cleavage sites at the spike S1/S2 junction, and would insert these into novel SARS-like viruses in the lab (not closely related to the 2003 SARS virus as that would be dangerous). They would test the ability of these SARS-like viruses with inserted cleavage sites to infect human cells and cause pathogenesis in vivo.
The Wuhan lab was regularly synthesizing novel coronavirus genomes without leaving any sign of lab manipulation. They used a protocol with trypsin-supplemented media to retain cleavage sites in the viruses. They did much of the work, including infection experiments in human cells, at BSL-2. Their US collaborator Ralph Baric has repeatedly criticized them for doing the work at low biosafety.
h/t @emilyakopp for FOIA'ing the Defuse proposal drafts.
Some virologists may argue that the furin cleavage site in SARS-CoV-2 doesn't look canonical. You should read the citation in the Defuse draft for the computational model used to predict furin cleavage sites. The paper says it doesn't rely on the canonical motif and instead looks at a 20-residue sequence to make its predictions. The PRRAR motif exists in a feline coronavirus, MERS has a PRXXR S1/S2 furin cleavage site, and the RRXR motif is a functional furin cleavage site in numerous other proteins.
According to Zeit Online, German Chancellery consulted with US Director of National Intelligence in 2023, who said there was nothing to the lab leak hypothesis.
They doubted "Eierköpfe" (egghead) scientists in intelligence knew better than leading virologists around the world.
In the US, something similar was happening where scientists in intelligence agencies also assessed a likely lab origin of Covid but were sidelined.
"The dominant view within the intelligence community was clear when... the director of national intelligence, and a couple of her senior analysts, briefed Biden... concluded with “low confidence” that Covid-19 had emerged when the virus leapt from an animal to a human." wsj.com/politics/natio…
In both cases, government leaders favored the opinions of leading virologists over the scientists working in intelligence. Even though some of the leading virologists were public advocates and funders of "gain-of-function" research of concern with pathogens.
I am not 100% convinced Covid came from a lab. I still think there is a small chance the virus emerged in Wuhan without the help of research activities. However, this would mean:
1⃣ The Wuhan-US scientists' entire framework about the spillover risks of SARS-like viruses, building on research and data collected over more than a decade, was incorrect.
2⃣ A highly transmissible, super stealthy virus well adapted for causing uncontrollable outbreaks in multiple animal species left zero trace of its origin in the wildlife or fur farms of China/SE Asia after emerging in only Wuhan out of 1000s of other populous cities.
3⃣ Out of all possible viruses to cause a pandemic and all times for a pandemic to occur, it was an unprecedented SARS-like virus with a novel furin cleavage site, matching the description of a 2018 US-Wuhan research proposal, emerging in Wuhan where scientists worked with such viruses at low biosafety, less than 2 years after said proposal was drafted.
It's not impossible that leading experts were completely mistaken about the exceedingly low odds of such viruses emerging in Wuhan.
It's not impossible that, in 2019, nature churned out a virus matching the scientists' 2018 research plans and that virus emerged in only Wuhan of all places.
But you'd have to be very motivated to believe Covid-19 emerged naturally.
We are unlikely to reach 100% certainty unless a whistleblower appears or the Chinese authorities one day assess that it is in their interest to share the truth.
I am still hopeful that this will happen one day. I believe in human courage.
Before that day, there are several routes of investigation that remain to be explored by the US gov.
Conducting a rigorous, credible investigation of Covid origins can unearth more key evidence while also informing the implementation of new measures to prevent lab pandemics.
Top journals have the power to set global biosafety standards.
It's a problem that they do not see this as their moral responsibility. By publishing & celebrating risky research done at questionable biosafety, they incentivize the 'work fast break things' model of research.
I've given up on journals taking the initiative to be responsible members of the scientific community.
It is up to the U.S. government to tell them to behave responsibly or do business elsewhere.
I would love to be corrected if any top journal can show us that fostering a culture of accountability, scientific integrity, and 'do no harm' is one of their measurable goals as an organization & a strict criteria for decision-making regarding what research/groups to publish.
Dear @NSAGov I've just google searched several human transmissible viruses with the aim of understanding how many are not governed by the Federal Select Agents Program and can be used in gain-of-function research by privately funded groups.
I am not doing anything nefarious 🙏
@NSAGov The answer is there are a lot of human transmissible viruses that are not governed by the Federal Select Agents Program and can be used in gain-of-function research by privately funded groups.
@NSAGov Novel SARS-like and MERS-like viruses are not select agents. Meaning scientists in the US can bring these to their labs in major cities and enhance them without informing the authorities.