Bitcoin and its potential to impact CPI (this is not a BTC bull or bear thread, just chill).

Okay so one of the things that's fascinating about crypto is that it has been a retail-led phenomenon.

Lots of people early into the trade have seen their NW increase by a lot.
So the idea that BTC's rise could be creating a pretty intense 'wealth effect' sort of makes sense.

And while many are dedicated HODLers, certainly not everyone is - people do sell a bit and buy things.

So this BTC bull run could well be a *driver* of recent spending...
But of course given the high volatility, the inverse is also true.

If you're mostly a crypto investor and you've just taken a huge haircut on your portfolio (I know you're still crushing or whatever don't @ me), you're less inclined to spend here and more inclined to wait.
And given the size of the swings you're talking a big psychological footprint - the crypto pullback here is the size as last March's pullback in equities!

Now I know people will say this is nothing new for crypto, and I agree - last cycle had pullbacks of this size.

Last cycle the market cap (you don't @ me either, skeptics, we're talking wealth effect here so optics matter) was much, much smaller.

Any inverse wealth effect would have been almost imperceptible in comparison.

Let's see how strong spend is after this...

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More from @coloradotravis

16 May
It's tempting to think of the entire tech sector as groundbreaking stuff. And it is, often, but that's not really the meat and potatoes of tech.

We, like Wall St., are mostly in the repackaging business.
Tech companies tend to start as awesome new stuff and then as they grow larger the marginal return on innovation decreases.

As companies grow, the profit incentive becomes *efficiency* (picking up pennies across the already massive user base) vs. early stage's *attraction*
And so this unfortunately leads them to become increasingly user-hostile. When attraction is what you need to be good at to grow, you invest in UX.

When extraction is how you grow, you invest more in UX but like... the dark patterns & "staff of psychologists" version.
Read 5 tweets
14 May
Bitcoin: a technical primer

Okay so in my role as a wet blanket, I often see claims being made about the revolutionary nature of BTC tech.

Let’s talk about that for a minute.
Because the actual software is relatively simple.

In fact the whole contraption is not unlike a giant collaborative word document, when it comes to the tech - the data structures are even similar.

So let’s imagine it as one.
Let’s imagine Bitcoin is a word doc. And it’s a document that we all write down who owns what, and we all have our own little copy of it.

And then periodically we unify these into a canonical version.

So what’s fun is that this software pattern exists everywhere.
Read 13 tweets
9 May
Heard the following story from a manager at a car dealership:

When they buy cars, they have a certain time period to sell them otherwise they start getting charged fees by the parent company (who makes the cars).

So taking a bunch of inventory is a risk.
When covid hit, nobody really knew what would happen so the vast majority of the dealerships cut their orders back by a lot (not wanting to get caught holding a lot of stock & the associated carry cost of that inventory).

This particular dealership didn't.
They took a more bullish stance and figured they'd be able to move the cars, so they upped their order and are now slaying it.

Remember that tweet about the dealership trying to charge me above MSRP because the car was 'rare'?

Well it probably was. Like, for them.
Read 7 tweets
7 May
Okay so one of the games I like to play is "how is everyone right?"

Especially with charged up shit like economic policy.

Let's have a go shall we?
So this unemployment thing - there are a bunch of classically econ- "-progressive" and "-conservative" takes out there, but for the sake of brevity let's reduce them to simple caricatures of their respective positions.

First the conservative one.
Econ-conservatives kinda believe that, since the government is paying people to not work, they're not working.

They'd hold that the policies here are insane, and pandemic support is creating a ton of damage and ruining the available supply of labor.

"You're killing SMBs."
Read 10 tweets
25 Apr
One of the most interesting things about this trip has been seeing the delta in how CA and CO are approaching covid.

Very, very different response styles.

I could see this significantly altering my read on things if we lived out here.
Pretty sure I almost got murdered this morning for not putting a paper cup in the compost bin.

You see - where I’m from the fact that I put it in the recycling would already make me an eco-fascist hippie, but like... apparently not here.

I might need a guide.
Update: Portland just emailed saying I’m no longer welcome in their country.
Read 4 tweets
13 Apr
Let's talk about nominalizations.

Yay Linguistics! (said nobody ever...)
What's a nominalization?

Well it's when you turn a non-noun word into a noun.

Like "requirement." This actually comes from a verb (to require) and we just like ret-con that sucker into a noun.

So why do we care?
Well, these nominalizations have a way of confounding us since they act like 'things' but aren't really 'things.'

Let's take a word like "safety." Safety isn't really a thing.

It comes from an adverb (safe) and so the origin of the concept is like "I want to feel safe."
Read 14 tweets

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