Aaron Reichlin-Melnick Profile picture
May 19, 2021 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
I've been out on vacation for a few days so haven't posted this daily chart, but now that I'm back, time to talk about a not-so-good week the Biden administration is having.

After two straight weeks of progress, the number of kids in custody has unexpectedly hit a plateau.
One of the reasons this week hasn't seen a plateau is that there are a few hundred more unaccompanied children coming to the border this week compared to last week. But that could easily be normal variance and the trendline is still good.
The real concern is releases from ORR custody to sponsors. Last week was the first week since the Biden administration began reporting daily numbers that we saw the average number of children released to sponsors go *down.* And this week is on track for another drop!
The combination of falling numbers of releases to sponsors and (as of this week) a small increase in unaccompanied children coming to the border means that the trendline on net changes in children in custody has been going in the wrong direction for a few days.
All of this could easily be a few day speed bump and we could see numbers start going back down again within the next week or so.

This isn't the first time we've seen a speed bump in this process either. So this could easily be normal variance.
This week shows that the Biden administration's response to unaccompanied children is still quite fragile. Lots of successes but we're not out of the woods.

To end this thread with some good news, we're about to drop below 20,000 kids in custody for the first time since April 6.

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More from @ReichlinMelnick

Oct 8
Not sure exactly what @whstancil is suggesting but a couple thoughts:

1. Migration is rising globally. The United States is not unique in dealing with this trend, despite many US-centric media takes.
2. A key part of the current problem is Congress's decade-long refusal to act.
People are frustrated with migration not only because of the media's myopic and overdramatic views of the issue (remember the morning show filmed at the border wall in March 2021?), but also because policymakers keep suggesting this is an easy problem with an easy solution.
We have a 2,000 mile land border that people have been crossing in the millions for 50+ years. We have an economy built on the labor of people who are more likely to be exploited and less likely to have a recourse. And we don't let even those here for decades "fix their papers."
Read 6 tweets
Sep 28
This is wrong. ICE’s non-detained docket includes many people whose cases ended years ago and who can’t be deported due to legal, diplomatic or humanitarian issues.

The number of people on the docket with convictions rose just 15% in 9 years — while the docket itself rose 225%.
Image
Here is Tom Homan's testimony to Congress in support of Trump's FY 2018 budget request, noting that in June 2017, there were 177,000 people on ICE's non-detained docket with prior convictions AND final orders.

As I said—many have been here for decades. This isn't some new thing. Furthermore, abolishment of the Priority Enforcement Program and re-establishment of the Secure Communities program, combined with the expansion of the 287(g)2 program, is expected to result in significant increases to interior apprehensions and removals. As of June 3, 2017, there were 968,773 individuals on ICE’s non-detained docket with final orders of removal, of which 177,496 were convicted criminals. In order to safely and securely carry out this mission across the Nation, ERO will require additional deportation officers to handle this increased workload. The FY 2018 Budget supports hi...
Here is some further context on *why* someone might be on ICE's non-detained docket with a serious conviction but not deported.

I explained some scenarios where this might happen yesterday in the below thread.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 27
This report by @BillMelugin_ gets facts wrong and omits essential context: that millions of people on ICE's non-detained dockets have been here for decades.

By FY 2015, already 368,574 people on the docket had convictions. Many can't be deported, often for diplomatic reasons.
Image
In the report, Bill repeatedly refers to people on ICE's non-detained docket as "illegal immigrants."

In fact, the non-detained docket contains many people who came here with green cards and then lost their status due to a criminal conviction. Some have been here for decades. Image
Many of those on ICE's non-detained docket who have a final order of removal but haven't been deported yet come from countries which refuses deportations.

As of 2022, there were 40,000 post-order Cubans living in the US. Many got out of jail decades ago.
miamiherald.com/news/nation-wo…
Read 11 tweets
Sep 15
Trump here uses the phrase "remigration." I was unfamiliar with the term, so I googled it.

Wikipedia describes it as a "far-right and Identitarian political concept" largely used to describe the mass deportation of non-white immigrants and their descendants from Europe.
Image
Needless to say, the use of such a loaded far-right term suggesting a purge of non-white people in the US far greater than described would itself be newsworthy in a normal world. But given how much else has happened just in the last 24 hours, it's barely even been noticed.
Yep, though given how poorly Operation Janus did the first time around and how tough it is for the US government to denaturalize people, I suspect that’s more about driving support from the base than actual policy (which is not to say it shouldn’t be taken seriously).
Read 5 tweets
Sep 5
That's roughly $1,841 per person. By comparison, a bus ticket to New York costs about $215, while a flight costs about $350.

It would have WAY cheaper to just give migrants money for tickets. Abbott's effort not only made it a political stunt, it lined a contractor's pocket.
The overwhelming majority of migrants didn't want to stay in Texas. They wanted to go elsewhere. So if the question was the most efficient way to help them leave the state, the answer would be just buy them tickets and not pay millions to bus them to NYC.
They are able to live wherever they want while they go through the court process. It's just that many people used up every last cent to get here, so a free bus from Abbott was a very enticing option, especially since it was going to known option like NYC.
Read 5 tweets
Aug 19
It's here! The biggest executive action since DAPA/Extended DACA in 2014 just dropped on the Federal Register in the form of a "Notice of Implementation." Here's a 🧵on the Biden admin's new program for undocumented spouses and stepchildren of US citizens. public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2024-18725.pdf

Screenshot of the first page of the "Notice of Implementation" of the Keeping Families Together program.
Before I dive into the fine details, a reminder of why this new program matters.

Even though spouses of US citizens are eligible to apply for green cards, a 1996 law keeps that process out of reach for many undocumented immigrants. Read 👇 for more.
In June, Biden announced "Keeping Families Together," letting undocumented spouses of US citizens receive immigration "parole."

This would not only give deportation protections, it unlocks the path to a green card without risking 10 years of separation.
americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/biden…
Read 18 tweets

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