Livetweeting the inaugural lecture of my pal @ReintJanRenes of the @HvA about "the climate split".
He's an expert in behavior and climate and important researcher in 'my' NEONresearch.nl.
He starts with a round table with the rector of the HvA, and @helgavanleur and...
Amsterdam councilor or sustainability @mvdoorninck explains her run in with NIMBY and windmills. Love that she says this is the biggest transition since the industrial revolution. Agree 100%. And of course the point that everybody must have a say in this enormous transition.
More information in the booklet that I will link to later
What he WILL tell:
Why climate is important?
Why behavior is important?
Why changing behavior is so hard?
What can we (and @ReintJanRenes and his group) and do about it.
Papers are increasingly talking about the climate emergency. ReintJan sums up why.
Personal choices are (directly and indirectly) responsible for 84% of emissions.
So we should not say Shell has to solve it. We have to solve it together.
1) Some behavioral changes are hard and require automatic behaviors.
2) We have to do it together. Which is often hard when you think: what does it matter.
3) It can be hard if you feel it's not about you
4) The time horizon (the long and winding road) is long
5) It's abstract. You can't see CO2 and it's all so far away.
What can we do? For action we need
- capacity (that we have time to think about it etc.)
- motivation (why is it useful? who am I? etc.)
- occasion (social influence, rules/regulation, etc.)
Often this is not yet part of policy.
They work with the spark circle (not to be confused with my sparkcity model ;-)
This is going to fast for me but it's similar to the Deming quality circle but more specified for research into behavior. And this leads to specific interventions that work.
The entire team of the electorate. Milan and Helena are working for NEONresearch.nl with the other PhD students.
He is mentioning me as the person that got him to join NEON! I did not expect that. Back at ya @ReintJanRenes ! Really look forward to our collaboration and combining technology and behavior to create really useful pathways to sustainability.
Thanking all the people and organisations that brought him to this historical moment. I'm (Auke) am often thinking we are all standing on the shoulders of giants and our institutions that we build over the year. The End.
It's official (if you look real closely).
A link to the booklet (in Dutch) with a lot of theory but a simple conclusion: preaching won't work and we can only create this transition if we acknowledge the worldview of others and honestly try to understand what drives *them*. hva.nl/content/evenem…
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The heathen Gods have gathered on mount Olympus for a feast. Sun god Apollo is recognizable by his halo, Bacchus (Dionysus) by the grapes, Neptune (Poseidon) by his trident, Diana (Artemis) by the moon, Venus (Aphrodite) by Cupid.
If you add batteries to solar PV, not all energy has to flow through batteries. But let's keep it at $0.01 and add that to the price of solar. That makes PV (and wind) SUPER cheap!
Batteries must be discounted more quickly you say?
Cheap stationary batteries will pave the way for wind and solar in cheap and resilient energy grids. Unfortunately the @IEA is mispredicting it (again).
Many of my followers know this picture: it visualizes how the IEA underestimates solar. Now I see basically the same problem in their new battery report.
The IEAs new battery report gives a lot of great info on batteries but also two predictions taken from their authoritative world energy outlook: 1) STEPS which is basically business as usual 2) NZE (Net Zero Emissions) which is aspirational iea.org/reports/batter…
I used the Sunday afternoot to describe how I think that dirt cheap batteries will completely transform our electricity grid, paving the way for solar and wind and replacing grid reinforcements with grid buffers aukehoekstra.substack.com/p/batteries-ho…
This is something I'm working on for different government and grid operator projects, but I never realized just how cheap sodium batteries could become and how much of a game changer that will be.
So I used my Sunday evening to write this and would love your feedback!
First I look at the learning curve and then we see it is extremely predictable: every doubling of production has reduced prices by around 25%.
It's even steeper and more predictable than solar panels, the poster child of this type of learning curve.
(More details on substack.)
Aaaand we have another winner of the "EVs and renewables can never happen because of material scarcety" sweepstake. I thought @pwrhungry was more serious. Let me explain why this is misleading bollox.
First of all, notice how his argument is mainly that Vaclav Smil says this and HE is an authority.
Why bother to write a substack that basically parrots someone else?
Because you don't really understand it yourself and needed to write another substack maybe?
I'm a bit tired of this because Bryce abuses Smil the same way most people who are against renewables abuse him. They emphasize this is a serious and revered figure that knows numbers. They make it about the messenger, not the argument.