Six in ten Ontarians are living in health regions with high or substantial #covid19 school transmission risk. #onted #onpoli
Estimated school transmission risk levels for public health units, with population on the left (in thousands). This does not account for future vaccinations, higher transmission due to B.1.617 variant growth, low testing, future opening of businesses, or high local hotspot risks. Image
All I am asking for is a little #precautionaryprinciple after so many failed attempts to stem infections without school closures. All I'm asking is that we wait a few more weeks to actually see B.1.617 data and open cautiously where transmission risks are lowest. Just this once. Image
There is controversy in the UK about the extent of transmission risk in schools due to B.1.617.2. If there is that uncertainty as well, why the rush? Give this fact-finding process more time. The ultimate question is whether the risk/benefits favour opening or closing.
I have not seen anyone describe that risk/benefit, though I agree there are (temporary?) issues tied to children's health on one side of the equation. But an equation has two sides.
Anything that can practically be done to mitigate additional infections related to schools in high risk areas needs to be done. That could include # in-person school days, cohort sizes, distancing, lunch rules, ventilation, hours spent indoors, ...

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More from @Billius27

31 May
Got dm's today from Halton and London saying 12-17 are booking second doses while 80+ are having to wait. Can anyone confirm this?
Related question: Are there any bioethicists left in Ontario? Image
Can someone on the vaccine task force explain this to me? Am I missing something??
cc @BogochIsaac
Read 4 tweets
31 May
There are also some new enhancements to the interactive postal code maps for test positivity and first dose %, including postal code (FSA) highlighters and a new postal code ranking chart for first doses.
public.tableau.com/app/profile/bi… Image
Here's a sample zoom of test positivity. Hover over postal codes to see the stats. Suppressed postal codes (off white) are those with insufficient data. Image
Which postal codes have the highest first dose vaccination coverage? Here they are. Image
Read 4 tweets
31 May
I've now changed the vaccine charts for Ontario to 12+ along with a few other enhancements. More ⤵️
The Vaccination Status box shows how many 12+ have been partially or fully vaccinated. Image
Beside daily and cumulative trends and Partial/Full status, the main chart shows when we can expect 80% of 12+ to have at least one dose. Image
Second doses now have their own chart Image
Read 9 tweets
31 May
What can we make of only 18,226 tests? This is from Sunday lab testing which is usually lower. Testing has been dropping along with positivity and hospitalizations. This suggests that the lower testing may be related to demand and symptom screening. Demand drops when fewer are.. Image
... infected, especially in regions that had been hottest. Hot spot vaccinations would be one reason. Another could be expanded rapid testing which isn't reported by the province. A third reason could be fewer seasonal symptoms like sniffles, so fewer to screen. Another could be
fewer kids being tested outside of the school environment. Asymptomatic do not get screened for a test. There are many reasons for lower testing. If test positivity was going up with fewer tests then we would be more suspicious about the degree of suppressed testing due to
Read 5 tweets
31 May
#Ontario regional summary charts May 31
#onpoli #onhealth #onted #covid19 #COVID19ON Image
Regional map Image
Weekly growth rates Image
Read 5 tweets
31 May
🧵#Ontario key indicators, regional stats and trends
916 new cases. First time below 1,000 since March 6.
Only 18,226 tests but a low 4.3% positivity today.
13 deaths and 617 in ICU.
#Covid19 #Covid19Ontario #onhealth #onpoli #Covidontario
public.tableau.com/profile/bill.c… Image
New case smoothed trend Image
Extremely low testing but positivity is still dropping. Image
Read 8 tweets

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