Covid daily discussions are like

"You cannot compare country x with country y"
"You cannot compare Sweden 🇸🇪 with country z".
"Have you seen paper xyz"
"Look at pop density"

...but there is an ingenious comparison in Europe based on empirical data.

A Lockdown thread.
🧵⬇️ Image
Austria 🇦🇹 vs. Switzerland 🇨🇭

While both countries had similar measures at the beginning of Covid in spring 2020,
Switzerland took a more liberal and, above all, child-friendly path in winter 20/21:
Schools and kindergartens stayed open in winter in Switzerland.

🧵↕️ Image
I will break the thread into 3 sections:

1. Demographics comparison
2. Comparison of measures
3. Comparison of Covid numbers

🧵↕️
Demographics are easy to explain.
Neighboring countries.
Both countries have roughly the same number of inhabitants & average age. Switzerland 🇨🇭 has a higher population density and greater urbanization.

❗️Note for later:
Switzerland 🇨🇭 has a higher population density

🧵↕️ Image
Schools & Child care

Austria 🇦🇹
Fully closed: 10 weeks
Partially closed: 3 weeks

Switzerland🇨🇭
Fully closed: 4 weeks
Partially closed: 0 weeks
-> Spring 2020 only!

No data for child care but should be similar!

Source:
data.unicef.org/resources/one-…

🧵↕️ Image
Masks & rapid tests @ schools
Austria 🇦🇹
Masks depending on school year
Mandatory rapid tests

Switzerland 🇨🇭
Kids in elementary school do not have to wear a mask (a few exceptions for grade 4).
Voluntary rapid tests

Sources
covid19healthsystem.org/countries/aust…
bag.admin.ch/testing

🧵↕️
Masks
Austria 🇦🇹
N95 compulsory in public transport, stores and "other public spaces". Children from 6 to 14 years:
"community masks"

Switzerland 🇨🇭
Community masks, Children under the age of 12 do not have to wear a mask.

usnews.com/news/health-ne…
bag.admin.ch/bag/en/home/kr…
🧵↕️ Image
Hotels:
Austria's hotels were closed for tourist purposes for more than 6 months:
Beginning of November - mid-May

Swiss hotels, including restaurants (for guests), remained open!
reuters.com/article/health…

🧵↕️
Official data on the "lockdown intensity" from @OurWorldInData

As a guide including Sweden
🧵↕️ Image
Reopening

Austria 🇦🇹
"Only people who have been vaccinated against the virus, tested negative or who have been infected with the virus and have recovered are allowed to participate in the reopening."

Switzerland 🇨🇭 treats all people equally.

thelocal.at/20210519/3g-ru…

🧵↕️ Image
Ok, now do the math part:

Based on the higher population density & the more relaxed measures, Switzerland should be in a much worse position than Austria, right?

🧵↕️
Covid Cases
🧵↕️ Image
Covid Death
🧵↕️ Image
"Yes, but Switzerland🇨🇭 has been testing a lot less recently". Ok, that may be true. So, let's look at the Covid independent excess mortality.
It's hard to tell a significant difference here, on the contrary: Immortality has persisted in Switzerland for weeks.

🧵↕️ Image
For your information:
Data on vaccination progress.

🧵↕️ Image
My personal opinion:
Covid is not to be underestimated, but we have been in an illusion of control for months.
The empirical data do not really speak in favor of NPIs (measures & masks). Most of all, what we need is common sense.
Addendum.
As @OurWorldInData does not provide ICU data for Switzerland here is my own graph.
Regarding the opening strategies see above thread ⬆️ Image
Addendum 2
Google Mobility Data
Switzerland has mandated mandatory home office, Austria does not. But the last 6 months:
a) Hardly any differences in the "workplaces" category.
b) Switzerland has been much more mobile in both "Retail / Recreation" & "Transit stations" categories. Image
Addendum 3
Last winter:
Austria 🇦🇹
School closures and mandatory rapid tests @ schools

Switzerland 🇨🇭
Schools open, voluntary rapid tests @ schools Image
Update Austria vs. Switzerland 🧵⬆️

Austria 🇦🇹
😞School closures several weeks last winter
😞Mandatory rapid tests @ schools
😞 Excess death End of June
Switzerland 🇨🇭
🙂Schools open since last summer
🙂Voluntary rapid tests @ schools
🙂Below average mortality first half of 2021 Image

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More from @prof_freedom

27 Jul
20 Dinge, die ich während der "Pandemie" über die Menschheit gelernt habe (oder mir bestätigt wurden)
THREAD.

1/ Die meisten Menschen sind lieber in der Mehrheit, als Recht zu haben.
2/
Mindestens 20 % der Bevölkerung haben starke autoritäre Tendenzen, die unter den richtigen Bedingungen zum Vorschein treten.
3/
Die Angst vor dem Tod wird nur noch von der Angst vor sozialer Missbilligung übertroffen. Letzteres könnte stärker sein.
Read 22 tweets
15 Jul
Neue Covid Fälle "ungeimpft" in UK seit 2 Wochen rückläufig!

Wenn ich mir also ungeimpft das EM-Halbfinale ENG-SPA vor 9 Tagen in einer überfüllten Kneipe angeschaut habe, war ich höchstwahrscheinlich kein Super-Spreader.

Frage: Wie schauts mit geimpften Super-Spreadern aus? Image
Read 8 tweets
7 Jul
RKI - Nationaler Pandemieplan Mai 2007

Interessantes Szenario aus einem 14 Jahre alten Pandemieplan, das die Belastung von Krankenhaus-Kapazitäten anhand "einer moderaten (!!)" Pandemie modelliert und beschreibt.

1
Obwohl es uns (Medien/Politik/Team 🔴) so vorkommt, dass Corona uns deutlich härter trifft als die Grippewellen 1957 oder 1968 blieb die Belastung der Krankenhäuser weit unter der Modellierung aus dem Jahr 2007.

2
Hospitalisiert:
max 12.614 KW 51 vs. 62.000 Pandemie-Plan

Intensiv:
max. 5.745 KW1 vs. 17.800 Pandemie-Plan

▶️ Wir liegen somit laut RKI Pandemie-Plan hinsichtlich der Belastung von Krankenhäusern weit unter einer "moderaten Pandemie".

3
Read 5 tweets
30 Jun
Aufgrund neuer Mutationen bleibt aktuell scheinbar wenig Zeit für eine mediale Aufarbeitung.
Nutzen wir doch mal die aktuell niedrigen Inzidenzen und blicken zurück was im April passiert ist:
Alpha-Mutation (UK), Dritte Welle, Lockerungen, Bundesnotbremse.

Ein Thread.
1/x
In Deutschland wie üblich: Präventionsparadox.
Da lohnt sich ein Blick in die Schweiz.
Dieser Rückblick soll kein Ländervergleich werden, im Gegenteil: Auch in der Schweiz war die Angst vor Alpha (UK Mutation) und einer dritten Welle sehr groß.

2/x
Ich bin der Ansicht, dass wir künftig nur dann rationaler mit Corona umgehen können wenn wir Themen auch aufarbeiten und da gehören falsche Prognosen/Modelle, Interessenskonflikte, Angst und Panikmache nun mal dazu.

3/x
Read 27 tweets
24 Jun
"Wir können nicht warten bis die Krankenhäuser volllaufen, deshalb brauchen die Inzidenz als Frühindikator. Die Inzidenz ist das Beste was wir haben."

Ich lass diese Grafik mal hier so stehen und freue mich auf eine offene Debatte zum Thema "Frühindikator" bzw. Meldeverzug.
1/2
Zum Thema Meldeverzug zur Info 👇
2/2
Read 4 tweets
23 Jun
Update on my 10 month old thread⬇️ adressing many countries counts Covid death far too generously.

Lets start with Sweden.
Cumulative data per mio since 01/01/2020
Covid death: 1431
Excess death: 297 ‼️

What the hell is Sweden counting as a Covid death??

🧵↕️
Next: Norway
Cumulative data per mio since 01/01/2020
Covid death: 144
Excess death: -503 ‼️

🧵↕️
Next: Switzerland
Cumulative data per mio since 01/01/2020
Covid death: 1248
Excess death: 697

🧵↕️
Read 9 tweets

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