Thesis: today is July 24th, 2008

In a previous thread (below), we proposed that a repeat of 2008 is teeing up in macro assets. If so, let's play "what day is today?"

I think it's July 24th, 2008

Let's look at some big macro-y things.

Our friend the Dollar, then and now:
Dr Copper, then and now:
The rock of ages:
Corn, because why not:
Crude (hasn't cracked yet):
Just like back then, people are awfully all in on inflation.

Just like back then, bonds and the dollar are "dead."

Just like back then, the Fed "won't let markets fall."

As above, so below.

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More from @coloradotravis

25 May
By now everyone knows my favorite chart.

It's a chart of the yield curve (above) and then a bunch of macro stuff below, that shows how last cycle we also had a wild run up in commodities before a huge rinse.

Let's look at it in a bit more detail.
Here's copper. You can see that it made a big, rolling top in 2008 before rolling over.

As far as today, it's a little hard to call. Perhaps we're on track for the same sort of thing, culminating this fall. Or just up forever, who knows.

Inconclusive signal here.
Here's silver. Little more interesting in that both display a sort of sustained plateau (each variants on a Wyckoff distribution) - curious to see if silver rolls.

Definitely one to watch.
Read 10 tweets
23 May
I think one of the big deltas in perceptions around liquidity is that when it’s added, it’s permanent.

My sense is this is what inflation concerns are about: liquidity is seen as a permanent net add to a ‘container.’

I don’t think it works like that.
A better mental model might be that the container more like one of those kids’ playhouses with the fan that keeps them inflated.

“Liquidity,” IMO, is a bit more like “how powerful the fan is” in that scenario.
So if more kids get in the playhouse and it gets a bit saggy, you can turn up that fan some more to make the fabric more taut under the load.

I’m a playhouse that load is kids, in an economy it’s debt.
Read 9 tweets
18 May
Bitcoin and its potential to impact CPI (this is not a BTC bull or bear thread, just chill).

Okay so one of the things that's fascinating about crypto is that it has been a retail-led phenomenon.

Lots of people early into the trade have seen their NW increase by a lot.
So the idea that BTC's rise could be creating a pretty intense 'wealth effect' sort of makes sense.

And while many are dedicated HODLers, certainly not everyone is - people do sell a bit and buy things.

So this BTC bull run could well be a *driver* of recent spending...
But of course given the high volatility, the inverse is also true.

If you're mostly a crypto investor and you've just taken a huge haircut on your portfolio (I know you're still crushing or whatever don't @ me), you're less inclined to spend here and more inclined to wait.
Read 5 tweets
16 May
It's tempting to think of the entire tech sector as groundbreaking stuff. And it is, often, but that's not really the meat and potatoes of tech.

We, like Wall St., are mostly in the repackaging business.
Tech companies tend to start as awesome new stuff and then as they grow larger the marginal return on innovation decreases.

As companies grow, the profit incentive becomes *efficiency* (picking up pennies across the already massive user base) vs. early stage's *attraction*
And so this unfortunately leads them to become increasingly user-hostile. When attraction is what you need to be good at to grow, you invest in UX.

When extraction is how you grow, you invest more in UX but like... the dark patterns & "staff of psychologists" version.
Read 5 tweets
14 May
Bitcoin: a technical primer

Okay so in my role as a wet blanket, I often see claims being made about the revolutionary nature of BTC tech.

Let’s talk about that for a minute.
Because the actual software is relatively simple.

In fact the whole contraption is not unlike a giant collaborative word document, when it comes to the tech - the data structures are even similar.

So let’s imagine it as one.
Let’s imagine Bitcoin is a word doc. And it’s a document that we all write down who owns what, and we all have our own little copy of it.

And then periodically we unify these into a canonical version.

So what’s fun is that this software pattern exists everywhere.
Read 13 tweets
13 May
This tweet had a 20% return in 14 mins.

Still climbing. Image
5% return in 15 mins. Image
22% in 2hrs. Image
Read 4 tweets

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