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Yair Rosenberg Profile picture
@Yair_Rosenberg
Jun 3, 2021 • 9 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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My latest: If you're confused about what's going in Israel right now, you're not alone. My latest is an explainer about Israel's potential post-Netanyahu government. Six essential insights about what just happened and what it means for Israel's future: tabletmag.com/sections/israe…
First, it's important to understand that Netanyahu has *not* been replaced. There is a coalition attempting to oust him, but it must hold together long enough to pass a parliamentary vote. This isn't a done deal, and won't be until that happens.
tabletmag.com/sections/israe…
Here's a quick explanation of why Israel hasn't been able to form a government to replace Netanyahu for two years and several elections, and what's changed in the last 24 hours: tabletmag.com/sections/israe…
The proposed new Israeli government will have a right-wing frontman, with a bunch of centrists, leftists, and Arabs running the show behind the scenes. It's an impressive gambit by opposition leader Yair Lapid. It's also going to be ... pretty weird. tabletmag.com/sections/israe…
For the first time in Israeli history, the new proposed government would contain an independent Arab party (an Islamist one, in fact). Its leader, Mansour Abbas, is poised to become the most powerful Arab politician in Israel's history. tabletmag.com/sections/israe…
Israel's most racist politicians were vehemently opposed to the inclusion of any Arab parties in the governing coalition, correctly understanding that Jewish-Arab collaboration in Israeli politics would make it much harder for the right to win elections. tabletmag.com/sections/israe…
Arab voter turnout in Israel has long lagged behind Jewish turnout. But if Arab politicians in the proposed new government deliver tangible gains to their constituents, it could boost that turnout and dramatically erode the right's electoral prospects. tabletmag.com/sections/israe…
This isn't a left-wing government. But it would be a shift to the left. "It’s like replacing Trump with Liz Cheney, but if Cheney couldn’t pass anything w/o the assent of Bernie Sanders, Nancy Pelosi, Ilhan Omar, and Mitt Romney, and if she'd later get replaced w/ Chuck Schumer."
Anyway, there's a lot more in here, including thoughts on how Biden might approach a new Israeli government on everything from Gaza to Iran. Give it a read. tabletmag.com/sections/israe…

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More from @Yair_Rosenberg

Yair Rosenberg Profile picture
Feb 21
I wrote about the Trump supporters who are experiencing buyer's remorse, and how the reality of Trump's presidency cannot sustain the fantasies that were projected onto his campaign: Image
"With every policy he implements and offhand remark he makes, Trump is falsifying the imaginary versions of himself that inspired many of his supporters… As president, he is no longer the vessel into which people can pour their discontent with the status quo."
People who fell for the mirages of a pro-worker or anti-war Trump should have known better: "Attempts to fit Trump into a traditional ideological box will always fail, because he has never met a box he couldn’t sell for parts to the highest bidder. Attempts to cast him as a staunch proponent of American restraint or opponent of corporate greed do not reflect his pre-political career, never fit his first-term policies, and don’t describe his current ones. Rather, these bids to pigeonhole and appropriate Trump are best seen as efforts by intellectuals to impose order on what they don’t understand, or opportunistic attempts by ideologues to bootstrap their program to Trump’s ascendant brand."
Read 4 tweets
Yair Rosenberg Profile picture
Feb 9
This tracks with everything I've covered for years. It's not in people's heads: America is getting more antisemitic, and that starts with the young. When people focus on antisemitic politicians, they need to grasp that in a democracy, those politicians are downstream from voters.
The rise of antisemitism in our society isn't partisan, contrary to what ideologues will tell you. It's generational. And this is why American politics and culture have gotten more antisemitic. Social change is driven by the young, not the old.
Note: They simply asked "do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jews?" Many people won't open admit to antisemitic attitudes bc it's socially undesirable. This shows the erosion of that taboo among the young. The number of antisemites is higher.
Read 4 tweets
Yair Rosenberg Profile picture
Jan 15
My latest: I wrote about how Trump made the Gaza ceasefire happen, why it's not for the reasons you might have heard, and why this deal is much more precarious than you might have been led to believe. Image
Gift link: theatlantic.com/international/…
Two things that are true at once:

The Gaza ceasefire deal is largely the one Biden negotiated in May.

Trump got it over the finish line.

What changed? Hamas knew it wouldn't get a better deal under Trump, and Israel's far-right saw it might get bigger prizes, like West Bank annexation, from him, and wanted to stay on his good side. In other words, it’s not that Trump had a stick with which to beat Israel that Biden didn’t have; it’s that his presidency holds out the prospect of carrots that Biden would never offer.
Read 5 tweets
Yair Rosenberg Profile picture
Aug 8, 2024
Biden did exactly this, it did not work. Harris was there and saw it happen. As the saying goes, she didn't just fall out of a coconut tree.
Important context for Harris telling off the protesters is that it was the second time they'd interrupted her and she had personally met with family members of those killed in Gaza before the rally. Politicians get less receptive when it seems like nothing they do is credited. Image
In general, if you want to influence a politician, you have to bargain and give them a little space, not just make constant demands, or they will determine that you can't be appeased and aren't worth it.
Read 4 tweets
Yair Rosenberg Profile picture
Aug 5, 2024
SHOCKING Shapiro revelations:

*Voted to condemn UN resolution against Israeli settlements that Obama allowed to pass
*Participated in AIPAC conference, called Israel "our truest and closest ally in the region, with a commitment to values of personal freedoms and liberties, surrounded by a pretty tough neighborhood"
*Met with Netanyahu personally, released photo to media
*Said of campus protests, "I think when Jewish students are telling us they feel unsafe in that, we need to believe them, and I do believe them... Creating a space where political dissent or political rallying can happen is one thing. Intimidation is another."
*Said in June: "the ability of Jewish people to self-determine themselves is foundational...The failure to recognize the state of Israel is taking away that self-determination. So it is antisemitic."
Oh, sorry that was Tim Walz:








You can go back to not caring. #GenocideJosh congress.gov/bill/115th-con…
web.archive.org/web/2010060123…
tpt.org/almanac/video/…
startribune.com/st-paul-counci…
Image
When I wrote my article about the super selective campaign against Josh Shapiro over Israel, I focused on Mark Kelly's Israel positions because he was co-leading prediction markets at the time, and didn't discuss Walz's much. There's plenty.
Read 7 tweets
Yair Rosenberg Profile picture
Jun 2, 2024
1. Anyone who's closely followed the leaks to Israeli and Middle Eastern media knows that Biden's ceasefire/hostage deal proposal is Israel's proposal, which largely matches Hamas's demands. Biden made it public because he has good reason to believe both parties might still reject it and he wants to call their bluffs.
2. Throughout the war, Israel (under significant US pressure) has made increasingly generous deal offers to Hamas. Each time, Hamas has moved the goalposts and come up with new demands. This latest offer matches Hamas's last demands. Biden is making it public to call their bluff. Image
3. Behind closed doors, Netanyahu has repeatedly authorized his negotiators to make far-reaching proposals to Hamas. But the terms are anathema to Bibi's far-right coalition allies. Biden knows this means Bibi might renege on his offer—so he made it public to call Bibi's bluff.
Read 5 tweets

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