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Yair Rosenberg Profile picture
@Yair_Rosenberg
Jun 3, 2021 • 9 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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My latest: If you're confused about what's going in Israel right now, you're not alone. My latest is an explainer about Israel's potential post-Netanyahu government. Six essential insights about what just happened and what it means for Israel's future: tabletmag.com/sections/israe…
First, it's important to understand that Netanyahu has *not* been replaced. There is a coalition attempting to oust him, but it must hold together long enough to pass a parliamentary vote. This isn't a done deal, and won't be until that happens.
tabletmag.com/sections/israe…
Here's a quick explanation of why Israel hasn't been able to form a government to replace Netanyahu for two years and several elections, and what's changed in the last 24 hours: tabletmag.com/sections/israe…
The proposed new Israeli government will have a right-wing frontman, with a bunch of centrists, leftists, and Arabs running the show behind the scenes. It's an impressive gambit by opposition leader Yair Lapid. It's also going to be ... pretty weird. tabletmag.com/sections/israe…
For the first time in Israeli history, the new proposed government would contain an independent Arab party (an Islamist one, in fact). Its leader, Mansour Abbas, is poised to become the most powerful Arab politician in Israel's history. tabletmag.com/sections/israe…
Israel's most racist politicians were vehemently opposed to the inclusion of any Arab parties in the governing coalition, correctly understanding that Jewish-Arab collaboration in Israeli politics would make it much harder for the right to win elections. tabletmag.com/sections/israe…
Arab voter turnout in Israel has long lagged behind Jewish turnout. But if Arab politicians in the proposed new government deliver tangible gains to their constituents, it could boost that turnout and dramatically erode the right's electoral prospects. tabletmag.com/sections/israe…
This isn't a left-wing government. But it would be a shift to the left. "It’s like replacing Trump with Liz Cheney, but if Cheney couldn’t pass anything w/o the assent of Bernie Sanders, Nancy Pelosi, Ilhan Omar, and Mitt Romney, and if she'd later get replaced w/ Chuck Schumer."
Anyway, there's a lot more in here, including thoughts on how Biden might approach a new Israeli government on everything from Gaza to Iran. Give it a read. tabletmag.com/sections/israe…

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More from @Yair_Rosenberg

Yair Rosenberg Profile picture
Apr 17
I wrote about the viral TikTok conspiracy that Jews are trying to ban the platform—pushed by influencers with millions of followers with an assist from Candace Owens—and why such conspiracies misunderstand how political power works and undermine democracy. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
For decades, America has worked assiduously to prevent China from controlling technological infrastructure. Washington led an international campaign to ban Chinese telecom giant Huawei from Western markets. It forced Grindr's Chinese owners to sell it. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…



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Polls show robust public support for a TikTok ban or sale to non-Chinese owners. For years, Gallup has found Americans see China as the country's "greatest enemy." In other words, politicians have strong political & electoral incentives to take on TikTok. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…


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Read 7 tweets
Yair Rosenberg Profile picture
Mar 15
I wrote about the one thing most likely to force new elections in Israel and threaten Netanyahu's reign. It's not anything Biden or Schumer might say or do, but something far more fundamental to Israeli politics at this moment: theatlantic.com/international/…
Since its founding, Israel has had mandatory Jewish conscription into its army, with one notable exception: ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students do not serve. This started as 400 men. It's now 66,000. After October 7, Israeli society is no longer OK with this:
theatlantic.com/international/…
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Mass Israeli public demand to draft the ultra-Orthodox is a huge problem for Netanyahu. The ultra-Orthodox parties provide 18 of his 64 coalition seats. They oppose enlistment. But others in Bibi's government demand it. This could break the coalition.
theatlantic.com/international/…
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Read 4 tweets
Yair Rosenberg Profile picture
Mar 14
The idea that another Israeli government would have the same policies as Netanyahu is one of those fashionable takes that falls apart upon analysis. Polls show that if elections were held today, there'd be a new coalition without Netanyahu *or* the far-right parties. That's huge.
A government without the anti-Arab settler right, without Bibi constantly publicly fighting with the American administration, and without the toxic far-right adjacent members of Likud would govern very differently, including in post-war Gaza.
Netanyahu's supporters know all this. That's why they really really don't want new elections. If they'd be getting the same results no matter who was in power, they would not be so concerned about facing the voters. Not rocket science here.
Read 5 tweets
Yair Rosenberg Profile picture
Mar 4
A lot of people are unfamiliar with recent Gaza developments and so do not know that Israel accepted the Paris framework for a truce/hostage deal but Hamas has not. As a result, they completely misunderstand what Harris is saying, which is that Hamas should say yes to the deal.
What Harris actually said: "There must be an immediate ceasefire for at least the next six weeks, which is what is currently on the table… Hamas claims it wants a ceasefire. Well, there is a deal on the table. And as we have said, Hamas needs to agree to that deal." Quite clear!
IMO, the reason this scrambled people's radars is that the average person does not know that Israel has agreed in principle to the current truce framework but Hamas has not. Many on both sides think Israel is dug in, but it's not.
Read 4 tweets
Yair Rosenberg Profile picture
Feb 1
This is a big deal. Biden just created financial risk for any institution doing business with violent West Bank extremists, and that's going to create a significant deterrent effect beyond just individual extremists who get sanctioned.
If you read it closely, this executive order from Biden is by far the most expansive anti-settler extremism act taken by an American president, and I don't think it's close: whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
Again, Biden's Israel moves today are completely consistent with his longstanding strategy to undermine Netanyahu's coalition by going after its far-right flank and pitting it against the Israeli public. Wrote about it in December:
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Read 8 tweets
Yair Rosenberg Profile picture
Jan 10
Intense Biden pressure on this gets results: Netanyahu forced publicly reject Gazan displacement and Israeli reoccupation, against the far-right parties in his own coalition. This will undermine that coalition, which as I've written, is Biden's point: theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Obviously, Netanyahu regularly reverses course for political convenience, and one statement in English should not be taken as conclusive. The Biden administration knows this from long experience -- I'd expect the pressure on Bibi here to continue.
As I've written, the right-wing campaign to pressure Netanyahu to resettle Gaza isn't going to stop, and neither will the counter-campaign: theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Read 6 tweets

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