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Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
@Sustainable2050
Jun 4, 2021 • 25 tweets • 9 min read • Read on X
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Boat docks in Folsom Lake, California. In @trouw today. Image
Background:
This from 100 miles (160 km) to the north, in Northern California:
53% of the area of these 9 western states is in extreme or even exceptional drought now. Image
74% of California is in extreme or exceptional drought at the moment. Image
The Governor of Utah is already on the case though.
62% of Utah is in exceptional drought, and another 28% is in extreme drought. The lucky few in the North of the state experience severe drought (8%) and moderate drought (2%). Image
Unfortunately, Governor Cox's party is not known for its vigorous pursuit of climate action.
Still no divine intervention in the forecast, unfortunately. Image
On the wildfire risk in this extreme drought:
This chart from the article puts the current drought in the western US in perspective. Image
Here's a northern California reservoir, Lake Oroville. It almost completely missed its spring refill. Water level is now already down to the end-of-year low of recent years, and it clearly won't be able to deliver its normal amounts of water this summer.
Lake Mead, largest reservoir in the western US, drops to its lowest level since it was filling up in 1938:
bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-…
.. and the rate at which Lake Mead's water level is plummeting suggests it's going to get much lower still. Another 0.14 foot (4.3 cm) lost in a day. Image
For the hydropower generated from the Hoover Dam, already 25% below its normal capacity, this means losing another 1 MW each day: cnn.com/2021/06/08/wea… Image
This year's western US drought in perspective: @nytimes compares it with early June drought in the past 20 years. It's bad.
Via @ElizKolbert Image
How Severe Is the Western Drought? See For Yourself. nyti.ms/3pFavdC
.. and the western US drought got worse again last week. 75% of these 9 states is now in the worst three categories:
20% in severe drought
28% in extreme drought
27% in exceptional drought
droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/Sta… Image
And this is what those drought categories mean in practice.
D2 = severe
D3 = extreme
D4 = exceptional Image
The recent development of the drought was particularly bad in California:
Wildfires already raging in Utah, and weather forecast doesn't look good. Image
And the forecast for Phoenix, Arizona, looks even worse: ten days 43-48⁰C, that's 109-118F, and hardly any clouds.
h/t @snowline ImageImage
Two major wildfires raging east of Phoenix. Image
Working in the field at 46-49⁰C: not healthy. (Why can't this be done at dawn or dusk, or even at night, asks this layman?)
Wildfires already ragging in Montana, way up north.

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More from @Sustainable2050

Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
Jun 8
Nasty climate tipping point in sight, especially for NW-Europe! "Nothing drastic will happen at the moment we cross it - which might be soon - but after that the collapse of the current will be unstoppable." And could lead to rapid regional cooling, not so far away from us.
This is a simplified map of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), bringing heat from the South Atlantic, via the Caribbean to the European side of the North Atlantic. On cooling there, the water sinks to 2-3 km depth and takes the cold to the South. Image
Without the AMOC, the North of Europe - especially Iceland, Scandinavia, and Britain - would be much colder than it now is. Image
Read 43 tweets
Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
May 16
Agreement between right-far-right Dutch coalition parties published now. Thread with some points on climate and energy. These are the plans, but execution will of course be key. Wilders and his PVV are in full climate denial, like much of the EU's far right.
1/
- Stick to existing agreements, no higher ambitions than EU policy
- No rules for improving energy efficiency of owner-occupied homes. Obligation (from 2026) to install heat pump on replacing gas-fired heating boiler canceled.
- End of EV subsidies in 2025.
2/
- Study how zero-emission zones in cities kan be delayed to create exceptions for entrepreneurs, but creating such zones remains decision of municipality.
- An end to subsidies for Bio-energy with CCS (for negative emissions) as soon as possible.
3/
Read 9 tweets
Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
Mar 16
Starting a week-long business & pleasure trip to Spain, by train!
Hope to be in Barcelona this evening :)
I'll keep you posted in this🧵 Image
The plan for today: Utrecht - Rotterdam - Paris - Barcelona. The tricky part is changing trains in Paris. Theoretically 2 hours should be more than enough to get from Paris-Nord to Gare de Lyon (the rail planner irresponsibly proposed 1 hour), but @Eurostar is often delayed (2/n) Image
Made it to Rotterdam, at least ;)
Bit very early, but hey, why hurry on a Saturday morning? (3/n)
Image
Image
Read 69 tweets
Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
Jan 28
Reading the Dutch "Action agenda congestion low-voltage grids".
The accelating energy transition already brings grid issues here. In the low-voltage distribution grid, the growing number of solar panels (PV), electric cars (EV) and (hybrid) heat pumps ((h)WP) is the challenge. Image
Without measures, a large and growing number of households would experience periods with too high or too low voltage (over- resp. onderspanning) or risk of grid failure. Image
Measures are categorized in:
1) accelerating grid expansion
2) more efficient use of the grid capacity
3) saving energy as much as possible.

1) already gets a lot of attention, and each of the three main DSOs plans to spend around €1 billion/year. Many hurdles though.
Read 16 tweets
Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
Nov 14, 2023
"Transition doesn't make energy cheaper, but to the contrary, significantly more expensive"
Headline in Dutch @Volkskrant yesterday, 9 days before the elections here. "Consumers and companies will pay 92% more for electricity and natural gas by 2030".
Hmm, let's look into that. Image
Firstly, as others have already pointed out too, it's a comparison between 2020 and 2030. In 2020, energy was cheap: Covid reduced demand, and Russia hadn't started its energy war and attack on Ukraine yet.
Compared with 2023, not a lot would remain of the "+92%". Image
Looking into the forecasted price increase 2020-2030 it has three components:
1. Tax (Belasting) +€5 billion. That'd be a political choice, which has little to do with the energy transition.
2. Grid (Netbeheer) +€5 billion. Increase to be expected indeed.
But ... Image
Read 17 tweets
Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
Oct 7, 2023
Today it's Scotland.
#ClimatechangeisWaterchange
Install bigger pumps. Oh, and reduce emissions to zero, asap.
Seems like the right decision.
(West of Glasgow, Scotland)
Read 4 tweets

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