1/ There's so much wrong with today's CDC report on adolescent hospitalizations with COVID that it took me a while to organize my thoughts. At first I didn't even know where to begin... It's pure propaganda.
2/ First, there was a fearful "teaser" yesterday from @CDCDirector Walensky. Like her "impending doom" video, it was absurd and over-the-top, and completely misrepresented the available data.
3/ In March-April, adolescent hospitalizations increased - that's true. But hospitalizations increased for ALL age groups during the spring surge. And started dropping right after the study period ended on April 24.
4/ The study uses data from COVID-NET hospitals, which covers about 10% of the country (14 states, 99 counties). Here are COVID hospitalizations from COVID-NET for 12-17, with April 24th marked (where they ended the study). Cases and hospitalizations have been dropping since.
5/ To put these numbers in perspective, here are the hospitalization trends for those 12-17 compared to some other age groups. When you do that, the 12-17 line (the dashed gray line) is barely visible on the same scale of hospitalizations per 100K people.
6/ The study also analyzed adolescent COVID hospitalizations from Jan-March, which includes the winter peak in Jan. 45% were found to be for a reason **other than COVID** (psych, OB, surgery, trauma), which is consistent with other studies. So the rates above are way overstated.
7/ The study also tried to compare COVID hospitalization rates with flu hospitalization rates from the past 3 years. But flu hospitalizations aren't overstated like COVID because we don't test all admits for flu.
8/ Flu season also only lasts 3-4 months, but they included 7 months in their comparison, Oct-Mar, which includes the fall/winter/spring COVID peaks across the country.
9/ Finally, the CDC tried to highlight that almost 1/3 of those hospitalized with COVID as the primary reason were admitted to the ICU and 5% needed ventilation, but these are small percentages of small numbers.
10/ The study appears as nothing more than a pathetic attempt to increase fear in parents about the risks to children, despite the actual risks being very small. The media ran with "teen hospitalizations increasing!" headlines and left off "in April" - exactly as planned. Fixed:

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More from @KelleyKga

7 Oct 20
1/ 🧵There's been a lot of talk about % positive in Georgia after today's briefing with @GovKemp and Dr. Toomey of @GaDPH. I wanted to provide some clarification. There are several % positive numbers on the DPH web site right now, and it can be confusing. #covid19ga #gapol
* Overall % Positive for all PCR tests. It's at 10.0% today, down from 11.0% in August.
* % Positive for PCR tests reported today. This fluctuates and can sometimes include old tests with high % positive due to data dumps.
* Overall % Positive for Antibody tests. (Ignore) Image
* 2 Week % Positive for state/counties (on the Testing map). This is all the positive labs _collected_ in the past 2 weeks divided by all the tests _collected_ in the past 2 weeks, so it's not affected by data dumps. USE THIS NUMBER!!!

It's down to 5.9% from 6.0% a week ago. Image
Read 8 tweets
15 Sep 20
1/ There's a "School Aged COVID-19 Surveillance Report" out from @GaDPH about COVID among kids 0-22. It's got some good information, but not a lot we didn't already know, and most of the graphs only go through 8/31, but here's a thread with my key takeaways... #covid19ga #gapol
2/ Statewide, cases among those <18 have been dropping since our July peak, with a small bump in early August as many schools started back up - mostly among 14-17 age range.
3/ Cases among 18-22yo spiked in late August, as colleges returned but data from this past week on the DPH site shows cases in 18-29 range falling in Sept. This is consistent with DPH data from counties with colleges.
Read 10 tweets
19 Aug 20
Evidence of the recent backlog we had in case reporting in GA... From late June to early July, while cases were rising sharply, we were under reporting because labs got behind. In recent weeks, we've been over reporting as labs catch up on the backlog. (1/4) #covid19ga #gapol
Our cases peaked and started falling the week ending July 11, before case reports peaked. Risk levels that are based on *reported* cases in the past week or two are very misleading, because we were reporting cases from July, for people who aren't even infectious anymore. (2/4)
But the backlog is clearing up. Last week, we started reporting fewer old cases, and this week is starting off even better, with 86% of reported cases current so far this week. (3/4) public.tableau.com/views/WeeklyRe…
Read 4 tweets

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