Mike Mihajlovic Profile picture
Jun 7, 2021 12 tweets 6 min read Read on X
On this day, 7 June 1981, one of the most daring bombing missions in history took place. 8 Israeli Air Force F-16 bombed Iraqi nuclear reactor in al-Tuwaitha. This attack was the final blow to Sadam's nuclear program. Preparation for this Operation Opera started much earlier.
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Meticulous planning and clandestine operations by Mossad that included even information exchange with Iranians resulted in precise situation analysis which helped IAF planners to use all the weaknesses that Iraqi AD had. The route through KSA was carefully chosen...

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to exploits radar cover gaps in Iraqi AD culminating the precise timing when Iraqis are the most vulnerable-time for an evening meal when the radars & launchers crews are relaxed, turning off their radars. This repeating time frame became a pattern that was dully recorded.

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As per some sources, on 7 June al-Tuwaitha was defended with at least 3 2K12/SA-6 batteries combined with 2 ZSU 23/4 and 2 ZSU 57/2 batteries. Considerable AD asset (brigade-size) for a small geographic location. Some Strela -2 MANPADs were also present.

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During the first Iranian attack, on 30 September 1980. 1 SA-6 battery, 3 Roland SHORAD batteries, and 3-4 ZSU 23/4 and 57/2 defended the site.
After this attack, the AD was reinforced and defense in depth was established.

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The brigade-size defense is optimal for the high-value site defense. AD can also count on the interceptors. However, poor planning and execution with the repeated "patterns" contributed to that formidable defense on paper was easy to catch off guard and exploit the "crack".

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Not a single long-range Iraqi radar was able to pick up low flying F-16s while at the time of the attack, missile battery fire control radars 1S91 were turned off. Some ZSU-23/4 were on but that was not enough to initiate coordinated defense action.

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The crews manned their combat stations when Israeli planes were on the way back home. The Iraqi AD had failed to bring down even one plane and not one MiG had been scrambled. It was a repeat of the same sorry performance against the Iranians nine months earlier.

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Failure to protect the most valuable site as a consequence had the head of Iraq's Western Air Defense Zone, Colonel Fakhri Hussein Jaberall, and all officers above the rank of major executed (as per the press all battery commanders and possibly some lower ranks as well).

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Among the Israeli pilots who bombed the reactor was Iftach Spector, who on 8 June 1967 while flying Mirage III, attacked USN Liberty - "the day when Israel attacked the US"... just a day short of the anniversary.

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Interestingly, he was not a member of the original team but pulling his "connections" and as a base commander, he succeeded to be included. He was also the only one which 2 Mk-84 bombs missed the reactor building.

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Documentary movie about the raid:


This "Begin Doctrine" was repeated against the Syrian nuclear program in Operation Orchard on 6 September 2007.

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More from @MihajlovicMike

Jun 4, 2023
🇺🇦 must launch a counteroffensive. There is no question of yes or no, but rather when. Billions are invested, thousands trained so that must yield results. When it happens, and when the first 🇺🇦 troops roll over the first 🇷🇺 line, the media will be jubilant...

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In the first days and weeks, retired generals turned into military experts will explain with arrows and circles on the major TV Media progress, presidents will speak with a smile on their faces, and glasses will be raised with salutes to glory and victory...

/2
Then something will start to get weird: the media will report about numerous buildings, roads, schools, hospitals, bridges closed to the frontline destroyed, atrocities, bombings, urgent need for more help, munition, equipment, money and all kind of support...

/3
Read 5 tweets
May 14, 2023
AA short thread on what may happen to the 🇷🇺 planes and helicopters:
It is better to wait and see the official version (and more private information) but it is a hot subject that by all means is a punch to the RuAF.
1st option: A well-executed ambush:

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4 targets within 50 km of the border during the return flight. Crews likely relaxed and off-guard after the mission. What can engage it? For that distance (add 5+ km just for safety (not launching from the border line). It is well within the S-300PS/S-300V engagement zone.

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It is also within the MIM-104 engagement zone. For the Buk-M1 it is over the maximum range so that leaves S-300/S-300V & MIM-104 as a primary suspects. So, how come they were not detected? RF silence - AD unit without fire control radar emission is invisible in the EM field

/3
Read 7 tweets
May 11, 2023
Storm Shadow - a long waited "game changer" (edition nth+) will be used shortly. A missile as a missile is well known. 🇬🇧🇫🇷🇵🇱 team works with 🇺🇦 team to make an adapter it can be carried by the remaining 🇺🇦 planes such as Su-24.

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Target coordinates will be entered in advance, on the ground and the plane needs to get to the launching distance. The problem is that it may be intercepted either by Su-35, MiG-31, or AD. Ideally, the launch shall be at a high altitudes but that is also high risk.

/2
Probably delivered missiles are "stripped" of the maximum range to the so-called export limitation requirements but it wouldn't be a surprise if the "full range" domestic samples are delivered because nobody cares about limitations anymore.

/3
Read 4 tweets
May 11, 2023
A quick thread mentioning hypervelocity dynamics:
What a tiny 3,18 mm steel ball can do to the Ni plate moving 3.4 km/s (10 Mach) (vice versa is also applicable):

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...or projectile rod (crystal rod) impacting RHA target (let say similar to SABOT)...
... or tungsten rod (78 mm) moving 1.5 km/s (4.37 Mach)
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Imagine now two rigid bodies (hardened high alloy steel) colliding. The first one (let's say 400 mm diameter) is moving 4 Mach and the other one (250 mm) is moving 3 Mach. Impact dynamic equations, momentum and conservation of energy equations apply...

/3
Read 5 tweets
May 10, 2023
There are few specialized bombs to destroy hardened surfaces such as as runways, caponiers, bunkers or underground structures such as BetAB-500 and BetAB-500ShP. The second one is with a parachute. The one that Klitchko presented is very similar to BetAB-500 body.

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Now, let's play with some designs: BetAB-500 diameter is 452 mm so theoretically can be put into Kh-47M and voila - Kinzhal with a concrete piercing warhead. For the delivery - speed is there, explosive is there, weight is there...

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But still, can PAC3 intercept it? in theory under certain circumstances maybe but likely no but for the sake of sale everything is allowed. Only a goodwill and much more propaganda is necessary and of course those to believe it. Has that happened recently? highly likely not.
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Read 4 tweets
May 9, 2023
78 years ago, the Nazi army was defeated but the Nazi idea didn't. It left the ruins of Berlin, and through the ratlines and the "paperclip" spread through the world. Some went "below the blanket" and a few years later resurfaced through the democratic institutions.

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Some of those who stayed became respectful citizens and even kept the Reich positions such as "administrators", some went to the new army modeled by allies, some went to politics... (past forgotten??)... some simply hide to pop up half-century after (especially in the east)

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As General Zhukov said: We liberated Europe from fascism, but they will never forgive us for it... Fidel said that "the next war in Europe will be between Russia and fascism, except that fascism will be called democracy"...

the circle is spinning...

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Read 4 tweets

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