The situation in the North West is not good and from the looks of things the rest of the U.K. is catching up. The current wave is slowly mirroring to that of the Autumn/ Winter wave. This is quite clear that #COVID19 is not a seasonal virus. This is evidence we need #ZeroCovid
Cases are on an upmost slope to that of the Autumn wave back in 2020. As you can see the surge began to pick up at 2k cases in Autumn. This wave due to #B16172 seems to be picking up a lot faster and catching up to Autumn rates. πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡
Hospitalisations are extremely worrying, steady rise in comparison to Autumn. As you can see this wave is rapidly catching up. It’s worrying to take into consideration that many hospitalisations are young and vaccinated individuals too (many fully vaccinated). πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡
Deaths looking manageable at the moment, but it’s worth taking into consideration that they are slowly increasing. As cases rise, so will deaths (it always happens). πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡
The data above strictly represents the #NorthWest of England, but we know that many other areas of the U.K. are catching up too. This is how waves begin, yet we have no restrictions in place to prevent this (especially in these hotspot areas).
What will happen?
As I’ve said cases will continue to increase and we will have a #ThirdWave much like that of the January/February wave and a situation a lot like India.
We already know from previous waves that severe hospitalisations lagged two weeks behind increased cases and deaths 3 weeks behind cases, yet we are allowing cases to rise and spill out of control.
A major concern is vaccine efficacy too. As @GabrielScally clearly points out the #B16172 (which is also responsible for the rinsing figures) has a significantly strong response against both #Pfizer and #AstraZeneca. One dose provides very little protection…
Whilst two doses offer reduced protection with only 75% effectiveness where it has been almost 95% effective against prior VOC’s (including Kent) and the original virus strain first located in #Wuhan πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡
Yet, we’re going with this vaccination only approach. It is like putting out a fire on one tree whilst you allow the rest of the forest to burn. Evidence from the #NorthWest shows that this strategy is not working and we have no suppression strategy in place.
Also worth mentioning that our current restrictions won’t help either. We are essentially acting as normal and allowing social contact to continue. This is not what should be happing instead we should beβ€¦πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡
-Using the Summer months as an advantage to get a head start on aiming for #Elimination through #ZeroCovid
-implementing an effective lockdown strategy for the next 6-12 months (which also covers winter).
-Closing the U.K. border for 10 years with strict quarantine in place.
Like I’ve been worrying over, we are doing none of this, instead we are going for a false herd immunity strategy that is dangerous. Herd immunity for Covid19 does not exist. Herd immunity takes centuries.

β€’ β€’ β€’

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More from @zerocovidzoe

9 Jun
Thread discussing the proposals of #Lockdown4, thread will includeπŸ‘‡

-Intro into rising cases, deaths and hospitalisations
-How we failed with the last 3 lockdowns?
-How we can learn from abroad?
-What #Lockdown 4 should look like?
Introduction to data πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡

The situation with #B16172 (Delta)
-Cases since May have been rising
-Have overtook #B117 (Kent) as the dominant strain in the U.K.
We know that #B1672 has significant resistance to both #AstraZeneca and #Pfizer especially with one dose as it’s only 30% effective.
Second dose is around 70% effective (20% drop from other VOC’s…
Read 40 tweets
9 Jun
A little discussion on how effective curfews and permits can be in a lockdown.

Thread πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡
No Curfews/ Permits
-Can leave home for non essential reasons
-Can visit supermarkets freely
-Crowded locations
-More Queues (which create contact)
-More workplaces open

All which leads to higher transmission.
Introducing Curfews and Permits
-Allocated weekly shopping trip (which manages crowds and prevents social contact in essential shops)
-Making it illegal to leave home after 7pm and at weekends (breaks transmission further)β€¦πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡
Read 5 tweets
8 Jun
Tread highlighting
-The situation with #B16172 (Delta)
-21st delay and why the delay is needed
-How we should be locking down going forward (especially over the winter)
The situation with #B16172 (Delta)
-Cases since May have been rising
-Have overtook #B117 (Kent) as the dominant strain in the U.K.
We know that #B1672 has significant resistance to both #AstraZeneca and #Pfizer especially with one dose as it’s only 30% effective.
Second dose is around 70% effective (20% drop from other VOC’s…
Read 52 tweets
7 Jun
A thread explaining how the UK’s lockdown approach has failed and IS continuing to fail.
Thread πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡
A summary of the UK’s lockdown’s
Lockdown 1
-No masks (indoors or outdoors)
-No restrictions on how often you can leave home
-No restrictions on why you can leave home
-Outdoor exercise should not have been allowed
-No curfews
-No permit system
Read 24 tweets

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