Five common logical fallacies

1. False dilemma
2. Circular reasoning
3. Tu quoque
4. Ad hominem
5. Sunk cost

Recognizing them is a competitive advantage. Here's a short guide:
False dilemma:

An argument where only two choices are presented yet more exist.


Would you rather hate your job for the rest of your life or follow your passion?
Circular argument:

Starting from an assumption and using it as a means to justify the conclusion.


Aliens exist, but we haven't found them because their tech is so advanced.
Tu quoque:

Latin for you too. Distraction by pointing out the hypocrisy in the opponent.


Yes, we collect some user data, but so does our competitors.
Ad hominem:

Engaging in personal attacks rather than addressing the argument.


Calling someone names. "An ad hominem attack is highly flattering. It indicates that the person does not have anything intelligent to say about your message." — @nntaleb
Sunk cost:

The general tendency for people to continue an endeavor, because they’ve invested a ton in it.


Sticking with the wrong person or idea just because you've invested a lot of time and emotions. It's true for individuals and businesses alike.
We should have classes dedicated to reasoning and critical thinking in school.

I'd have loved them for one. Still, that's no excuse to not learn these things now.

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More from @sumitgrrg

14 Jun
Robert Iger was the 6th CEO of Disney.

He negotiated with the likes of Steve Jobs to acquire businesses such as:

1. Pixar — $7.4 Billion
2. Marvel — $4 B
3. Lucasfilm — $4.05 B
4. 21st Century Fox — $71.3 B

Here are 9 startup and leadership lessons I've learned from Iger:
Long shots aren’t really that long.

"People sometimes shy away from big swings because they build a case against trying something before they even step up to the plate."

"Boldness has magic in it." — Goethe
Good enough is not good enough.

"Don’t be in the business of playing it safe. Be in the business of creating possibilities for greatness."

Perfection is not accepting mediocrity.
Read 11 tweets
6 Jun
Five valuable mental models

1. Gates' Law
2. Parkinson’s Law
3. The Paradox of Choice
4. Hanlon's Razor
5. Leverage

On startups, business, finance, investing, career, life and whatnot.

Here's a quick guide/refresher:
@BillGates' Law.

We overestimate what we can do in a year and underestimate what we can do in ten years.

It's the classic instant gratification versus long term mindset.

A ten year timeline will set you free.
Parkinson’s Law.

Work expands to fill the time available for its completion.

"How can you achieve your 10 year plan in the next 6 months?" — Peter Thiel

Forgive me for putting it right after Gates' Law. But why not?
Read 7 tweets
27 May
Out of 242 investors, 217 refused to back Howard Schultz on Starbucks.

Startups are f*cking hard.

Today, Starbucks has a $130 billion-plus market cap and literally stands for world-class coffee.

Thread: lessons on business and life:
Customers don't know what they want.

"People didn’t know they needed a safe, comfortable, neighborhood gathering place. They didn’t know they would like Italian espresso drinks."
Fill your own need.

After reaching a peak in 1961, coffee consumption in America had begun to decline, which lasted till late 1980s.

But the founders of Starbucks were not studying market trends.

They were filling a need — their own need — for quality coffee.
Read 28 tweets
2 May
THREAD: Elon Musk wants to make life multiplanetary.

I believe it's one of the most audacious goals in the history of audacious goals.

Here are the five biggest lessons I've learned from him, be it startups or life:
Do or die.

"My mentality is that of a samurai. I would rather commit seppuku than fail.”

Seppuku, or hara-kiri, is when a samurai passes a sword through their belly as an honourable alternative to disgrace.
Do not make the best product in a niche.

Make the best product.

"The Model S by Tesla was not just the best electric car; it was best car, period, and the car people desired."
Read 8 tweets
27 Apr
You can go to business school, spend two more years of your life, spending $100K or so in bills, or you can just listen to Steve Jobs.

I’ve read his biography every year for the last 10 years.

Here's what I learned about startup, marketing, creativity, career, life, and more:
Customers don’t know what they want until you show it to them.

When Jobs unveiled the Macintosh, a reporter asked him what type of market research he had done. Jobs replied: “Did Alexander Graham Bell do any market research before he invented the telephone?”

Think different.
Turkish Coffee? So Fucking What?


When someone in Turkey tried to explain to Jobs how Turkish coffee was made very different from anywhere else, Jobs thought, “So fucking what?”

"Who in Turkey even gave a shit about Turkish coffee?"
Read 15 tweets
11 Apr
I've read all of Jeff Bezos's 23 years of Amazon shareholder letters twice now.

It's an MBA of its own.

Here's what I learned about startups, entrepreneurship, investing and more:
Your customers are loyal to you right up until the second that someone else offers them a better service.
Listen to customers, but don't just listen
to customers also invent on their behalf.
Read 33 tweets

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