Oh my, Rick Astley is back. Coins are moving back to the HODLer who never deserts his BTC.
The previous chart was a 30 day sum of coin movements.
Here's the 7 day view showing greater granularity.
We can see how the mass of coins dumped out to speculative hands are being re-accumulated by strong hands in a pattern similar to the COVID recovery (8 weeks to recover).
Crabs are stacking as hard as their little shells will let them.
Shrimps are taking their lead and stacking like there's no tomorrow, especially in the latest dip.
User growth as strong as ever on the network.
So yeah, it's definitely a bear market folks.
🙄←sarcasm
We should all panic sell because traders tell us there's two moving averages that just crossed and they carry the name "death" in it. Sounds so scary. 😱
This tweet was brought to you with the help of @glassnode on-chain data.
Cryptotwitter tells me this data is a hopium conspiracy; I can neither confirm or deny this fact, but please post me your bear porn.
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How can $MSTR possibly trade at 2.7x their BTC treasury?
I suspect we are seeing the start of $5-10b of inflows in anticipation of a SP500 listing right now.
If true, then it's still warming up.
Consider 20-30% of the SP500's $50T marketcap comes from passive index tracking funds and ETFs.
Inclusion into the SP500 means MSTR gets a chunk of that money.
Inflow estimates:
$10-15b from passive index tracker funds
$5-10b additional from speculative inflows
When would it happen?
FASB accounting practices go live for MSTR on 1st Jan 2025, that's a prerequisite before a listing can take place. After that MSTR will meet most of the requirements, with the last requirement being a committee decision.
Until the start of Aug, we've been in a bearish stance with an influx of 100k coins (Germany, MtGox, DOJ) while speculation has been rife creating more paper BTC.
The price crash during the start of Aug flushed out much of the paper with a nice round of liquidations... open interest got wiped.
That's a healthy reset of open value (paper bets). It's really hard for BTC to climb when there's overheated speculation in the market.
This mid-June assessment is still in play.
BTC price action needs to get really boring.
I feel like we are 66% the way there. Much of the speculation has left, we still need more of the spot BTC to be absorbed.
Here's the 5 macro signals I'm looking closely at right now for #Bitcoin.
3 bullish, 2 bearish...
Miners capitulation is over, it's one of the most reliable bullish indicators.
Hash rate is recovering, the price and hash rate bottom coincided with upgrades to next gen hardware hitting the network.
M66s went live last week.
S21 Pros this week.
Hash rate set to scream.
Miner capitulation is a very responsive indicator. The breakout was preluded with hash rate recovery; price responded within a day. I gave early warning of this.
When it kicks in we normally have months of bullishness.