iang Profile picture
Jun 20, 2021 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
“better placed” isn’t sufficient. ECB is entering a space where they will create a mass surveillance system over the spending of 400mm people.

ECB will need a better narrative than “we’re more trusted than facebook”.
Good news for Greeks and Cypriots perhaps - the CB will not close off access to CBDC in a financial crisis, like banks closed off access to the people’s money in the Greek and Cypriot crises.

ecb.europa.eu/press/inter/da…

Do we believe that?
Apparently, yes, the ECB is going to set itself up in the risk competition as the risk-free money provider.
Apparently, no, as the ECB is going to appoint commercial banks (and others) as service providers. Including of AML/KYC which is open permission to do anything.

The fix is in? No more talk of financial inclusion?
Panetta is on more solid ground calling so-called “stable coins” unstable coins.

But loses it on the common criminality charge: "we know from recent experience that those crypto-assets are largely used for criminal activities” which the data denies.

Then, Monetary Policy:
There it is, folks. Save that tweet! Bc the future might be very different 🙂

Meanwhile, Panetta leans heavily on €3000 cap. Which is high for some, low for others, including various financial inclusion scenarios.

This is the trap - close it too much, risk failure.
Finally, a tantalising comment about cross-border international payments.

Nice in theory, but we know that we cannot transact onside borders without the foreigners getting access to our data. Nice try, but no thanks.

Privacy is #1
additional article:

Digital euro will protect consumer privacy, ECB executive pledges

ft.com/content/e59e5d…

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More from @iang_fc

Jan 23, 2025
Will Trump Side with the Hardliners on Russia?
Sy Hersh

During his campaign, Trump repeatedly vowed to end the Ukraine War even before taking office. It’s easy to mock those statements now, but in my reporting I have been told by someone with firsthand information that intense talks between Ukraine and Russia are ongoing and have moved “close to a settlement.”

Right now one of the main issues involves what I was told is “jockeying for territory.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr “Zelensky has to save face,” a knowledgeable American told me. “He never wants to kneel to the Russians.”
seymourhersh.substack.com/p/will-trump-s…

....The issues boil down to how much territory Russia will retain in the provinces where it continues to make small gains in trench warfare against the undermanned and under-equipped Ukrainian forces. “Putin is the bully In the schoolyard,” the American said, “and we gotta say to the Russians: ‘Let’s talk about what you’re going to get.’” In some places in Ukraine, he said, a negotiating issue comes down to whether a specific smelting plant would be Russian or Ukrainian.

It was his understanding that Trump initially was on board with the negotiations, and his view was that no settlement would work unless Putin was left with “a way to make money” in return for agreeing to end the war. Trump, the American said, “knows nothing about international history,” but he does understand that Putin, whose economy is staggering under heavy sanctions and an inflation rate of 8.5 percent, is in urgent need of finding more markets for his nation’s vast gas and oil reserves.
....Army Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg[...,] Trump’s special envoy for the current peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. Kellogg, publicly contradicting the president-elect, told Fox News that the war would not end with Trump’s arrival in office but could be resolved within one hundred days of his inauguration. “This is a war that needs to end,” Kellogg said, “and I think he can do it in the near term.” (Trump had made another timeline statement for ending the Ukraine war the day before in a chaotic press conference at Mar-a-Lago, but his words were lost amid his claim that he could end the Ukraine War in six months and would not have a summit meeting with Putin until after he took office.)

(See link above for paywalled article. Summary above.)
Read 4 tweets
Jan 18, 2025
I react with wry amusement the economists' propensity to talk about things without definition. The Budish paper "Trust at Scale: the Economics Limits of Cryptocurrencies and Blockchains" spends 62 pages comparing one form of trust with another, with scant regard to what trust is.

It reminds me of the old economists trick of saying that money has a) a unit of account, b) a store of value, and c) a means of exchange. This all seems to be comfortable to the entire world of economics, without anyone realising that what was described was not a definition, it was a checklist of characteristics. It's like saying a bird takes off, flies, lands, without realising that others do this too...
What then is a bird? What is money? What is trust? These questions seem not to trouble people, nor even economists. But woe betide when a new contender arrives, and the knee jerk reaction is to compare the old to the new, and declare one good one bad.

Budish compares 'trust' in blockchains to 'traditional trust' which by introspection turns out to be the legal system of laws, courts, disputes, and all that rigmarole. Is that trust?

Well, it has some characteristics, it can be checklisted. But ask the people if they trust the courts, and the answer is not so positive - in many countries courts are simply not trusted for pretty good reasons.Image
When Budish talks about traditional trust as being related to the legal side of life, he's referring to a very abstract societal concept. When an ordinary person is asked about trust, she's not so abstract. It's an entirely different thing, and comparisons are slippery.

Page 53 does drill down a little into 'models' and compares Nakamoto trust, Repeated interaction, Credible deterrance, Collateral, and others... but ask a mother which of those is what she means when she says "she don't trust da courts, no siree," and it becomes somewhat clear that simple mathematical models aren't going to cut the trust mustard.

How important is this? Well, somewhat. The 1990s Certificate Authority business and countless supporting acts such as the Digital Signature Directive tried to build the Trust Business... and failed. Mainstream media preach trust in journalism and nobody trusts them. The health authorities of the world fluffed the Covid thing and now nobody trusts them. Politicians failed on the energy & CO2 thing, and now there's widespread disrespect as fires, floods reveal the politicians as problems not solutions. Countries ran around and started wars & genocides & regime changes & the like, and they are now not only distrusted but hated.

Yeah, it's somewhat important.

We probably need a new interrogation into this topic. Trust in politicians, trust in neighbours, trust in instititions, in countries... examples abound of how it is not to be found. Until someone can capture and define the term properly, society is in a dark place.

Eric Budish, "Trust at Scale: the Economics Limits of Cryptocurrencies and Blockchains." The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 140, Issue 1, February 2025, Pages 1–62, doi.org/10.1093/qje/qj…
academic.oup.com/qje/article/14…

h/t to x.com/Kiffmeister/st…
Read 6 tweets
Nov 17, 2024
Lots of chatter about the AI that told its user to die...

Now, this is a perfect time to be skeptical. Should we believe it? It's a common game to trick these AI tools into saying stupid things, it's even got a name: prompt engineering, and if you're any good at it, you can get a job doing it.Image


Now, if we wanted to figure that out, how would we? Well, we could ask Google, the erstwhile owner of this alleged genocidal bot. Obviously Goo-do-no-evil-gle will not want the bad press and will cover up. Oh, here it comes... tomshardware.com/tech-industry/…Image


It's not a trivial question! Recall that Google does secret work for the Israeli defence forces, and likes to do that work, so there's a disturbing correlation here, and we hope there isn't a causality.

How to find out?zerohedge.com/technology/you…
Read 8 tweets
Oct 19, 2024
a16z on stablecoins:

Stablecoins.. the realization that stablecoins can fortify the U.S. dollar’s position abroad even as the dollar’s global reserve currency status slips. Today, more than 99% of stablecoins are denominated in USD, which dwarfs the next largest denomination: 0.20% in Euro.

In addition to projecting the power of the American dollar around the world, stablecoins are potentially strengthening the country’s financial footing at home. Despite being only a decade old, stablecoins have risen to become a top 20 holder of U.S. debt, putting them ahead of countries like Germany.Image
a16zcrypto.com/posts/article/…

While some countries are exploring CBDCs, the stablecoin opportunity sitting right in front of the U.S. is ripe for the taking. Between these discussions and the number of prominent political figures now weighing in about crypto generally, we expect more countries will start to flesh out their crypto policies and strategies in earnest.Image
Stablecoins make it easy to transfer value. They amounted to $8.5 trillion in transaction volume across 1.1 billion transactions in the second quarter of 2024 ended June 30. Stablecoin transaction volumes more than doubled Visa’s $3.9 trillion in transactions over the same period. That stablecoins have entered the same conversation as such well-known and entrenched payment services as Visa, PayPal, ACH, and Fedwire is a remarkable testament to their utility.Image
Read 6 tweets
May 3, 2024
@bpreneel1 This is playing out much the same as the Crypto Wars in the 1990s. The concern was never police issues & police privately acknowledged that. The concern was from *intelligence community* which wanted access to all the world's traffic.

The child-abuse meme was convenient...
@bpreneel1 to their cause, as it could not be logically denied - who would be against protecting our children? To push their agenda, they dressed up the chief policeman Louie Freeh, then director of FBI, and fought a long war with the Internet, libertarian and privacy communities.
@bpreneel1 The 1990s Crypto Wars ended when the Internet community was able to convince Clinton that he didn't want to be the one to undermine privacy on his watch. He signed the "open source crypto is free of export controls" executive order on his last day.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 15, 2024
Back in the mid 2010s, there were a bunch of us literally meeting Satoshi. I thought long & hard about what & why. Eventually I came up with Prometheus' goals:

1. preserve the legend
2. protect the people
3. get them back to work

It was the 1st that didn't ring well.
The legend of Satoshi was an amazing thing, a modern day, technophiliac version of Robin Hood, King Arthur, St George. Surely it should be preserved? Grown? Protected?

But even as I was thinking that, we didn't act for that - quite the reverse.
We invented phrases like "we are all Satoshi" from Spartacus, and "Satoshi is dead, long live Satoshi." We joined with the maxis to kill the papparazi outing, we collapsed the tent at the Big Reveal. We hid, we prevaricated, dissembled.

We did our best to deflate the legend.
Read 8 tweets

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