Alina Chan Profile picture
Jun 22, 2021 24 tweets 9 min read Read on X
On Singapore’s recent delta variant covid cluster: “The cluster’s index case, Case 62873, is an 88-year-old cleaner who worked at Changi Airport Terminal 3. He tested positive on May 5 despite being fully vaccinated.”
channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore…
Another delta cluster in Singapore at a hospital: “A fully vaccinated 46-year-old female nurse at TTSH, or case 62541, became the first case linked to the cluster after she tested positive on Apr 27.”
“In the Delta variant clusters, Prof Leo has seen vaccinated cases with family members who have tested positive. This means it could still be possible for vaccinated people to spread the virus.”
“The experts stressed that new variant strains arise when viruses evolve to adapt and evade human defences”

“Disorganised, half-hearted attempts are exactly the prescription for viral mutants.”
Singapore’s tracking of covid cases is incredible. It’s only when you can clearly follow the chains of transmission that you can understand whether a new variant can infect and be spread by vaccinated individuals (only Pfizer and Moderna in Singapore btw).
The good thing is that full vaccination still confers protection against new variants, even if efficacy is slightly reduced. So it’s very important for people in high risk groups to get vaccinated, especially in places where there are low vax rates and new variants circulating.
For example, did any of the fully vaccinated airport workers who still got infected with the Delta end up transmitting it to other people?
In India:
“from his experience, he said patients with “reinfections have not landed in the Intensive Care Unit.”
vice.com/en/article/epn…
Very useful covid tracking app for Singaporean cases
h/t @romeo_ph20
covid.viz.sg
@romeo_ph20 Looking at the Bukit Merah market cluster, you can see (if the data is indeed correct) that some vaccinated people are transmitting covid / SARS2 to other people.

Green = fully vaccinated (pfizer/moderna)
Yellow = 1 dose

The selected (blue) vaccinated person is 23 years old. Image
@romeo_ph20 The selected vaccinated person in this cluster is 39 years old. A chef working at Changi prison. Image
36 year old dealer at Marina Bays Sands Casino Image
18 year old national service man at the Civil Defence Academy Image
The site also tells you who was asymptomatic or symptomatic when they tested positive for covid-19.
For example, in this mini-cluster of 3 fully vaccinated people, the connector person was asymptomatic. Image
The purpose of getting vaccinated is preventing severe disease/death. And when your community has high vaccination rates, the likelihood of clusters is diminished. This protects the elderly/vulnerable who may not be fully protected even after vaccination.
This Covid-tracking app in Singapore is super useful for understanding how transmissible the virus is among vaccinated individuals.
Green = 2 doses
Yellow = 1 dose
The central person is 35 years old. This looks like a workplace cluster. 3 fully vaxed people transmitted to others. Image
I'm not too worried about vax'ed people being infected because ideally the vaccine would've protective effect. But I'm worried about the people who distrust the healthcare system and refuse to get vax'ed. The virus can spread via vax'ed people. covid.viz.sg
Wanted to give a shoutout to our own site @CovidCg covidcg.org you can track the lineages and variants in each country over time.

For example, Singapore, delta / B.1.617.2 is shown in light blue.
covidcg.org/?tab=group&gro… Image
In the USA you can see the % of sequenced SARS-CoV-2 that are the delta / B.1.617.2 / Indian (light blue) have also been growing, displacing the alpha / B.1.1.7 / UK (dark blue) over time. Gamma / P.1 / Brazilian is in green. Image
Not as striking as the UK. Delta has completely overtaken Alpha. Image
Plotting similar data for other countries, but measured in counts (like for Singapore above) as opposed to % (US and UK above).

Australia, Japan, S Korea, S Africa. ImageImageImageImage
Another way to use covidcg.org is to plot the new % of sequences that are delta variant per month in each country of interest.

For example, in Singapore, 94% of the June sequences were the delta variant. UK 92%, Australia 60%, Japan 46%, USA 23% etc. Image
Switching the plot to show the new % of sequences that are the alpha variant per month. Image
The beta variant. Image

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More from @Ayjchan

Apr 22
Those dismissing a lab #OriginOfCovid have had to make numerous concessions over the past 4 years.

We now know Wuhan scientists conducted risky experiments with novel SARS-like viruses at low biosafety & planned in 2018 to create viruses with the traits of the Covid-19 virus.
We also know the data on early cases & Huanan market shared by Chinese scientists do not shed light on #OriginOfCovid

Proponents of natural origin continue to argue that it is the totality of evidence that supports their hypothesis but this could be said for lab origin as well.
The latest defense for a natural #OriginOfCovid is that, if a lab leak had occurred, the Wuhan scientists would have acted all suspicious and essentially given the game away, thereby putting themselves, their colleagues & their families in immediate and deadly peril.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 18
Freedom of speech is important in academia & science but difficult to navigate when it comes to politicized topics.

With #OriginOfCovid, some scientists, journals & reporters have competing interests & may be blamed if research they conducted, funded or glorified caused Covid.
On Tuesday’s hearing, chief editor of Science said the scientific community contributed to politicization of Covid & it was wrong to paint 'lab leak' as a conspiracy theory.

There was widespread consensus, Democrat or Republican, that #OriginOfCovid remains unresolved.
Several representatives asked for forward-facing solutions but none were presented. Today, the media continues to hang onto mistakes & politics of the past.

When confronted, many scientists or journalists who misled their peers & the public on #OriginOfCovid make no apologies.
Read 10 tweets
Apr 11
The @BulletinAtomic Pathogens Project successfully unified experts from opposing ends of #OriginOfCovid, representing diverse disciplines & cultures.

The outcome was a set of practical and high impact recommendations that policymakers are taking note of.
thebulletin.org/2024/04/how-to…
@BulletinAtomic Please see this thread for highlights from the report:
@BulletinAtomic The point of assembling an international task force of experts with truly different view points on #OriginOfCovid and what qualifies as risky research was so that the consensus recommendations would be robust to attacks from angry people on both sides of this issue.
Read 12 tweets
Apr 11
Leaders of scientific funding agencies said Proximal Origin was a nice job. According to the lead author of Proximal Origin, Farrar, Fauci & Collins had advised and led them as they wrote the letter.

So why won't @NatureMedicine put these leaders in the acknowledgements?
Image
The only scientist acknowledged in Proximal Origin arguably contributed much less than these 3 leaders.

He wasn't even at the Feb 1 meeting organized by Farrar where #OriginOfCovid was hotly debated and Proximal Origin was initiated.
Beyond what @Bryce_Nickels pointed out in his letter to @NatureMedicine & International Committee of Medical Journal Editors, the Proximal Origin authors failed to point out that their funder(s) had been involved in the work.
nature.com/nature-portfol…

Image
Image
Read 7 tweets
Mar 19
Serious question:
Is it acceptable for scientists to publish assertions that they know are not well supported by the available evidence?
The first author told Nature they really, really wish they could refute a lab origin but it's just not possible given the data. They were rejected.

They then went to Nature Medicine, telling the editor they would make clear that #OriginOfCovid is natural.
After Proximal Origin is published, the first author continues to worry about lab #OriginOfCovid - citing "definitely concerning work" at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Image
Read 7 tweets
Mar 18
What I think would be accurate reporting

2020: Some 🧑‍🔬 dismissed lab #OriginOfCovid as implausible/conspiracy theory. Journalists captured. Issue polarized. Mudslinging from both sides.

2021-: FOIA/subpoenas show 🧑‍🔬 went too far, misled journalists. Lab origin plausible/likely.
2024: Some 🧑‍🔬, including those who misled journalists on #OriginOfCovid and engaged in their own repeated harassment of scientists asking for fair investigation, complain to employers about harassment by scientists on side of lab leak.
Even scientists who acted completely professionally and civilly have been silenced on lab #OriginOfCovid and advocating for better biosafety to protect millions or billions of lives from lab-based pandemics.
Read 5 tweets

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