Alina Chan Profile picture
Jun 22, 2021 24 tweets 9 min read Read on X
On Singapore’s recent delta variant covid cluster: “The cluster’s index case, Case 62873, is an 88-year-old cleaner who worked at Changi Airport Terminal 3. He tested positive on May 5 despite being fully vaccinated.”
channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore…
Another delta cluster in Singapore at a hospital: “A fully vaccinated 46-year-old female nurse at TTSH, or case 62541, became the first case linked to the cluster after she tested positive on Apr 27.”
“In the Delta variant clusters, Prof Leo has seen vaccinated cases with family members who have tested positive. This means it could still be possible for vaccinated people to spread the virus.”
“The experts stressed that new variant strains arise when viruses evolve to adapt and evade human defences”

“Disorganised, half-hearted attempts are exactly the prescription for viral mutants.”
Singapore’s tracking of covid cases is incredible. It’s only when you can clearly follow the chains of transmission that you can understand whether a new variant can infect and be spread by vaccinated individuals (only Pfizer and Moderna in Singapore btw).
The good thing is that full vaccination still confers protection against new variants, even if efficacy is slightly reduced. So it’s very important for people in high risk groups to get vaccinated, especially in places where there are low vax rates and new variants circulating.
For example, did any of the fully vaccinated airport workers who still got infected with the Delta end up transmitting it to other people?
In India:
“from his experience, he said patients with “reinfections have not landed in the Intensive Care Unit.”
vice.com/en/article/epn…
Very useful covid tracking app for Singaporean cases
h/t @romeo_ph20
covid.viz.sg
@romeo_ph20 Looking at the Bukit Merah market cluster, you can see (if the data is indeed correct) that some vaccinated people are transmitting covid / SARS2 to other people.

Green = fully vaccinated (pfizer/moderna)
Yellow = 1 dose

The selected (blue) vaccinated person is 23 years old. Image
@romeo_ph20 The selected vaccinated person in this cluster is 39 years old. A chef working at Changi prison. Image
36 year old dealer at Marina Bays Sands Casino Image
18 year old national service man at the Civil Defence Academy Image
The site also tells you who was asymptomatic or symptomatic when they tested positive for covid-19.
For example, in this mini-cluster of 3 fully vaccinated people, the connector person was asymptomatic. Image
The purpose of getting vaccinated is preventing severe disease/death. And when your community has high vaccination rates, the likelihood of clusters is diminished. This protects the elderly/vulnerable who may not be fully protected even after vaccination.
This Covid-tracking app in Singapore is super useful for understanding how transmissible the virus is among vaccinated individuals.
Green = 2 doses
Yellow = 1 dose
The central person is 35 years old. This looks like a workplace cluster. 3 fully vaxed people transmitted to others. Image
I'm not too worried about vax'ed people being infected because ideally the vaccine would've protective effect. But I'm worried about the people who distrust the healthcare system and refuse to get vax'ed. The virus can spread via vax'ed people. covid.viz.sg
Wanted to give a shoutout to our own site @CovidCg covidcg.org you can track the lineages and variants in each country over time.

For example, Singapore, delta / B.1.617.2 is shown in light blue.
covidcg.org/?tab=group&gro… Image
In the USA you can see the % of sequenced SARS-CoV-2 that are the delta / B.1.617.2 / Indian (light blue) have also been growing, displacing the alpha / B.1.1.7 / UK (dark blue) over time. Gamma / P.1 / Brazilian is in green. Image
Not as striking as the UK. Delta has completely overtaken Alpha. Image
Plotting similar data for other countries, but measured in counts (like for Singapore above) as opposed to % (US and UK above).

Australia, Japan, S Korea, S Africa. ImageImageImageImage
Another way to use covidcg.org is to plot the new % of sequences that are delta variant per month in each country of interest.

For example, in Singapore, 94% of the June sequences were the delta variant. UK 92%, Australia 60%, Japan 46%, USA 23% etc. Image
Switching the plot to show the new % of sequences that are the alpha variant per month. Image
The beta variant. Image

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More from @Ayjchan

Sep 15
Accidentally swore and got bleeped on my live interview with On Point @MeghnaWBUR while discussing why lab #OriginOfCovid must be investigated and why scientists must not lie or obfuscate the truth for political reasons.
wbur.org/onpoint/2024/0…
@MeghnaWBUR Meghna did an excellent job putting the arguments of natural #OriginOfCovid proponents to me so I could refute them directly in the interview.

The scientific evidence does not support a double spillover of the virus at the Wuhan market.
@MeghnaWBUR Those who condemn platforming the lab #OriginOfCovid hypothesis refuse to participate in a joint interview with me.

They say it's because they do not want to legitimize a lab origin but I believe it's because their arguments cannot withstand informed scrutiny.
Read 6 tweets
Jun 19
I respect Dr Fauci's decades of service in gov. Being in charge during a pandemic is no small challenge & no one can lead for so long without making mistakes. However, it needs to be said that Dr Fauci has not surrounded himself with wise & honest people regarding #OriginOfCovid
These are the virologists & experts he trusted on #OriginOfCovid

In their private messages in early 2020, they mocked other virologists for not being able to predict their own lab leaks & misled a @nytimes journalist asking about a potential lab origin.
These experts published an influential letter 'The Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2' that was used widely to shut down questions about a lab leak.

In private, they wrote that evidence against a lab leak was not strong and speculated on genetic engineering.
wsj.com/articles/the-c…
Read 10 tweets
Jun 19
Dr Bob Garry admitted we don't know what viruses were studied in Wuhan labs. The papers he cited in support of natural #OriginOfCovid have been thoroughly refuted (see below).

My response to Garry's testimony was submitted into record. Key points ⬇️
hsgac.senate.gov/hearings/origi…
A research-related #OriginOfCovid is plausible and even considered more likely by some experts and US intelligence agencies.
goodjudgment.com/wp-content/upl…
Available data on early cases & market samples do not distinguish between a superspreader event versus spillover.

Even Dr Ralph Baric who collaborated with Wuhan scientists said the “market was a conduit for expansion of the disease. Is that where it started? I don’t think so.”
Image
Image
Read 12 tweets
May 2
Ralph Baric's interview with @covidselect reveals he was on the Feb 1, 2020 phone call with Farrar, Fauci, Collins and the Proximal Origin authors.

Did he reveal his plans from 2018 with the Wuhan Institute of Virology to put furin cleavage sites into SARS-like viruses?

oversight.house.gov/wp-content/upl…Image
@COVIDSelect Baric said he forgot about the Defuse proposal & did not mention it at the Feb 1 call.

I believe Baric sharing Defuse would've prevented the publication of Proximal Origin and the use of it to dismiss a lab #OriginOfCovid in US gov and to the public. Image
@COVIDSelect Baric also could've told them at the Feb 1 meeting that novel SARS-like viruses were being used in infection experiments at BSL2 at the Wuhan Institute of Virology aka the Wild West according to Jeremy Farrar.
Read 10 tweets
May 1
Peter Daszak, EcoHealth Alliance testified he didn't know Wuhan Institute of Virology bred 🦇, studied pangolin samples, engineered viruses without leaving a trace, and continued to collect viruses after 2015.

So how does he know they didn't cause Covid?
Daszak said he didn't know if WIV had started experiments described in the Defuse proposal and 🚨had not even asked them🚨.

He only had virus sequences from samples collected up to 2015. He believed that the WIV would've shared more sequences from 2016-2019 if they had them.
Reminder: EcoHealth Alliance still has not shared the sequences for the WIV's 220 SARS-CoV-1-like viruses (2022 interview) or 180 unique SARS-like viruses in their prior work not yet characterized for spillover potential (2018 proposal).
Read 5 tweets
Apr 22
Those dismissing a lab #OriginOfCovid have had to make numerous concessions over the past 4 years.

We now know Wuhan scientists conducted risky experiments with novel SARS-like viruses at low biosafety & planned in 2018 to create viruses with the traits of the Covid-19 virus.
We also know the data on early cases & Huanan market shared by Chinese scientists do not shed light on #OriginOfCovid

Proponents of natural origin continue to argue that it is the totality of evidence that supports their hypothesis but this could be said for lab origin as well.
The latest defense for a natural #OriginOfCovid is that, if a lab leak had occurred, the Wuhan scientists would have acted all suspicious and essentially given the game away, thereby putting themselves, their colleagues & their families in immediate and deadly peril.
Read 8 tweets

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