Thread by @gnomeicide

I was hoping to get away without posting a Covid stats update today. Well that isn't going to happen. Here's the overall picture (1)

I mean what can you say, as predicted deaths are now rising faster, such is the nature of exponential growth. And, likewise cases. Although todays cases are off the chart, way up (2)

13.86 deaths per day on average over the last 7 days. Up from a low of 5.71 on the 24th of May (3)

Or, if you prefer, 97 over 7 days, which is the highest since the 3rd of May (4)

And yes, I know, the last 3 points do kind of point to a new, faster rise - but its really too soon to say that as yet. But we can say deaths are rising at 6% per day on average over 7 days, and thats colossal (5)

The parallel with the end of the recovery from wave1 and the start of wave 2 is stark. Deaths started rising a little earlier this time, but the faster kick up happened 1 day earlier this time (6)

For the last couple of weeks there was some vague hope that the rise in deaths in the third wave of infection might be trivial. That is no longer a possibility. This is a significant rise in fatalities (7)

Cases are rising COLOSSALLY faster than at the start of the second wave. (8)

But the trend is similar. (9)

Deaths are in a similar scale - vaccines have probably helped here. A lot. But the rate cases are growing means deaths are rising fast, and there's another 23 days of deaths rising locked in even if we see further restrictions imposed. (10)

Infections are now doubling every 7.3 days. (11)

Interestingly R as calculated from infections is ahead (at the same point) of R from deaths - that may indicated deaths are going to continue to rise more slowly than infections have, but thats a bold assertion while deaths are still -relatively- low (12)

There is, bluntly, too much statistical noise to make that claim yet. (13)

Deaths are, after the last two days figures being ghastly, doubling every 6.4 days (using 7 day rolling average and the old school rule of 72 calculation) (14)

I want something positive to say here but I've got nothing. Last time average daily cases was higher wat the 19th of February (15)

Its now only a question of how bad this can get. For every deaty there are many hospitalisations, many cases of long-covid, and many more serious illnesses. This is not a sustainable rise. We are in trouble (fin).