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Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
@jam_croissant
Jun 25, 2021 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
1/x Not much to see here. Another summer day, another day of dispersion. #SummerofGeorge. 👇The market is dramatically oversupplied gamma in today’s expiration. So despite all the blinking orange ⚠️ lights, it should continue to be placid into 7/12… we finally broke above the https://t.co/7HmyoUZein
2/x 1.5 std dev of the 20 day yesterday on close, which is a sign of strengthening momentum. If we can maintain the 20 day, during this period, it is always dangerous to ‘short a dull market’ due to the eventual vanna/charm effects as we head into the long weekend next week.
3/3 calendar spreads are a good play at these Vol levels. Selling 7/2 to buy post 7/12. Feel free to disperse about the cabin. Always hold tails in this environment. Everything from Wednesday still applies. Be 💦. Good luck! 🍀

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More from @jam_croissant

Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
Dec 25, 2024
Oh, the bubble 🫧 in equities is frightful
But the eventual burst 💥 will be delightful!
But since investors don’t know where else to go,
LET IT BLOW! LET IT BLOW! LET IT BLOW!
It doesn't show signs of stopping 🛑 ,
So, on these vols, calls are likely in for a popping,
With the call Vols turned down low,
LET THEM BLOW! LET THEM BLOW! LET THEM BLOW!
With Elon tweeting all night 💤
How the shorts will get squeezed in the storm ⛈️ ,
But, like Tesla, if you really hold on tight,
Oh the returns you’ll see at the end will be warm!
Read 6 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
Dec 25, 2023
LAST CHRISTMAS I called for a crash,
But the very next day…vol supply took it away.
This year…I’ll save you the tears,
I'll give you something special…
Once bitten & twice shy,
I keep my distance, but the crash, based on macro, still catches my eye…

Tell me baby, do you recognize the thing supporting SPU’s?
Well, it's been a year of limitless structured product flows…It shouldn’t surprise you.
Happy Christmas, the banks structured it & sold it.
With a note saying "It’s better than the market!" & They meant it.

Now, I know, it seems what a fool shorts have been…
But if you unpinned Volatility on a blowoff top, I know the macro landscape would tempt me again…
Last Christmas, populism, war & fiscal had me call for a crash,
But the very next day, vol supply took it away…
This year, hasn’t muted those fears,
& may still give us something special.
Read 7 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
Dec 25, 2022
TRADING VOL IN THE COMING WINTER WONDERLAND

Storm sirens🚨 ring, R U listening?
In the gutter, cheap equity skew is a-glistening!

A beautiful sight.
We're lucky🍀 tonight.
Trading vol in a coming winter wonderland.

Gone away is the call squeeze…
Next up comes the put squeeze!
To sing a calm song
While most PM’s puke🤮their longs
Trading vol in a coming winter wonderland!

In the crash, we can build a long,man!
We'll pretend that we r J.P.Getty
We'll say ‘R U offered?’
They'll say ‘Yeah man!’
But we’ll separate the baby from the bath when SPU’s R down!
Later on, we'll conspire,
As we count our 💰, amidst the fire 🔥 ,
To face new longs, unafraid,
With the sound portfolio that we've made,
Trading vol in the coming winter wonderland…

In the crash, we can build a long, man!
We'll pretend that we are J.Paul Getty.
Read 5 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
Oct 22, 2022
1/X If U R 👀 TODAYS’ PUBLIC REMOVAL OF FORMER 🇨🇳 PRES. HU JINTAO IN DISBELIEF👇 A brief🔬 into the childhood & upbringing of Xi Jinping by @NewYorker: “(Xi Jinping’s) father, Xi Zhongxun,🇨🇳’s propaganda minister @ the time, had been fomenting revolution since the age of 14, when
2/X he & classmates tried to poison a teacher whom they considered a counterrevolutionary.He was sent to jail, where he joined the Communist Party. Eventually he became a high-ranking commander, which plunged him into the Party’s internal feuds. In 1935, a rival faction accused
3/X Xi’s father of disloyalty & ordered him to be buried alive, but Mao defused the crisis…When Xi Jinping was 5, his father was promoted to Vice-Premier, & his son often visited him @ Zhongnanhai, the secluded compound for top leaders.Xi was admitted to the exclusive August 1st
Read 9 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
Oct 17, 2022
1/x In a 🌎 of secular inflation, the proper response to 📈 in demand is to 📈 supply. U currently👂a lot of talk about this, as it relates to commodities. But what about labor costs?? As protectionism grows, we are increasingly turning away the exact supply we need most of all.
2/x“Unfortunately, the H-1B process is falling increasingly out of date & badly failing to serve its original purpose of turning on the talent tap for top innovative companies. Congress sets an annual cap on how many H-1B visa holders can come in, & that cap is now far below what
3/x the labor market demands. The crush of applications once the 🪟 opens for a given year on March 1 is so intense that, in every year since 2014, USCIS has (had to) resorted to a lottery system. That means that year in & year out, 100,000’s of high-skilled workers from abroad
Read 9 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
Sep 24, 2022
End of an era.’Roger v. Rafa, just 1 name apiece required, belongs up there w/McEnroe v. Borg, Evert v. Navratilova, Sampras v. Agassi, Ali v. Frazier, Magic v. Bird, Brady v. Manning.
Federer & Nadal showed off individual greatness & compelling contrasts across their 40 matches,
14 @ Grand Slams: righty v. lefty, attacker v. grinder, seeming effortlessness v. relentless intensity.
& yet, there was an unmistakable element of poetry w/these 2 men who challenged each other & elevated eachother performing as partners, slapping palms & sharing smiles.’
“It’s been a perfect journey,” Federer said.“I‘d do it all over again.” When the match & w/it, his time in tennis ended, Federer hugged Nadal, & then began crying. Nadal wiped tears away, too.
“When Roger leaves the tour, an important part of my life is leaving, too,” said Nadal.
Read 4 tweets

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