Who speaks 1st on behalf of the PMF/Iraqi resistance casualties after US airstrike(s)?
The Iraqi Resistance Coordination Commission was probably the 1st to condemn US airstrikes, promising revenge (5:19 AM Baghdad). Aim: reflect an early semblance of Iraqi paramilitary unity.
The IRCC recently established a Telegram channel (Sabereen News shared it) and created a logo: a 16 vector-Islamic design may have been chosen to signal the multiplicity of actors involved. The channel and logo come many months after the IRCC 1st appeared in Oct. 2020.
The PMF 14th Brigade Commander's comments on the event were circulated around half an hour after that of the IRCC (5:51 AM - Fariq al-Wilaya). Ahmed al-Magsosi expressed readiness to respond and take revenge, waiting for the orders of the "general command."
The PMF's Jazeera Operations Command statement was circulated after, commenting on the event (~12:02 PM Baghdad - Tura News). What is particularly significant is how the four PMF fighters (14th Bridge) were described as affiliated w/ Haidaryon forces.
The PMF's Media Directorate's lengthy statement on the event was circulated on Telegram after the PMF Jazeera Cmd. (12:52 PM - PMF Media Directorate on Telegram). The PMF says it has the legal right to respond to the aggressions and punish the culprits on Iraqi territory.
The Secretary-General of Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, which the 14th Brigade is linked with, made a long statement (2:05 PM circulated by Sabereen News). Among many other points, and promising revenge, Abu Ala endorses the IRCC as the vanguard bearing Soleimani's heritage.
The main takeaways here:
• The IRCC, representing core resistance forces, is still emerging as a power center that speaks for itself and the PMF.
• Although the Joe Biden admin. represents less of a threat to paramilitary groups compared to Trump, the IRCC's utility as a protective and homogenizing blanket has not declined.
• Why does the IRCC speak before the PMF when the latter is the most concerned institutionally? There two probabilities but maybe more: 1) there is an internal rivalry, 2) the PMF and who drives it prefers to outsource to the less constrained IRCC the making of swift threats.
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'The interior minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) secretly visited Iran this week and signed several security agreements with Tehran officials, a source close to Iraq's ruling elites told The New Arab.' english.alaraby.co.uk/news/iraqi-kur…
'Rebar Ahmed, the candidate of the ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) for Iraq's presidency, spoke with Iranian officials on key security and border issues affecting Tehran, including the presence of a US airbase near Erbil, Iraqi-Kurdistan.'
'The KRG and Iran also agreed that Harir Airbase, a military base near Erbil hosting the US and the coalition forces that was targeted in recent months, will be overseen by the Iraqi federal government and the airbase will only be used for duties that Baghdad demands...'
Please read my latest for @SadaJournal: I argue that a major armed clash between the Sadrist movement and Iran-allied paramilitary groups risks further aggravating tribal violence in southern Iraq and vice versa. carnegieendowment.org/sada/87147
Data compiled from @ACLEDINFO shows that Iraq's three southern governorates Basra, Thi Qar, and Maysan are seeing historical high levels of incidents of tribal violence, particularly in Maysan where they have been skyrocketing.
Elections appeared to temper tribal violence in the south in the run up to polls, but that wasn't the case of Maysan. ACLED's recorded incidents show that Maysan's incidents even eclipsed Basra.
Two things to look at: 1) UAE's engagement w Israel has a cost in Iran, and for Iran to make itself relevant in the run-up to the 5th talks w Saudi in Iraq, such a strike could be useful. 2) Frustration felt by resistance groups in Iraq from politics need to be channeled somehow.
But what if political frustration was replaced by content thanks to electoral gain? That would have put the resistance on a path of greater access 2 resources (let's see the upcoming gov.) and empowerment. So what's the difference? There are differences. This is food for thought.
Strikes against UAE come when Turkish posts in Ninewa are also under increased resistance fire. Those have been increasing for a while. But Attacks on both find reasons in Iraq (pol. frustration): Taqadum+Azm rise is attributed to the Turkish-Emirati rapprochement.
Abu Ali al-Askari, security spox of KH makes a statement:
1) Congratulates the Yemeni Ansar/Houthis for targeting the UAE & KSA and attributes "victories" to the resistance axis as a whole. Asks resistance to be on stand by in case adversaries capitulate.
2) Accuses those who "rigged elections" of targeting BGD's airport. Askari calls upon those who are faithful in the ISF as well as PMF security directorate to investigate.
3) He points out to increasingly frequent attacks that target the ISF and the PMF in Anbar and accuses gov. actors of conducting them.
Two key winners from Iraq's elections are Muqtada Sadr & Akram Kabi. Two Sadrists leading v. different paramilitaries. There could be short-term fragile convergence btw. them, yet their parallel rise brings risks, I argue in my latest for @MiddleEastEye middleeasteye.net/opinion/iraq-e…
Sadr & Kabi took radically different decisions towards elections. Sadr v. heavily invested in it and Kabi kept his group's hands-off policy. Kabi's group, Nujaba, was careful in media over how it sided w/ its allies in the elections dispute. @MiddleEastEye middleeasteye.net/opinion/iraq-e…
Once Sadr won the elections he felt more empowered to repeat his paramilitary disarmament call & even cut ties with PMF's Muhammadawi. At the same time, AAH and KH were really invested in mobilizing their partisans in their elections cause. @MiddleEastEye middleeasteye.net/opinion/iraq-e…
Awaiting more confirmation, the rumor seems to be partially correct; President Salih, the PM, and the Shia Coordination Framework leaders met (at least this means AAH's Khazali was present).
Sabereen News responds to me saying that "no faction attended any SCF meeting" (implying that KH SG Hamidawi was not present in a meeting with #Kadhimi).