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Micah Zenko Profile picture
@MicahZenko
Jun 30, 2021 • 1 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Fun Fact. Rumsfeld got the famed "Unknown Knowns" saying from a USAF 0-6 during a JFCOM visit. (He actually had her repeat it slowly, so he could write it down, but he never gave her credit.)

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More from @MicahZenko

Micah Zenko Profile picture
Nov 27, 2021
New CIA official history of Obama-Trump transition; many revelations based on interviews. bit.ly/3FXp8zX
Remarkably, Trump wasn't briefed on CIA covert activities before entering office, "nor in the first several weeks of his administration." (p. 244) Immense negligence
"After the 2020 election, PDB briefings also continued ...When Sanner briefed the president before he went to Mar-a-Lago, he commented that he would see her later. The briefings were to resume on 6 January but none were scheduled after the attack on the Capitol." (266-267)
Read 5 tweets
Micah Zenko Profile picture
Apr 23, 2020
Tomorrow is 40th anniversary of Operation Eagle Claw, the military mission to 118 US troops attempted to enter Iran to rescue 52 American citizens held hostage in Tehran. It failed
It was the riskiest, publicly-known, operation in modern US history. The commander, Col. Beckwith thought "the probability of success is zero," and Pentagon estimated 15 hostages and 30 troops would be killed if the operation succeeded.
Mark Bowden's history of how poor planning and inter-service rivalries doomed the operation is excellent: theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…
Read 6 tweets
Micah Zenko Profile picture
Sep 21, 2019
This NYT passage is factually bizarre. nyti.ms/2kWZkQy
Here's USAF stats for airstrikes in Afghanistan. Note the massive growth under Trump. bit.ly/2mmoUi7
Here's LWJ stats for strikes in Somalia. Note the massive growth under Trump. bit.ly/2ktw7fT
Read 7 tweets
Micah Zenko Profile picture
Sep 18, 2019
Reasons for attacking Iran that I've read:
-signal that protecting energy sources is a priority
-defend a close regional partner
-simply punish Iran
-diminish IRGC capabilities
-establish deterrence/credibility with Iran
-establish credibility with others
As people discuss why and how to attack Iran, ask yourself if that proposed use of force will achieve these objectives.
Over past 30+ years, US limited uses of force have overwhelmingly failed to achieve any of these objectives...I don't see how limited force (or cyber coercion, or more sanctions) achieves hem vis-a-vis Iran.
Read 5 tweets
Micah Zenko Profile picture
Mar 9, 2019
When a NYT columnist believes the United States is "a country at peace," the fundamental concept of warfare has been rendered meaningless.
This is the sad culmination of a WH defining down the concept of war, the Pentagon's steady erosion of transparency and accountability, and civilian officials hiding policy decisions behind the sacrifices of servicemembers.
I'd add, several Pentagon officials believe anything short of great power war is not war.

-Gen. Darren McDew, Trans Com chief: “We don’t own every domain anymore. Seventy years of going without a fight has put us in a different place as a nation.”bit.ly/2HqaWEl
Read 7 tweets
Micah Zenko Profile picture
Mar 6, 2018
Consider re potential Korea denuclearization talks: failed diplomatic initiatives are often a precursor/instigator to war. The frustraed aggressor claims "we tried!" and then escalates to an outbreak of militarized conflict.
Worry is if Trump were 40-60 against a preventive attacks today, a highly-publicized failure in talks might push him to 51 in favor, and lead him to authorize attacks. (Even w/out a quantitative change in NK nuclear or ICBM capabilities.)
Again when publicly-touted talks with NK fail,, Trump may move faster to OK preventive force, and be willing to upset ally in SK, b/c they will have "failed" as the talks' sponsor.
Read 4 tweets

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