0/ $BTC "closed" June (6%) its third consecutive lower month for the first time since 6 straight months from August '18-Jan '19.

It finished 2Q down (40.4%), the worst on record & only the 2nd ever negative 2Q (which historically had been the best Q of the year).
1/ $BTC realized cap (or theoretical cost basis) closed the month at $19.4K or down (1.7%) the first negative month since March of '20 and only the 6th negative month since Jan of '19.
2/ $BTC spot price vs. realized cap closed at an ~80.6% premium which is in the top ~40% all time.

Looking it as a ratio of market value / realized cap were <2.0x for the first time since Sept
3/ As it pertains to concerns over miner selling since hash rate peaked in mid-April there is ~57,000 less $BTC held in 0 hop miner wallets which is ~$2.5B or ~$32.8M/day.

Looking at the % of all $BTC held by those wallets (or those 1 hop away) its roughly in-line w/ YTD avg
4/ $ETH finished June down (15.8%) its worst month since last September.

$ETH realized cap was lower by (6.8%) for the first negative month since last Sept.
5/ Looking at $ETH realized cap vs. market cap over time it closed June at a ~58% premium which is the top ~40% all time.
6/ What's interesting from this data is the market on average is seemingly much worse at buying $ETH than it is $BTC

BTC has historically traded at avg / median premium of ~79% / 65.3% to the theoretical cost basis w/ ~15% of days "underwater" while ETH is 45.3% / 35.1% & 31.3%
7/ We've seen meaningful $ETH outperformance of $BTC YTD, just like we've seen meaningful alt coin outperformance of $ETH YTD (e.g., $ETC is +858% YTD).

This was the first month $BTC outperformed $ETH since Feb after 3 straight mo's of underperformance
8/ 2H will be driven by a # of narratives we know & many more we don't yet including China, other global regulatory headlines (Europe / US), Fed & QT, coupled w/ additional inst'l on-ramps, alt coins, DeFi, corporates, sovereigns, etc...

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More from @JohnStCapital

1 Jul
0/ @RobinhoodApp filed their S1 now that the FINRA settlement is behind them...They have 18.0M cumulative funded accounts, 17.7M MAUs, & $81B in AuC.

They did $522M in 1Q21 revenue vs. $127.6M in 1Q20 and did $958.8M in revenue in '20 reporting $7.5M in net income.
1/ User growth has been astronomical over the past 2 years.

They finished 2019 at 5.1M accounts & added 5.5M funded accounts in 1Q21 alone.

This account growth has also corresponded with an increase in revenue / funded account almost doubling during that period
2/ How did COVID-19 impact trading? Look at the DAU / MAU ratio from 2018-2019 to 2Q20-today.
Read 11 tweets
30 Jun
0/ @RobinhoodApp received a record $70M in penalties for "supervisory failures" & the suit provided us insights on their growth:

31M accounts (18M funded as of 1Q21) median age of 31 / acct size $240 (avg acct was $5,000)

In Feb during Vlad's testimony they cited 13M customers
1/ During 1Q they generated ~$330M in PFOF of which options were ~$197M (60%), Non-S&P 500 stocks were $126M (38.1%) & S&P 500 stocks were $7.1M (2.2%).

This compares to $90.9M in 1Q20 & $221M in 4Q20.

Given growth in $NSTB (@apexclearing) they probably did comparable in 2Q
2/ What was Robinhood charged with? " Systemic Supervisory Failures and Significant Harm Suffered by Millions of Customers"
Read 9 tweets
30 Jun
0/ JPM published a report looking at private equity ("PE") vs. public equity performance. PE is still o/p public equity, but outperformance narrowed due to fiscal / monetary stimulus, & PE acquisition multiples rising. They use a public market equivalent (PME) measure as a
1/ multiple of invested capital; PME >1.0 = PE outperformance

Re: VC there has been outperformance vs. PME. Since 2010 the gap between top & bottom quartile VC managers has narrowed & bottom quartile VC manager underperformance vs public equity is very modest (bottom left)
2/ Perhaps not surprisingly private credit has the most narrow distribution of returns, while VC has the largest distribution of returns but the highest median return (while private credit is the lowest)
Read 7 tweets
28 Jun
0/ The mkt is showing an appetite for cross-border / EM eCommerce & payments co's. The overall XB B2C eCommerce market is est to increase to $736B in '23 growing is 2x the rate of domestic growth.

Two recent IPO's w/ diff exposure to the theme $GLBE & $DLO are +142% / 138%
1/ Re: $DLO they are exposed to electronification of payments / eCommerce w/ XB eCommerce making up 2/3 of its volume.

They offer 600+ payment methods as well as an FX settlement & management solution, tax collection services, & regulatory compliance, fraud prevention, etc.
2/ $DLO has 338 merchants in 9 fast-growing verticals: retail, streaming, ride hailing, financial institutions, advertising, SaaS, travel, e-learning, & gaming. Customers include $AMZN $NFLX $GOOGL $MSFT $SPOT $FB $NKE $V $UBER w/ a best in-class success rate.
Read 7 tweets
22 Jun
0/ Has been a tough ~2.5 months for $BTC & $ETH. $BTC trailing 1-60D performance is mostly in the bottom 10% all-time. Down 38.8% over the last 60D is the worst performance (clustered the past 2 weeks) since last March & prior to that Dec '18 / Jan '19 when it broke the $6K level
1/ While $ETH typically trades w/ a higher beta to $BTC it also tends to lag it by a bit as there is often rotation from $BTC to $ETH & then alts more broadly. While the trailing 1-20D performance is bottom ~10% the trailing 30-60D performance in the bottom ~20%.
2/ The theoretical cost basis of $BTC is now $19,696 vs. a "close" of $31,677 or a ~60.8% difference the lowest levels since July / June of last year.
Read 12 tweets
21 Jun
0/ CS published 25 FinTech trends to watch across four broad categories (i) Payments (ii) Bank Technology & Infrastructure (iii) Distribution of Financial Services & (iv) General Industry Themes.
1/ On payments they discuss faster payments, omnichannel, full stack vs. functional specialist, future of the APM/LPMs, A2A payments (via Open Banking), BNPL, crypto / stablecoins / CBDCs, and open digital public infrastructure.
2/ The functional specialist vs. full stack debate is particularly interesting. Thus far we've seen large enterprise level merchants opt for the specialist approach (increased conversion, lower chargebacks) while SMB's have favored the full-stack one.
Read 23 tweets

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