As someone who has written for decades about corporate crime, I was reading the Trump O/Weisselberg indictment going, "Yah, ok..hmm..yah..ok..Wait..HOLY SHIT!" The Trump Org is in deep, deep trouble. And not because of the criminal charges. Because of its bank loan covenants.../1
...in fact, if even the smallest bit of this case is true, I think the Trump Org could be dead. It's complicated, but it primarily pertains to the 12th count of the indictment.

Taking this a step at a time: Like most real estate companies, the Trump Org is horribly illiquid...2
...this means it cannot readily convert its assets into cash as needed. Worse, because of the incredible incompetence and business idiocy of Trump, cash on hand (and access rapid loans through what is known as the commercial paper market) is small. So, the company survives.../3
...on loans against assets. Trump originally depended on bank loans, then jumped into high-yield (junk) bond market, which is why so many of his businesses went bankrupt: Junk bonds gave him lots of cash to spend, but he was too stupid to apply an analysis beyond "I'm great".../4
...to figure out how he was going to generate enough cash to pay interest on bonds. He couldn't. With his dad, he tried laundering money through Trump Castle to get past a requirement with his bank loans brought on by his junk debt, but got caught. Everything crashed down.../5
...so, the bottom line: Trump knows how to borrow money, he doesn't know how to manage it. Then came The Apprentice, which gave him lots of cash. Of course, he spent it all, then used assets he purchased as security to borrow from banks on apparent assumption that "I'm great"...6
...would fix any cash flow problems. He now has huge amounts of debt against assets that are plummeting in value because of January 6 and his toxic brand name. He *needed* the presidency to survive financially. I have always believed, that is why he is so desperate to keep it...7
....because if he was president, he could hit up the Russians, Saudis, etc to bail him out. Now, with him toxic and a threat to the country, those nations know that any secret payments they make to him run a huge risk of being discovered.

Which brings us to today's charges...8
...all bank loans with a business come with "lending covenants." These are basically a series of requirements, some of which include "you'll behave" in minor character. But *the most important part* of any loan covenant is the "books and records" portion. It is included in.../9
...every covenant for a bank loan to a business. The terms are simple: You maintain truthful books and records, you attest to us that they are truthful, and we are allowed to review them at any time. There is no "You can lie *just a little bit* on your books and records".../10
...it's all or nothing, like pregnancy: You either are or you arent. The books and records either are truthful or they aren't. Which brings us to count 12, which I think you can now understand the significance of: Image
...Forget Weisselberg. That is every every corporate defendant, every entity that could have a loan covenant in its name. Every Trump Org bank lender in the world, right now, is looking at this indictment, looking at their covenants, and calling the Trump Org demanding.../12
...they turn over every relevant book and record pertaining to these issues. If they refuse...BOOM. Loans pulled. If they do and the banks don't like what they see...BOOM. Loans pulled. If the loans come due (which 100s of millions do next year) no way they get refinanced..../13
...there may be something I am missing here, but I do not see how the Trump Org survives this without some sort of corrupt deal overseas. But even that seems far-fetched. Instead, it may be the biggest real estate corp bankruptcy in history..../14
......and given that those of us who covered his business for decades - back when he was a democrat/reform party/whoever would have him - and always knew he was a crook, all I can say is, what the hell took so long?

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More from @kurteichenwald

11 Sep
I wasn't going to tweet today, but... @dallasnews had stories on vaccine/testing mandates, and then the Texas fights against masks under a big headline, "HEALTH OR CIVIL LIBERTIES?"

Goddamit! "I do what I want" is NOT civil liberties. Public health measures in a pandemic...1
...is not "health." As the National Constitution Center says, civil liberties are “basic rights and freedoms guaranteed to individuals as protection from any arbitrary actions or other interference of the government without due process of law.” Simply put, they're the basic...2
...rights and freedoms guaranteed by the Constitution. Again, "I don' wanna" doesn't fall into that category. Children are required to get vaccinated to go to school. we are required to get vaccinated to go overseas, people are required to get mega-vaccinated to join the....3
Read 7 tweets
10 Sep
Let's get fucking real. If you want to die, go ahead. Unfortunately, with COVID, just like when you drive drunk, you're likely to take others with you, which is why you don't have the "freedom" to drive drunk.

So here is your "freedom" to go without a mask or get vaccinated...1
...and here is your freedom....
...and here....
Read 8 tweets
10 Sep
This is the one that got to me of people attacking vaccines and then getting touched by COVID. Don’t blame Terena. She doesn’t know Fox and GOP are inexplicably lying. Yes, they should have taken extra precautions for the little girl but it’s the GOP liars who killed her…/1
….(sometimes you have to hit the picture to see the whole thing. Each one is a Retweet or comment by a woman named Terena.)….2
….this is another joke sent out by Terena….
Read 7 tweets
8 Sep
I wrote an article on abortion for Newsweek in 2015. There was a lot to it, but this story in this thread tore me up - and enraged me at the arrogance of some "pro-life" stranger who thought she had the right to determine what was best for someone else's child.../1
..."A pregnant woman is opposed to abortion and wants the child. But her water breaks at 22 weeks, meaning there wont be enough amniotic fluid for the fetus's lungs to develop. This innocent would have no possibility of living and would be in agony for as much as 15 minutes.../2
..."before dying. Which do you choose—an abortion or a newborn's excruciating death? This is not a hypothetical. It happened in 2010 to Danielle Deaver Grand Island, Nebraska. Unfortunately for her, Nebraska had passed a law declaring all abortions after 20 weeks illegal, so.../3
Read 6 tweets
20 Aug
Ok, since no one seems to know any of the history of Afghanistan before this week, a refresher:
2/29/20: There are 13,000 US troops there. Trump reaches deal with Taliban. Agrees Afghanistan Gov, which is not part of deal, will release 5,000 Taliban fighters. Requires Taliban...1
...to take action against al Qaeda, not to attack US troops or coalition forces, or launch high-profile attacks.
3/1/20: Afghan president freaks out, says US has no authority to commit to release prisoners held by Afghanistan. (Trump Admin forces it to happen anyway.)
...2
...
Despite there agreement not to attack any provincial capitals, Taliban unilaterally attacks Afghan forces in Helmand province.
3/19/2020: DOD IG says U.S. cut troop levels by more than 4,000, even though “Taliban escalated violence further after signing the agreement"...3
Read 16 tweets
20 Aug
Reality of Afghanistan: On 11/27/01, CIA fighters, special forces & Northern Alliance was chasing al Qaeda/bin Laden into Tora Bora, along Pakistani border. That day, Central Command discussing support when Rumsfeld told them he wanted them to focus instead on Iraq strategy...1
..the battle of Tora Bora began three days later, involving the CIA team (Jawbreaker), special forces, and Northern Alliance. There was bombing support. Jawbreaker leaders asked Pentagon for one battalion of Army Rangers dropped behind al Qaeda's position to trap them and then..2
...trap them before launching a massive bombing campaign. Al Qaeda would have been destroyed. Bin Laden would have been surrounded - captured or killed - just months after 9/11. The perpetrators of the massive terror attack would have paid the ultimate price...3
Read 6 tweets

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