A🧵on athletes reporting illness at the Military World Games in Wuhan, October 18-27

<epistemic status: gathering datapoints, not drawing conclusions>

Sources:
[1]@BillyBostickson's thread:
[2]My thread:
[3]research from @Iseravi1
Mathieu Brulet, 🇫🇷 runner. Got bronze at Wuhan, but says he was ill.
[1] lechorepublicain.fr/chartres-28000…
[2] fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathieu_B…
[3] intensite.net/2009/actu2019/…
Elodie Clouvel, 🇫🇷, pentathlete
[1]dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8…
Valentin Belaud, 🇫🇷, pentathlete (husband of Clouvel ^)
[1] dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8…
Anonymous, 🇫🇷
[1] rmcsport.bfmtv.com/jeux-olympique…
Matteo Tagliariol, 🇮🇹, fencer. Said he and 5 roommates got COVID-like symptoms, long recovery. Fever & difficulty breathing continued even a week after returning home. Doctor told him many were ill and could run out of meds. Wife and child at home got ill.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3932712
Oliver Gorges, 🇱🇺, triathlete. Tons of articles saying he was about to get antibody testing but nothing about results! Said Wuhan was a 'ghost town'. insidethegames.biz/articles/10943…
Raphaël Stacchiotti, 🇱🇺, swimmer
lessentiel.lu/fr/luxembourg/…… …
Pit Brandenburger, 🇱🇺, swimmer. According to teammate Julien Henx: lessentiel.lu/fr/luxembourg/…. They fell ill, didn't swim, stayed in bed. Doctor assumed flu. Henx shared room but didn't fall ill. Was condemned by military and didn't speak to press after that lequotidien.lu/sport-national…
Bob Bertemes, Michel Erpelding🇱🇺 not ill but recall infrared temp checks at airport. Athlete village cleaned twice a day, streets cleaned at midnight every day. Also says phones were scrambled, and there were checkpoints between athlete village and Wuhan. lequotidien.lu/sport-national…
Melina Westerberg 🇸🇪 pentathlete. Said many of her compatriots were sick at the Games, but none tested positive for the virus claiming: "It was just a coincidence, we all felt safe." insidethegames.biz/articles/10943…
Jacqueline Bock, 🇩🇪, volleyball. Says teammates also ill, and her dad got ill after she came home. dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8…
Torsten Timm🇩🇪 video reporter, got ill while leaving Wuhan. Shared a room with 6 others, said colleague had fallen ill a few days before. Recovery took 2 months. Tested May 2020, negative for antibodies. The colleague tested positive for antibodies (when?) kreiszeitung.de/lokales/oldenb…
German delegation, is quoted in a few places saying they didn't notice anything unusual and in fact had fewer ill people than usual. t-online.de/sport/id_87845…
2 🇨🇦athletes, anonymous - financialpost.com/diane-francis/…
Rebel news reports that ~50 🇨🇦athletes were quarantined on Polaris aircraft that flew them home. They also share docs sent to the athletes telling them they left China "well before" the virus started circulating, which we now know to be incorrect. rebelnews.com/covid_coverup_…
non-athlete random person on twitter -
Pedro Retuerto, & Diego Uceta, 🇪🇸, Boxing. Uceta said fell ill 15 days after arrival and had to see doctor, more ill than ever. diariodevalladolid.elmundo.es/articulo/casti… diariodevalladolid.elmundo.es/articulo/valla…
Arkadiusz Wojtas Więcej🇵🇱 physiotherapist: "several people became quite ill" after return. "had a fit of something like flu, after the disease, respiratory problems, lack of condition and fatigue with normal exercise appeared." sportowefakty.wp.pl/kolarstwo/9272… AND zdrowie.radiozet.pl/Medycyna/Wiado…
Damian Zaborowski🇵🇱 doctor. Said he fell ill when returning home. Says it's possible the games were a delayed ticking bomb for COVID, though also thinks it's implausible sport.onet.pl/inne-sporty/sw…
Other Polish participants have dismissed it, said noticed nothing unusual sport.pl/sport/7,173950….
Swiss delegation says nothing unusual blick.ch/sport/mehr_spo…
pausing here for now, please post any other clear-cut cases as responses and I will organize them in the thread as we go. This thread will be part of a bigger project to organize 2019 indications before the end of December.

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More from @alexandrosM

5 Jul
Why do I find the lab leak conversation suppression interesting?

Where else can we see our sensemaking fail in real-time, this clearly?

- Govenment
- Academia
- Medicine
- Journalism
- International orgs
- Factcheckers
- Tech Companies
- Wikipedia

All getting it wrong at once.
Wikipedia should never have classified the lab leak hypothesis as "misinformation", but even now it's still "debating" whether to correct: cnet.com/features/wikip…
Here's how fact checkers, Facebook, and YouTube have handled it. Facebook in particular had to pull an about-face after deleting over *one million* posts.
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A🧵on retrospective wastewater (aka. sewage water) studies that attempted to pick up early signs of SARS-CoV-2

<epistemic status: gathering datapoints, not drawing conclusions>
Santa Catarina (Florianopolis), Brazil🇧🇷, November 2019 - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Milan & Turin, Italy🇮🇹, December 2019 - euronews.com/2020/06/19/cov…
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4 Jul
This is a🧵of🧵s organizing the early datapoints we have on the origins of SARS-CoV-2. After starting a thread for open-ended datapoint gathering I realized there is too much to follow up in one place, so I'll be starting individual 🧵s and collecting them all as replies to this.
The intent of this thread is to gather different types of datapoints, and eventually attempt to stitch the different types together into a coherent story we can have more confidence in.

If you're curious about the original thread, it can be found here:
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A🧵on studies attempting to infer the date of origin of the virus

<epistemic status: gathering datapoints, not drawing conclusions>
Scientists from UK and Germany attempted to genetically map the earliest strands of SARS-CoV-2 in order to create a picture of the virus' evolution. Estimates first infection between mid-Sep and early December. cam.ac.uk/research/news/… Image
This analysis from Harvard Medical School uses satellite imagery and Baidu search logs to infer the time of first infections at around mid-August or September 2019 dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/42669… ImageImage
Read 6 tweets
2 Jul
When you have a truly new idea, you *will* get pushback solely because the idea is new or different. While you should heed other feedback, you should immediately discard this kind. It exists only to stop you. It is so predictable I can list it without even knowing the idea: 🧵
"if it's so good, why isn't everyone doing it already?"

This implies that everyone is looking for great ideas and adopting them as fast as possible. But if everyone assumes it of everyone else, and treats absence of adoption as evidence of fatal flaws, who will do any adopting?
"We've been doing things this way for ever. Why change?"

Because leaving improvement on the table is creating ever expanding vacuum for a competitor to step into and crush you. And because on some level if you're doing worse than what's possible, you're failing your customers.
Read 16 tweets
2 Jul
Say you're the Chief of an anti-corruption agency. You're trusted with broad decision-making authority.

Your agency has a large budget, staff, career ladder, pension plan, union, &c

One day, a scientist shows you a button that will end corruption forever.

Do you press it?🧵
This thought experiment shows a number of things at the heart of our current civilizational predicament.

On some naive level, you'd expect the Chief of an anti-corruption agency not only to press such a button immediately, but to have been desperately seeking it already.
The fact that it seems intuitively obvious that the Chief would be motivated to find a reason not to press the button, even if it was someone deeply honest and caring, shows you how our system is structured in such a way to force good people to do bad things.
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