Several scientists are referring to an unreviewed short Swiss paper to support the idea that Long Covid in children is minimal. medrxiv.org/content/10.110… (1)
The authors correctly point out "limitations include the relatively small number of seropositive children, possible misclassification of some false seropositive children, potential recall bias, parental report of child’s symptoms, and lack of information on symptom severity" (2)
The paper reports on just 109 children picked up as seropositive compared with 1246 negatives. No conclusions can be drawn because of classic type 2 error: failure to reject a false null hypothesis because of an underpowered study. (3)
In other words, the study is far too small to make any judgment about small percentage levels of Long Covid accurately. (4)
Indeed, if we took their estimate of 3 or more symptoms at 4 weeks in positive children at 7% compared with 2% in negatives, we might (incorrectly) conclude that if 60% of 4.2 million children 12-17 become infected, 120,000 or more could have prolonged symptoms. (5)
A Trump Presidency raises scary issues for all of us about how far he will go with an authoritarian or Fascist agenda. Here are NINE questions about what might happen in 2025? (THREAD)
1. As Trump orders the removal of 2 million ‘illegals’ in the largest ethnic cleansing in American history since the genocide of American Indians: how many innocents will die or be killed? How will Mexico respond? Will these expulsions increase US labour costs and inflation?
2. Will he destabilise the global economy through punitive tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico and Europe. Will tariffs + fiscal incontinence cause inflation? If foreign states become poorer will they invest less in the US stock market + treasuries, leading to a stock market shock?
Today's Lancet climate and health report presents 56 indicators of health and climate change across FIVE domains. (Download the report for free from the Lancet website). Here is a thread of some of the key findings. #Lancetclimate24 (1)
Heat-related deaths among over 65s are at their highest ever level (2)
Almost half the global land area is being affected by extreme drought for at least one month each year. (3)
Whitty's excuse about upscaling testing is wrong. He should have set up an advisory group to get this moving from day one. The excuses about lack of infrastructure compared with S Korea is a retrospective excuse and misleading. (1) THREAD
S Korea and the UK developed a test on the same day in January. S Korea had managed to get up to 6-18,000 tests per day during February 2020...see below. (2)
We can see from Adam Kucharski's figure that their R fell below 1 by early March and they stopped the epidemic in two hotspot areas. They have since had five times fewer deaths and no lockdowns. We are not talking about 'mass testing'. (3)
On the Today programme this morning Sir John Bell echoed the official story that in the first six months of the pandemic we faced a new virus with little evidence to guide us. Nothing could be further from the truth. THREAD (1)
We can’t compare death rates between countries say statisticians. Sir Patrick Vallance wrote to the Inquiry that “a 'zero Covid' strategy could have been pursued, but required a national lockdown and border closures by the end of February.. (2)
to be continued indefinitely.” These statements are wrong. As early as January 28 2020 the UK Scientific Advisory Group of Experts (SAGE) unanimously decided on a pandemic strategy based on the wrong virus, influenza, simply to limit the spread. (3)
One reason why climate change doesnt energise politicians and the public is because we describe heating in terms of temperature. Saying the world has warmed by 1.2 degrees seems like a nice pleasant weekend. Here are some other ways to describe it... (1)
We pump 1,337 tonnes of CO2 into our thin and fragile atmosphere every second... (2)
How much energy was required to heat the world by 1.2 degrees. In terms of 'Hiroshima bomb equivalents' how many bomb loads of energy have been added? Sixty, 600, 6 million or 6 billion? (3)
How does poor family purchasing power in 1734 compare with Universal credit in 2023?
Jacob Vanderlint in Money Answer’s All Things in 1734 gave a budget for a laborer, wife+4 children in London of 16shillings per week to cover meat, bread,milk, salt, sugar, butter, cheese and beer (to avoid perils of water), coal, soap, candles, thread and rent for two rooms.
We might add on another two shillings for crisis expenses, transport, clothes and medicines. In 1750 £1 was equivalent to £284 purchasing power in 2023. That’s £256 per week or £1109 per month for the family costs in 2023 prices