Carrick Blake Profile picture
Jul 7, 2021 21 tweets 12 min read Read on X
And here it is, the Second Bajad8ta Analysis thread on the Lions Tour. This time we breakdown the Sigma Lions vs B&I Lions game. All stats come from the #Bajad8ta team.

Enjoy :)
As with last week’s analysis let’s first look at the scoreboard:

8 converted tries to 2, shows complete dominance from the B&I Lions. Again the Lions did not kick for points even early in the game, opting to keep attacking perhaps a sign of confidence, or to build cohesion
The Lions will also be happy with how they converted rarely leaving points on the field. The only true missed opportunity possibly being for Wyn Jones.
Next let’s look at the story of the game, this will focus on, 22 entries, points per quarter and penalties
22 Entries.
B&I Lions: 13 entries
Sigma Lione: 4 entries.

With over 3 times the amount of entries it's another sign of the B&I Lions dominance.

Importantly they were also consistent throughout the game, something that was also evident in the scoring breakdown.
The game was won by the last quarter, but in contrast to the final Quarter against Japan, the B&I Lions increased their rate of 22 entry. Which will be encouraging for the Squad.

Their conversion rate remains excellent, 56 points and average points per entry rising to 4.3
This is really strong given that, if a team leaves the opposition 22 with points every time they enter, they would score a minimum average of 3 points per entry, so the Lions 4.3 is well above average. This again is a sign of their dominance.

Credit: @simongleave.
This scoring by Quarter shows the Lions dominance, with the Sigma Lions only getting some parity in the second Quarter.

It remains to be seen if the B&I Lions can truly up their performance in that final quarter, as they will need to play some tougher opposition first.
Penalties Conceded is also very reflective of the flow of the game.

The B&I Lions will be pleased they brought the Numbers down to single digits, but will want to see those spikes in Q1 & Q4 come down.
Something new this week, a penalty Map showing where penalties were conceded.

Pen’s: 2-5 were a penalty sequence, where the B&I Lions gave successive Penalties away. Penalty chains cause huge changes in momentum and is something they’ll want to avoid.

@thedeadballarea
Playmaker breakdown (or balance) shows us how teams chose to play:

The B&I Lions showed good variation in their game, potentially as a result of Russell and Farrell at 10 & 12 but the increase in playing off the 2nd receiver is exciting to see.

*stats by @analysisguy0502
The pod breakdown/balance is another fascinating area. The B&I Lions carrying far less by way of their Pods.

Again this is showing great variation in their play, with the ball movement within the pods is a healthy sign.
Attacking statistics speak for themselves, quick ruck speed and a high progression rate again indicative of their dominance.

Credit: @theanalysisguy
In defence, both sides had 85 tackle incidents, but the B&I Lions recorded 49 multiman tackles to 37 from the Sigma Lions.

This is illustrative of the Sigma Lions one-dimensional play in the B&I Lions 22 early in the game.

*May differ from the official stats
Finally Ruck Discipline:

The Lions attacked 12 rucks (competed) and disrupted 13 (counter ruck, pulled men forward etc…).

25 out of 85 rucks is an increase from the Japan game, but not huge. It may be a sign of oppposition or possibly players being more comfortable in defence
Final Thoughts:
Overall the B&I Lions will be again pleased with a first win on SA soil, continuing the trend of winning their tour opener.

Things like penalties and playmaker balance certainly headed in the right direction but they’ll want to face much sterner opposition.
Attack was again rampant, and they'll be happy with both their chance creation and conversion.

Defence showed there are still some soft spots for the B&I Lions, particularly around the post ruck and that’s something that should be a focus.

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More from @analysisguy0502

Aug 1
So how can you add nearly 3 points a game to your performance from a single skill, using @Oval_Insights data lets find out.

In short, practice your kicks to touch

The ability to get the ball down the line as far as possible can help take your team to the next level

1/
The graph below shows the chance of scoring from lineouts, using data across multiple seasons and leagues.

As you get closer to the the try the chance of scoring increases, so a lineout 10 metres or closer to the opponents try line results in a try over 20% of the time

2/ Image
This is the same graph, the importance of a good kick to touch is clear

If the kick is poor and ends less than 20 metres out, but not in the final 10 metres then the chance of scoring is ~10% lower.

3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
Dec 4, 2023
Using @Oval_Insights data it is clear to see the beenfits of playing wider in rugby

A phase that has 40m of width, average over 5m gained but a phase 20m or less from the ruck averages less than 2m.

But which teams are maximising the benefits of width and what can we learn?

1/ Image
One of the best teams for wide attacks unsurprisingly are the Scarlets

They are one of just 5 URC teams to average over 5m.

Two of their tries v Cardiff offer a great chance to learn about how to open up this space.

2/ Image
This first clip shows how Scarlets move the ball from a kick receipt.

Key is that Scarlets use multiple layers allowing them to create a 1 on 1 match outside of Cardiff's main press.

Williams beats Halaholo steps inside then links with Davies for an opening Scarlets score.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Sep 14, 2023
France 2023 lost another big name this morning with Malcolm Marx dropping out of the South Africa squad with an ACL injury

But what can @Oval_Insights data tell us, about what they’ve lost and where they go from here?

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Starting with his radar we can see that he brings big impact with ball in hand sitting in the top 25% for both metres per carry and offloads compared to pro level hookers.

We also see his ability over the ball winning more turnovers than 20% of hookers

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The Boks have delayed naming a replacement for Marx

Which given they only have one specialist hooker in the squad is interesting so who are the 3 players that are likely to be an option

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Read 12 tweets
Jul 7, 2023
The count down is on with less than 24 hours until the Springboks take on the Wallabies.

One crucial element for success will be the scrum.

But who has the best Scrum using @Oval_Insights data and a new custom metric lets dig deeper

1/
Last year South Africa won the highest proportion of scrums at 84%.

In 2021 New Zealand won 85% of scrums.

So there we go. South Africa were the best last year and the Kiwis were best in 2021.

And the 2021 All Blacks were better scrummagers than 2022 Boks

2/
But these raw statistic are not very useful

Instead we can use SPAR

SCRUM POWER AGAINST RIVALS

SPAR looks at how successful Front Rows both as a unit and individually fare in each scrum.

But it looks beyond Win/Loss to consider the strength of the opponent

3/
Read 9 tweets
Dec 26, 2022
Welcome to Boxing Day, and welcome to the fifth thread breaking down how teams win in international rugby

While the past few days have focussed on what they need to achieve, today I will focus more on what they actually do

Hope you enjoy

T5 - 1/
When looking at a teams approach, we mainly consider their play making balance. Looking at whether they play Off 9 or Off 10 can tell us a lot

The below graph shows each team we've studied and the % of phases Off 9 versus those playing off a first receiver

2/
So what does this graph show?

Firstly we can break teams down into clusters in tableau showing how similar teams are

In general the Orange are the direct teams, while those in blue use 10 as a primary distributor and the greens sit some where in the middle.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Dec 25, 2022
Merry Statsmas all here is the first gift.

Our Top 5, the metrics the data shows as key for winning teams

A reminder that all this is based on over 150 games analysed using a mixture of methods by one of the best in business @J52Wallusch

Lets start digging in

T2 - 1
The table below shows the importance of each metric to winning teams. The "mid" column is most important here, with lower and upper showing uncertainty.

Progress tops our chart with dominant contact rounding out the Top 5. Now let us work our way up.

2/
Dominance in the carry is key in all levels of rugby so unsurprisingly features in the Top 5. Allowing teams to get on the front foot which can develop their scoring chances.

Winners average 40.6% across the data with losers on 36.9% about 4 more dominant carries per game.

3/
Read 9 tweets

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