I do not have a >1/200 chance of dying of COVID if I get it.

The JH calc in Nature says it's closer to 4 in 10 million, or 1 in 2.5M. covid19risktools.com:8443/riskcalculator

@VincentRK - How do you justify making these kinds of abjectly false assertions? Noble lie?

Serious question.
It's possible that you think you're doing something good & that it's better to be 'cautious' and overstate risk, but instilling irrational fear is unhealthy.

Encourage people to vaccinate but don't lie to them. It's infantilizing, coercive, harmful and degrades your credibility.
And, yes, the 4 in 10 million is the absolute rate of mortality in my geo location and my pop subgroup for the last 3 weeks - not just C19 deaths presumably - but that gives a far more accurate picture of individualized risk.
Because we're getting into the "But you're not calculating your official IFR" weeds - disregarding the fact that incidence, previous infection, co-morbidities, etc matter... based on age-alone:

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More from @AJKayWriter

2 Jul
Victimhood is alluring to a lot of people because it does 3 things:

1. Attracts sympathy/support/validation
2. Insulates from criticism
3. Defers or redirects responsibility

Unfortunately, while those things can *feel* good, they don't do much to change one's circumstances...
Change requires taking responsibility...which erases most of the above benefits.

When you are no longer a victim, you can be held responsible for your choices and are vulnerable to criticism.

And for a lot of people, that's just too emotionally risky...
The irony is that progression of the victim mindset is not just entitlement to the above, but that other ppl are obligated to fix your prob for you...

which causes misery, resentment, confusion when ppl decline.

So you feel bad anyway...& you're stuck in your circumstances.
Read 4 tweets
25 Jun
I believe that they really don't know.

Let's help them out.
It was 52/47 eight minutes ago. Keep it up!
Rockstars. Every one of you. 👏👏👏
Read 8 tweets
16 Jun
We can’t invoke the precautionary principle with masks because they haven’t been studied.

And they should be.

B/c proactive parents sent their kids masks to a lab and the results were disturbing.

The hygiene hypothesis has been invoked to counter suggested harm from keeping bacteria-laden cloth over kids’ noses/mouths 8 hrs/day, as well as claims of no increases in strep/inf?

How would we know?

How many local increases haven’t been reported? abc12.com/2020/10/02/hea…
As for the hygiene hypothesis, typical environmental exposure vs. contrived antiseptic sterility is a good thing.

But it’s disingenuous to claim that direct oral/mucosal/dermatological contact + inhalation for prolonged periods of time does not qualify as “typical exposure”.
Read 5 tweets
15 Jun
Watching Pink Floyd’s Roger Waters respond to Mark Zuckerburg’s mind-bogglingly audacious request to use ‘Another Brick in the Wall 2’ in some Instagram ad w/

“Fuck you. I won’t be a party to this bullshit”

was easily the best part of my day.

Watch the whole thing. He nails it
Attempting to co-opt a classic anti-authoritarian anthem to promote an org that openly supports and engages in censorship is just un-fucking-believable.

“We don’t need no thought control”, indeed.
And as a totally bizarre and 100% true coincidence, my daughter *just* sat down on the couch next to me wearing this shirt:

Well played, universe. 👊
Read 4 tweets
12 Jun
Jeremy thinks that teen’s mental health is suffering b/c they lost so many loved ones.

Not b/c they were masked, isolated, and deprived.

Jeremy & I disagree.

In my fam,

A.) We know zero ppl who died w/

B.) Restrictions caused their despair

Don’t believe me? Read on...
Read 17 tweets
11 Jun
I have 3 teen girls & a tween. Pre 3/20, they were growing & thriving. Since 3/20, they all, at some point, wanted to escape this dystopian world b/c

*Rites of Passage cancelled
*Sports gone
*Grades ⬇️
*Futures MIA

Two lost 20lbs each.
Graduations, Proms, School, College, Study Abroad— All cancelled

Dating was impossible

They were freaked out at being treated like untouchables in public.

Masks scared them b/c they couldn’t read people faces

And every day was Groundhog Day...
Masks = terrible skin problems which affected their self-esteem

One covered her mirror.

No in-person counseling

My two performers couldn’t perform.

They lost trust that adults around them (besides me) gave 2 shits.

And they were shamed for not being ‘resilient’ enough...
Read 7 tweets

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