Inflation as measured by CPI increased at a 5.4% rate year-over-year last month and 0.9% month-over-month. Core inflation—without food/energy—rose 4.5% year-over-year and 0.9% month-over-month. A large part of the increase is due to cars and pandemic-affected services. 1/
Cars once again accounted for a large share of the increase. Used cars, new cars, auto parts, and car rentals together made up about 60 percent of core month-over-month inflation 2/
Prices of pandemic-affected services rose again this month and contributed 11 basis points to the core inflation increase in June. 3/
Without cars and pandemic-affected services, core inflation rose 0.22 percent month-over-month, relative to 0.28 percent in May and 0.31 percent in April 4/
The year-over-year numbers were impacted by base effects from last year, although the impact of base effects is starting to move out of the data. Starting in July, year-over-year changes in CPI will be calculated off of a price level that is above the pre-pandemic level. 5/
Controlling for base effects by smoothing across the 16 months since February 2020, the rate of CPI inflation was 3.5%. 6/
In core inflation, controlling for base effects the rate of annualized CPI inflation was 3.1% 7/
We know that the recovery from the pandemic will not be linear. The Council of Economic Advisers will continue to monitor the data as they come in. /end
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Today the Census Bureau released its estimates of income, poverty and health insurance for 2023, which showed that the strong economy and key Biden-Harris Administration policies helped fuel real income gains, especially for those at the lower end of the income distribution. 1/
Real median household (HH) income had a strong year, up by $3,070 (4%). A gain of this magnitude has occurred only 3 other times in this series, which begins in 1967. Further, median income reached an all-time high for Black HHs. /2
Relative to 2020, median HH incomes rose in real terms for all, Black, Hispanic, White non-Hispanic, and Asian HHs by between $700 (Hispanic) and $2,650 (Black) or 1% to 4.9%. /3
Real GDP grew by 2.8% in the second quarter, above expectations for 2.0%. Over the last four quarters, GDP grew by 3.1%. In Q2, growth was fueled by another quarter of strong consumption growth, as well as business investment. 1/
Real private domestic final purchases (PDFP), which removes net exports, inventory investment, and government spending, is estimated to have grown by 2.6%, consistent with the strong growth rates seen since 2023Q1. 2/
Over the past year, real GDP grew 3.1%. This is considerably faster than what private forecasters anticipated a year ago, when the Blue Chip consensus forecasted 0.4% real GDP growth over this period. 3/
Today’s employment report shows the U.S. economy added 206,000 jobs in June, just above expectations. Prior months’ estimates were revised down by 111,000 on net. Through May, the average three-month gain in payrolls was a healthy 177,000. 1/
Employment gains were widespread across industries, but were led by private education & health services, state & local government, and construction. The diffusion index, which measures the share of private sector industries with growing jobs, increased to 59.6%. 2/
The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% and the labor force participation (LFPR) rate ticked up to 62.6%, suggesting that increased labor force participation partly led to the increase in the unemployment rate in in June. 3/
Marking the 60th anniversary of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, a new CEA Issue Brief summarizes research on the continued prevalence of discrimination by race in a variety of economic domains & presents new analysis on racial discrimination and racial bias. 1/ whitehouse.gov/cea/written-ma…
The Civil Rights Act of 1964 outlawed segregation in public places, outlawed employer discrimination on the basis of race, color, religion, sex, and national origin, and created the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission to enforce the law's provisions. 2/
While the U.S. has made progress in many domains since the 1960s, CEA details evidence of present-day differential treatment by race in access to housing, employment, and business loans—even in settings where there are no relevant differences across groups other than race. 3/
Today’s employment report shows the U.S. economy added 175,000 jobs in April, a bit below expectations. Revisions to prior months’ estimates were relatively small on net. Through April, the average three-month gain in payrolls was a healthy 242,000. 1/
The unemp. rate ticked up to 3.9% in April, the 27th straight month below 4%, tied for the longest period since the late 1960s. The broadest measure of underemployment, U-6—including those working part-time for economic reasons and the marginally attached—ticked up to 7.4%. 2/
The unemployment rate of Black workers fell to 5.6%, reversing its rise last month. The unemployment rates for Hispanic and Asian workers ticked up to 4.8% and 2.8%, respectively, but both remain lower than their rates last at the end of last year. 3/
Today’s Employment Cost Index (ECI) release shows that wages for private sector workers grew 1.1% between December and March, slightly higher than the three-month growth of 1.0% through December, and somewhat elevated versus the 0.8% average in 2018 & 2019. 1/
Excluding incentive-paid occupations—in which pay tends to be more volatile—private-sector wage growth was also 1.1%. 2/
Total compensation for all civilian workers (except those in the federal government) rose 1.2% in the three months ending in March, a bit higher than the 0.9% growth in the three months through December. 3/