Tomas Pueyo on the #Delta Variant

This could be extremely bad.

Many people optimistically assumed that #Covid19 would evolve to become more infectious and less lethal. Unfortunately, it has become more infectious 𝘢𝘯𝘥 more lethal.…
The only good news here is vaccines seem to really help. Reminds me that I need to book a vaccination appointment.
Also, thanks to @akarlin88 for reminding me, @gcochran99 was on this as early as last year:…
Over time, how does this game play out?

If we assume that evolution keeps doing its thing, the next variant will be even more deadly and even more transmissible. The virus can keep playing this game for decades.
A more permanent solution will eventually be required: either a much better vaccine, or much better non-pharmaceutical interventions, or both.
Apparently the theory says that connectivity leads to virulence:

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More from @RokoMijicUK

6 Jul
If you're thinking of investing in #cryptocurrency right now I would recommend dollar cost averaging rather than buying everything at once.

I cannot predict the markets perfectly, but I anticipate that there is probably some downside to come.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see Ethereum's price cut in half within 6 months.

Of course, it could also rip upwards.

Dollar cost averaging is the best you can do if you can't time the market - you buy some too expensive, and some cheap.…
I made a map of how this was probably going to turn out last month, and it seems to have held up well so far. Of course, this is very uncertain and dollar cost averaging will protect you from the ups and downs.

Read 4 tweets
5 Jul
I'm sure nothing will go wrong with this approach to #COVID19 ... 😂

We are entering the era of permanent covid-19. There will be variants, the only question is how bad they will be and how many people will suffer serious side-effects from covid.… Image
If this goes badly, we could see a decade of disruption to life. The whole 2020s essentially.

From what I understand, there isn't a strong reason to expect #COVID19 to become less harmful any time soon. (@gcochran99 has said this).
The optimistic take is that the variants won't be that bad.

The pessimistic version is we'll get one or two really bad variants and a lot of people will take serious damage.

We just don't know how it'll turn out.
Read 4 tweets
4 Jul
But many controversial issues have information ecologies that operate on a higher level.

In this case I think we have a signalling equilibrium - if you're in favor of any form of eugenics (no matter how well-argued or reasonable) you're a bad person.
The information environment we see surrounding eugenics is a result of this game.

The actual truth of the matter is basically sidelined by the signalling game.

What is the truth?

As always, it's messy and complicated and high-dimensional and doesn't fit into a cliche.
The same general rule applies to all controversial subjects. There's a messy/complicated/high-dimensional truth, and then there's a clear-cut, simple, one-dimensional signaling game when you say things to prove what a good person you are.
Read 5 tweets
4 Jul
He was right about transistors but his views on Eugenics are worthless.

Darwin was right about evolution but his views on Eugenics are worthless.

Keynes made some huge contributions to economics, but his views on Eugenics are worthless

Plato, one of the greats of philosophy, also had worthless views on eugenics.

I mean you can probably count a good 50% of the intellectual greats of the Western Tradition as being pro-eugenics in some form, but of course they're all idiots and wrong and bad
... and we need to tear their statues down!
Read 7 tweets
2 Jul
MEV is the unfriendly AI of #Ethereum.

Ethereum is growing this dark monster called a "generalized frontrunning algorithm" that basically steals from you whenever you do anything on #Ethereum.
An example of what The Monster can do:

You have a position on AAVE that's in danger of being liquidated because the market moved against you. That's OK though, you can just send a transaction to add collateral or reduce leverage...
Well when you do that, The Monster sees your "avoid liquidation" transaction, and inserts a liquidation transaction before it.

So, first, The Monster liquidates you, then your extra collateral arrives - after you've been #rekt.
Read 6 tweets
15 Jun
Stories of people who die in the wilderness tend to have a common theme that the victims could easily have saved themselves if they had thought carefully about this situation and not acted rashly.
This woman, for example, died of starvation after spending 18 days just 600 meters from a trail.

One could easily use sticks and markers to methodically search a 1km radius from one's position within a day. But she didn't.
According to this forum thread, she had a map and compass too.…
Read 5 tweets

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