New! June border numbers are out, and the diverging trends I've discussed re: families/kids and single adults have—once again—diverged!
After rising every month since May 2020, single adults apprehensions finally fell. Meanwhile, after falling for two months, families/kids rose.
Overall border apprehensions rose 3.4% from May to June, after having fallen by 1% from April to May.
However, as has been the case for months now, the vast majority of people apprehended after crossing the border continue to be expelled under Title 42.
Despite a rise in families coming to the border, there were still over 8,000 expulsions of family units last month.
As a result, it continues to be the case that significantly fewer families and kids are being allowed into the United States to seek asylum than in 2019.
If we look only at families, 41,945 family units were allowed into the US last month after crossing the border between ports of entry, and 8,070 were expelled back to Mexico.
That's compared to 57,358 in June 2019, of which several thousand were sent back to Mexico under MPP.
One big new trend we're seeing is the Biden administration finally opening up the ports of entry for people to seek asylum, which is also driving up overall "encounters"—which is why my previous charts were all apprehensions, not counting people who come through the ports.
Finally, some important context when looking at comparisons to 2006 or earlier.
In 2006, for every 3 migrants apprehended crossing the border, an additional 5 made it through successfully. Today, it's closer to 1.
I'll end with this graph, which is one of the most important to understanding the numbers.
Title 42 led to unprecedented levels of repeat border crossings. As a result, even though apprehensions are now much higher than 2019, the number of PEOPLE who've crossed is still lower.
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NEW: the Trump admin has moved to terminate TPS for Honduras and Nicaragua, covering over 50,000 people
Both of these designations date back to 1999, meaning Trump wants to strip legal status from people who have had a background check every 18 months for the last 26 years.
That is not how ANYTHING works. You cannot just apply to become a citizen! There is no “line” that people can get in.
That is not how TPS works. No one enters on TPS. As a status it is ONLY available for people who are already inside the United States at the time the designation happens.
With this vote, Congress makes ICE the highest-funded federal law enforcement agency in history, with more money per year at its disposal over the next four years than the budgets of the FBI, DEA, ATF, US Marshals, and Bureau of Prisons combined.
Here is the funding for immigration enforcement in the bill, to be spent through September 30, 2029.
- $74.9 billion for ICE detention and removal
- $65.6 billion for CBP infrastructure, hiring, tech
- $10 billion DHS slush fund
- $3.5 billion for state enforcement
And more!
Read more about what's in the bill that just passed in our explainer. We estimate that ICE could increase detention capacity to at least 116,000 beds, including over 40,000 detention beds in tent camps — which we believe is a conservative estimate. americanimmigrationcouncil.org/fact-sheet/hou…
For those curious, those white things hanging from the ceiling are ventilation and air conditioning (which is seemingly not turned on where the picture was taken). If you count from the foreground, you can see one actively in use 7 down; it's inflated. Air comes out of the holes.
Seen some questions about where bathrooms are. Hard to say.
When I visited a CBP facility in Tucson that was built off of a similar model, there was a modified port-a-potty in the back of each cell and more bathrooms/showers outside of the cells.
If the bill passes, it could make ICE the nation’s largest jailer, with more funding for detention than the entire federal Bureau of Prisons. It would give ICE enough money to have more officers on board than the entire FBI.
This alone could transform American society forever.
If the GOP reconciliation bill passes, ICE gets through FY2029:
- $45 billion for detention, on top of the current annual budget of $3.4 billion
- $14.4 billion for transportation and removal, on top of the current annual budget of $750 million
- $8 billion for hiring
- And more
Read more about what’s in the reconciliation bill here. Note that our analysis has not yet been fully updated with changes made in the Senate bill.
NEW: Erez Reuveni, the DOJ lawyer fired for his honesty in the Kilmar Abrego Garcia case, tells Congress that Emil Bove suggested the DOJ respond to any court orders blocking the CECOT deportations with "fuck you."
He also says DOJ lawyer Drew Ensign lied to Judge Boasberg.
Reuveni accuses Drew Ensign, the DOJ lawyer appearing for the Trump admin in the Alien Enemies Act case, of lying to Judge Boasberg on March 15 when he said he didn't know planes were taking off.
He says Ensign was at a meeting the day before when the flight were planned!
Reuveni says that on March 15 he was emailing DHS updates telling them that Judge Boasberg was ordering DHS to halt the flights.
His supervisor, August Flentje, noted Bove's "fuck you" line and joked Reuveni might be fired for telling DHS not to violate the order.
DISASTROUS. This means they will send people to horrific situations with no due process — in direct violation of promises the Solicitor General made to the Court in previous cases.
This greenlights sending people to be enslaved in Libya or tortured in any random foreign country.
Today the GOP justices on the Supreme Court endorsed migrants being sold into slavery.
They'll claim otherwise, but that's the reality — today's decision permits Trump to send people from countries around the world to any global hellhole that accepts a U.S. financial incentive.
Sotomayor's dissent is scathing. She accuses her colleagues of a gross abuse of discretion, saying they "interven[ed] to grant the Government emergency relief from an order it has repeatedly defied."
She's right. The 6-justice majority is effectively endorsing contempt of court.