New! June border numbers are out, and the diverging trends I've discussed re: families/kids and single adults have—once again—diverged!
After rising every month since May 2020, single adults apprehensions finally fell. Meanwhile, after falling for two months, families/kids rose.
Overall border apprehensions rose 3.4% from May to June, after having fallen by 1% from April to May.
However, as has been the case for months now, the vast majority of people apprehended after crossing the border continue to be expelled under Title 42.
Despite a rise in families coming to the border, there were still over 8,000 expulsions of family units last month.
As a result, it continues to be the case that significantly fewer families and kids are being allowed into the United States to seek asylum than in 2019.
If we look only at families, 41,945 family units were allowed into the US last month after crossing the border between ports of entry, and 8,070 were expelled back to Mexico.
That's compared to 57,358 in June 2019, of which several thousand were sent back to Mexico under MPP.
One big new trend we're seeing is the Biden administration finally opening up the ports of entry for people to seek asylum, which is also driving up overall "encounters"—which is why my previous charts were all apprehensions, not counting people who come through the ports.
Finally, some important context when looking at comparisons to 2006 or earlier.
In 2006, for every 3 migrants apprehended crossing the border, an additional 5 made it through successfully. Today, it's closer to 1.
I'll end with this graph, which is one of the most important to understanding the numbers.
Title 42 led to unprecedented levels of repeat border crossings. As a result, even though apprehensions are now much higher than 2019, the number of PEOPLE who've crossed is still lower.
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Funny they ask this. Here's my effort at jotting down a brief timeline of actions the admin has "done to lower illegal crossings" over the last 3 years. I'm sure I'm missing some things. Some have been successful. Others have been not. But it's wild to claim they haven't tried.
To be clear, I’m neither endorsing these actions nor touting them as grand failures. As I’ve said before, Biden’s record on the border is a mixed bag. But the idea the administration has not taken actions it believes will reduce illegal entries is wrong as a matter of fact.
Take the CHNV deal the Biden admin made in January 2023; Mexico let the US expel more non-Mexicans migrants back across the border in exchange for the US starting a new parole program.
There are serious concerns about both parts. But unlawful crossings are demonstrably down.
He still won’t stop lying about the nature of this program. There are no “gov’s secretive immigrant flights.” There are people who get approved for a government program and have to buy a plane ticket to get here. The “flights” are United, Delta, American, etc…
I’ll also note that @BensmanTodd still refuses to acknowledge the major holes in his story that I pointed out multiple times, including his flagrant misrepresentation about what the government said in response to his FOIA.
@BensmanTodd Bensman’s falsehood-ridden post about the FOIA lawsuit is directly responsible for fueling a massive misinformation campaign about the CHNV parole program, a campaign which has seen US senators spreading wild falsehoods like the existence of “secret charter flights.
Beginning this moment, Texas law enforcement officers can arrest any person in the state they believe crossed illegally. And judges can now order people to walk back into Mexico at threat of 20 years in prison if they don't—even if the person has federal permission to be here.
Crucial context: Barrett and Kavanaugh both say they are not making any decision right now because of the weird procedural posture by which it made it to the Court's shadow docket, but say if the 5th Circuit doesn't act ASAP, they may change their minds.
SO what does this mean? Well, this means SB4 is in effect—for now. But the case is likely going back to the Supreme Court on an emergency poster within the next month, either because the 5th Circuit rules officially on the stay motion, or because they wait too long and don't.
🚨HUGE news. Judge Tipton dismisses the multistate lawsuit against the Biden admin's CHNV parole program, finding that the states do not have standing to sue.
That leaves the program alive for now. Texas will no doubt appeal to the 5th Cir.
Here is the key finding that Judge Tipton made: evidence shows that, after the parole programs went into effect, border crossings by people from the four CHNV countries went down (⬇️).
As he reads 5th Circuit law, since the program was a success, there can't be any injury.
The CHNV parole program represented Biden's big shift to a "carrot and stick" approach.
Mexico lets the US send 30,000 Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans back across the border each month. In exchange, the US agrees to take 30,000 people a month through parole.
SB4 even goes beyond federal immigration law by allowing the state to prosecute people with green cards if the person was previously been deported and then allowed to reenter legally by the federal government—prob because the people who wrote the law didn't know that was a thing.
Under SB4, any noncitizen who has previously been deported commits a Class A misdemeanor by stepping into Texas—even if they have since legally reentered and obtained permanent legal status. There are no affirmative defenses of lawful presence for the reentry crime.
I wouldn't be surprised if there are thousands of people living in Texas with green cards or other forms of legal immigration status who, at one point in their life, had been deported. If SB4 goes into effect, every one of them risks arrest.
DOJ and the other plaintiffs (private orgs + El Paso gov) win on pretty much every argument.
First, the court finds that SB4 violates the Supremacy Clause, because "it is undisputed that the federal government has a dominant and supreme interest in the field of immigration."
Next, the court finds that SB4's creation of new state crimes of illegal entry and reentry are field preempted, noting that the law "attempt[s] to vest a state with the power to punish federal immigration offenses," which is barred under Arizona v. US (2012).