Given we seem to be entering a new cycle of ‘emotional manipulation by fear using kids’, let’s revisit last years’ headlines to see how they turned out.

In Aug 2020, RR claimed ‘thousands’ of Canada’s young ppl were dying from C19.

A year later, the total number is in the tens.
In March - right from the get go - Bloomberg said that young people were falling seriously ill from Covid.

At the time of publishing, there had been 4 Covid-19 hospitalizations of <18 year olds in 14 surveillance states.


4 tenths of a percent of the total hospitalized.
I suppose this one could be technically defensive. They did say “May”.

But they also didn’t say “or it may not”…which is actually what ended up happening.
This Guardian piece cites an “spike” of cases that needed “serious” attention, but this time specified 20-44 year olds.

Had they cited hosps - not cases - they’d see that the ‘explosion’ totaled an increase of roughly 100 cases week-over-week, per national surveillance.
It’s unfortunate that using speculation and straight up untruths to prey on ppl’s fears is such a lucrative proposition but, nonetheless, here we are.

My hope is that pointing out the invalidity of past statements might help ppl - even just one or two - come to their senses.

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More from @AJKayWriter

16 Jul
Thoughts re: #DeleteFacebook

#DeleteFB to silence dissenting opinions


#DeleteFB to fight technocratic authoritarianism

are borne of competing ideologies but advocate for the same outcome.

The question is, which effect is deleting Facebook more likely to have?...
Deleting Facebook to silence dissent is somewhat redundant in its primary utility given FB already employs mechanisms to censor.

Then again, if the point of deleting is to take ownership of your information consumption (v. censoring others), that's a noble choice...
It's also likely that some intend a not-so-mass exodus to serve as a warning to Zuckerberg et al, i.e. "If you don't censor others MORE, I'm going to leave!"

& if he were smart, he would call their bluff, primarily because kowtowing to extortion only leads to more extortion...
Read 15 tweets
16 Jul
I wish one - just one- of the 320 people who liked this letter demanding that unvaccinated children be kept out of school for 10 days for being a contact, could tell me what problem it solves.

I asked.

No substantive answers yet.

Withholding ed is hardly a virtuous position.
Watching ppl revel in the prospect of discriminating against kids is some really dark stuff.
This is the best I got so far. And it’s not good.

This is the kind of reaction you get for daring to ask people to justify their support of denying kids in-person school.

Covid messaging has triggered (and co-signed) a really ugly, base side of a lot of people.
Read 4 tweets
11 Jul
I do not have a >1/200 chance of dying of COVID if I get it.

The JH calc in Nature says it's closer to 4 in 10 million, or 1 in 2.5M.

@VincentRK - How do you justify making these kinds of abjectly false assertions? Noble lie?

Serious question.
It's possible that you think you're doing something good & that it's better to be 'cautious' and overstate risk, but instilling irrational fear is unhealthy.

Encourage people to vaccinate but don't lie to them. It's infantilizing, coercive, harmful and degrades your credibility.
And, yes, the 4 in 10 million is the absolute rate of mortality in my geo location and my pop subgroup for the last 3 weeks - not just C19 deaths presumably - but that gives a far more accurate picture of individualized risk.
Read 4 tweets
2 Jul
Victimhood is alluring to a lot of people because it does 3 things:

1. Attracts sympathy/support/validation
2. Insulates from criticism
3. Defers or redirects responsibility

Unfortunately, while those things can *feel* good, they don't do much to change one's circumstances...
Change requires taking responsibility...which erases most of the above benefits.

When you are no longer a victim, you can be held responsible for your choices and are vulnerable to criticism.

And for a lot of people, that's just too emotionally risky...
The irony is that progression of the victim mindset is not just entitlement to the above, but that other ppl are obligated to fix your prob for you...

which causes misery, resentment, confusion when ppl decline.

So you feel bad anyway...& you're stuck in your circumstances.
Read 4 tweets
25 Jun
I believe that they really don't know.

Let's help them out.
It was 52/47 eight minutes ago. Keep it up!
Rockstars. Every one of you. 👏👏👏
Read 8 tweets
16 Jun
We can’t invoke the precautionary principle with masks because they haven’t been studied.

And they should be.

B/c proactive parents sent their kids masks to a lab and the results were disturbing.…
The hygiene hypothesis has been invoked to counter suggested harm from keeping bacteria-laden cloth over kids’ noses/mouths 8 hrs/day, as well as claims of no increases in strep/inf?

How would we know?

How many local increases haven’t been reported?…
As for the hygiene hypothesis, typical environmental exposure vs. contrived antiseptic sterility is a good thing.

But it’s disingenuous to claim that direct oral/mucosal/dermatological contact + inhalation for prolonged periods of time does not qualify as “typical exposure”.
Read 5 tweets

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