On Friday @StateHealthIN and @IndianaMPH revised the "Variants" section of the #Indiana #COVID19 dashboard so it shows % of samples sequenced *in the current month* that were variants. This improvement makes it so much clearer than it was before! coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm [1/5]
Here's some analysis I did a few weeks ago with the old version of the variant dashboard which I think highlights how difficult it was to interpret. This new version is so much more helpful and useful! Thank you @StateHealthIN & @IndianaMPH! [2/5]
So far in July 74.2% (!) of specimens tested were the Delta variant and only 6.7% weren't any variant of concern. So Delta is not only here but the dominant (by far) strain of #COVID19 in #Indiana. [3/5]
This also represents a 48% INCREASE in the proportion of samples that are the Delta variant compared to last month.

Although it's not completely clear to me if this implies:
A. 50.1% -> 74.2% (a 48% increase) or
B. 26.1% -> 74.2% (a 48 percentage point increase).
This is a huge improvement in #COVID19 variant data in #Indiana. Honestly the only other thing I'd love to see is a sample size (N). Is this out of 10s of specimens tested in the current month? 100s? 1,000s? It doesn't have to exact, a rough idea would be fine. [5/5]

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More from @MicahPollak

20 Jul
Increasing #COVID19 breakthrough cases is normal. In this thread we're going to look at how many breakthrough cases we should expect (in a statistical sense) as time goes on and why more breakthrough cases is NOT evidence vaccines are less effective than thought. [THREAD]
2/ I need to start by introducing the statistical concept of “expected value.” This is the statistically *most likely outcome to occur* for something you’re measuring when uncertainty is involved.
3/ For example, if you toss a coin 1,000 times, the expected value of the number of “tails” you'll get is 500. This doesn’t mean we’ll ALWAYS get exactly 500 tails out of 1,000 tosses, but it's extremely likely that the number you get will be very close to 500.
Read 18 tweets
27 Apr
Last week #Indiana administered administered 266,419 total doses of the #COVID19 vaccine to Hoosiers, which newly vaccinated 110,316 people. This is the second week vaccination levels have declined. The J&J pause is one factor (see next) [1/10]
During the week before the J&J pause, #Indiana administered ~35k J&J doses. If we were to add those missed doses back in (see here) this improves things some, and we likely would have done even better than this considering the mass vaccination clinics that were scheduled [2/10]
But adjusting for the "pause" we're still seeing a slowing in vaccination. Is it a problem? Is it vaccine hesitancy? Not necessarily either. Exhibit 1 is this thread I posted yesterday on why we shouldn't worry so much (yet) about vaccine hesitancy. [3/10]
Read 10 tweets
27 Apr
#NWIndiana #COVID19 update. More evidence that we may be over the peak of this latest wave with average daily new cases dropping 15% in the last 7 days (from 187/day to 159/day). Still elevated but seems to be coming down. [1/4]
Average #COVID19 test positivity for #NWIndiana has also dropped from 8.2% down to 7.0%. Still well above our record lows of 4.4% back in March and the current state average of 4.6%, but it's great to see it coming down. [2/4]
One area that remains concerning is hospital admissions for #COVID19 in #NWIndiana. These have been rising steadily since the middle of March. It's possible that it's simply too soon to see the effect of declining cases here. [3/4]
Read 4 tweets
26 Apr
How I Learned to Stop Worrying about Hesitancy and Love the Vaccine. [THREAD]
Let's be frank. The last four months have been a sprint to get those highest risk for #COVID19 in #Indiana vaccinated. But... we're past that now and into the marathon stage of vaccination. Worrying every dip in vaccination rate is a sign of hesitancy isn’t really helpful. [2/13]
Vaccine hesitancy MAY eventually be an obstacle in getting us to herd immunity for #COVID19, but even if it is (and I personally suspect it won’t be) it’s an obstacle we can overcome. [3/13]
Read 13 tweets
24 Mar
Yesterday #Indiana administered 45,394 total doses of the #COVID19 vaccine, which newly vaccinated 26,377
people. The 7-day average of daily newly vaccinated people (first & single doses) fell slightly to 24,841/day.[1/8]
22.5% of the total #Indiana population (all ages) are now fully or partially vaccinated for #COVID19. 14.5% are fully vaccinated. This does not include vaccinations done through the VA, but should mostly include everything else. [2/8]
The big news yesterday was the Governor announcing everyone age 16+ will be eligible for the vaccine starting March 31st (YAY!) and that all restrictions will be lifted April 6ht (huh?), well before they can be fully (or even partially) vaccinated. [3/8]
Read 8 tweets
24 Mar
With #Indiana opening #COVID19 vaccine eligibility to everyone age 16+ starting March 31st AND lifting all statewide restrictions (masks, distancing, etc.) on April 6th, let’s do some fun back-of-the-envelope calculations... [1/5]
*Best case* scenario first:
- Become eligible March 31
- Get same-day appointment (very unlikely)

Depending on the vaccine, earliest you could be “immune”?
April 14 (J&J)
April 28 (Pfizer)
May 5 (Moderna)

That’s 1-4 weeks AFTER all restrictions are lifted. [2/5]
More *reasonable* scenario:
- Become eligible March 31
- Book appointment 3 weeks out (current appointment availability)

Earliest you would be “immune”?
May 5 (J&J)
May 19 (Pfizer)
May 26 (Moderna)

That’s 4-7 weeks AFTER all restrictions are lifted. [3/5]
Read 7 tweets

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