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20 Jul, 19 tweets, 4 min read
Turkey's involvement in Afghanistan can create a new set of problems for Pakistan

How greater Turkish intervention could trigger a dangerous black hole in Afghanistan

Kabul wants chaos & needs it to survive. How does Turkey fit in?

Some incomplete thoughts in a THREAD:
Turkey's ambitions to help guard Kabul Airport are not for show. Kabul Airport is key infrastructure & the opportunity to cooperate with countries with similar interests, such as the US is important. This presents risks & benefits for Pakistan.
Turkey, despite opportunistically courting all sides, doesn't trust the Taliban to help uphold Turkish interests in Afghanistan. Hence why Turkey also maintained strong ties with the likes of Dostum. Turkey does not want Kabul to fall to Taliban.
Pakistan, who relies almost solely on the Taliban in Afghanistan for leverage currently, must liaise between Taliban & its other perceived ally Turkey as a mediator.
Poor Taliban ties with other countries involved in the peace process can improve Pakistan's leverage on them, but it should be understood that as things are, all sides are quick to court other powers & make concessions, so Pakistan should move quickly.
While Pakistan has limited control of mujahideen groups, including the Taliban, Turkey uses Turkic nationalism to help bolster support for its interests in Afghanistan, which was a concern shared by both Taliban & Kabul and should be a consideration for Pakistan.
If Turkic nationalism grows during a prospective civil war, the dynamics in Pakistan's neighbour will create a new set of problems for Islamabad. In fact, this is something that would worry Islamabad & Taliban both, while helping the Kabul regime- seemingly a foe of Islamabad.
As things progress, Taliban will be in Kabul in just a few months & the regime know their options are limited. Their trip to US largely failed, except they were handed equipment & were told "good luck". Staying in power/alive is the only thing that matters for Kabul right now.
One option for Kabul is to create a situation in Afghanistan that will suck in regional countries. They aim to suck Pakistan into Afghanistan & are trying to quietly persuade India that its support is needed to counter Pakistan.
Kabul would aim to create a Syria type situation of proxy war, because that's one of their best chances of survival. This way, the regime will get a guarantor & prolong the war. The effects on Pakistan of a proxy war need not be discussed here.
As Turkey does not want to see Kabul fall, they have offered to step in. So Turkey here could act as a guarantor of security for Kabul regime, which would potentially send them on a collision course with the Taliban. This kind of chaos is good for Kabul regime's survival.
Once any two states get sucked into this potential trap of proxy war, other states will naturally follow to protect their own interests. Not only would this include the likes of US, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, EU & Central Asian states, this also includes Pakistan & India.
It is complicated to discuss other countries & their ambitions in this thread. To sum things up so far: Turkish intervention in Afghanistan will create a new set of problems for a Pakistan that sticks to the same old ideas & strategies for dealing with the Afghanistan mess.
What about if Pakistan was willing & capable of slowing the Taliban down? While it outwardly appears that Pakistan only fixates on a Taliban takeover, the COAS & his lobby understand the threats of a Taliban takeover for Pakistan. Read this thread:
As I said, if one state gets dragged into this black hole, other states will come in to protect their interests. If pro Taliban lobby in Pak security establishment feel threatened by Turkish intervention, they may push for maneuevers that directly clash with Turkish interests.
If those concerned by a Taliban takeover in Pak's security, such as COAS get their way, you'll see a greater push for co-op with parties that aim to slow Taliban advancement down. This is an area of potential & long overdue co-op between Pakistan & the US. Turkey?
If Pakistan's COAS (& co) is willing to slow down the Taliban advancement & cooperate with the US in Afghanistan, then you should imagine he will be very open minded about working with Turkey in Afghanistan. Pakistan's diplomacy with both Turkey & Taliban could be very useful.
While Turkey & Pakistan may seem to be on a potential collision course in Afghanistan, it doesn't mean it should be all bad, because it may actually help. What should definitely be understood is that this intervention, if it goes strong, will present Pakistan with many dilemmas.
Thanks for reading this thread. If you found it useful, please like, share & retweet as they take a lot of effort to not only write, but think about before I write them. Sorry for any omissions & errors.

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More from @hilalofindus

18 Jul
A Taliban takeover will not bring peace to Pakistan.

Pakistan's forever Afghan threat is a geographic reality.

Why Pakistan should not expect peace to come through the Taliban.

Pakistan does not control the Taliban & Pakistan's influence on all mujahideen groups in Afghanistan exists only with severe limits. The balance of leverage between Pakistan & Taliban evens as Taliban strengthens. Taliban influence in Pakistan surges.
Taliban ideologically fraternise with "fellow mujahideen" groups that threaten Pakistan's interests, including designated terror group Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, who seek to impose radical extremist Islamism as state religion & policy.
Read 17 tweets

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