Kids and youth and COVID - an unofficial look at AB data (from the weekend)
< 20 are about 24% of the population, about 23% of COVID-19 cases, and about 3% of COVID hospitalizations. Looking at the last two waves with reopening Jan 11 and May 25th (or 29th?) can't remember
So far OVERALL about 4% (1 in 25) <10 years and 6% (1 in 16) of 10-20 year olds have tested positive, with 0.02% (1 in 4434) and .03% (1 in 2860) hospitalized in those age ranges. (Of the ~10,000 Albertans who have died of COVID, none have been <20).
2/
There definitely were lots of outbreaks in the last wave while case # were ridiculously high. The average number of cases per documented outbreak in schools really is lower than most other settings, with often under a handful of cases, with some big exceptions...
3/
where some educational settings had really big numbers- identified risks/ circumstances would be good to know - from here it really looks like schools that did the recommended things were generally amazing (and did better than many "adult" settings).
4/
It will be great to be able to vaccinate <12s once the vaccine efficacy and safety are proven in that group - as they are at low risk of severe COVID we need to set a v high bar for safety to balance risk-benefit. For now, to protect kids we need to VACCINATE THEIR ADULTS...
5/
and control community transmission. Next, keep up the symptom screening, isolation, and handwashing (this will help when COLDS COME BACK), assess /optimize the ventilation, and I suspect masking will depend on what's going down just before school start, like the ON guidance.
6/
Our children and teens deserve stability and safety this fall after going through so much.
Talk to any family members and friends in "wait and see mode" about vaccination: if they wait til fall and we have a big surge, we will be collectively failing the kids, who deserve better.
Adding a good point brought up- even if small numbers and not “clinically significant”, school outbreaks are hugely disruptive to all the hardworking staff, all the affected students and their families: again- protect them, keep transmission low, get vaccinated.
❌✅CORRECTION!
I crossed wires and was tired / not processing well- that’s about 10,000 HOSPITALIZATIONS in AB and DEATHS are over 2300. (There have been kids-youth hospitalized and COVID19 positive, and some in ICU but no documented deaths.)

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More from @AntibioticDoc

17 Jul
So, can virus on surfaces and hands matter for COVID-19?
Confession: I never wiped or stored packages or washed groceries. I’m a handwashing FIEND though, because my hands are how virus would get to me from the doorknob or whatever. Here’s a paper suggesting it matters:
1/
Colleagues did an ambitious study with many assessments of cultivatable virus in the setting of a hospital with outbreak transmission: THERE WAS LOADS OF VIRUS ON STUFF (and in patient secretions.) There haven’t been many studies like this, hard to do, so this is a big deal.
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This study suggests that ( just as airborne transmission should not have been dismissed just because the transmission seemed to better fit classic contact droplet) viruses on surfaces should not be dismissed as a possible transmission source especially in areas around active…
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17 Jul
A whole lotta oversimplification going on in some areas of COVID control debates, and I'm finding the discussions less productive than I'd hope because of repetitive misrepresentation, oversimplification and inflammatory takes, so just rounding things up a bit here...
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Was asked what I would do if I was in charge of schools - risk mitigation through HEPA (would I really wait and do more studies, with implication of excess risk in meantime) - first, no individual who can't access all internal info and operational costs of required measures...
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10 Jul
Sigh.
COVID info seekers, beware of these strong currents:
Twitter extremes with bonus pitched battles are massive right now.
Opposite takes on opening - dropping restrictions over summer and seeing cases start to rise in the unvaccinated are an utter bloodbath. It’s…
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So far from discourse it’s embarrassing to watch.
There are multiple international examples of “gangs” of adherents mounting sometimes personal attacks on the enemies of their idols. I often follow experts who have opposite views and have found it prevents me from getting …
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Blinkered or from falling down a self affirming bias well- I just want to understand the best current truth I can.
I’d say it works and both get some good points and disagree with some takes on both sides (hilariously this has led to me being seen as part…
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The nurse comes out of my HIV patient’s clinic room as I head in
“…doing really well with meds- oh, and they aren’t going to get their COVID shot.”
Hmmm.
This person is super intelligent, has had a pretty chaotic life, and has managed to get back on track and get control…
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of really severe HIV with bad complications, after years of challenges getting on and staying on treatment. They are wearing a public health themed T-shirt from their tiny remote community, have gained healthy weight (from being near skeletal), looks good, energetic,
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is managing a complex bunch of pills like a champ, has reengaged with family and friends.
Eventually, “So, I hear you aren’t sure about the COVID vaccine. I worry that there’s a lot of bad information that can look like good information out there honestly. It can be scary…
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21 Jun
So there’s a lot of discussion about delta VOC implications and some pretty dire predictions.
Here I’ll explain why I am “cautionmongering” rather than “fearmongering”.
There is NO doubt that the delta resurgence in the UK is real in spite of a strong vaccination rollout:
1/
So what’s going on?
Like Canada, the UK chose to cover more with first dose protection by delayed second doses (and thankfully have been a source of great data and studies, thank you UK!)
We have pulled ahead in vaccinations but they’ve recently poured on second doses
2/
Another difference between the UK vaccination program and Alberta specifically - we had quite early opening of vaccination to younger age groups with higher transmission- it’s incomplete but should help. As of early June when delta was getting rolling, this is the UK
3/
Read 14 tweets
18 Jun
I am nervous about the Alberta reopening gamble: will 70% 1 dose vaccinated plus transmission advantage of summer plus residual protective behaviours be enough?
I'd predict
1) we will see outbreaks related to more people seeing more people...
1/
2) We will see severe, hospitalized cases predominantly in unvaccinated people but also in medically vulnerable partially vaccinated and maybe fully vaccinated
3) Those hospitalization numbers will NOT necessarily take off, they may grumble along
2/
4) Communities and regions with lower vaccination rates will have more transmission. There will be "high risk" communities.
5) You can still protect others - remember to ISOLATE with symptoms (may be mild but you could spread to someone at risk) and test, so we can trace
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Read 4 tweets

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