Thread by @gnomeicide

Terrible Covid data in the UK today. 46558 cases and 93 deaths. Exponentials will bite you in the arse every single time. Here's the overall picture before delving deeper (1)

On exponential plots its fairly obvious whats going on. A straight line on a log plot means your're going up at an exponential rate. Cases and deaths are rising exponentially. (2)

93 deaths takes the 7 day total to 339. Its the highest single day total since the 24th of March, and the highest 7 day total since the 30th of March. And rising FAST. (3)

Another way of looking at it is that someone dies of Covid in the UK every 29.7 minutes. (4)

While its true we're nowhere near where we were at the peak, if you're comfortable with this trend then you need to readdress your priorities (5)

The 7 day average is up to just shy of 7% rise in deaths per day. Thats shocking (6)

332068 cases over the last 7 days, also rising exponentially. (7)

Its hard to construct a scenario where we don't reach a new record number of cases soon. We're at the highest seven day case total since the 16th of January (8)

And the trend of cases to rise by 5% a day is continuing. (9)

If you've any complacency that things are about so for some reason slow down, tell me why that would happen. Go on. (10)

As for hospitalisations, I mean, I hate to keep using the word, but they're rising. Exponentially (11)

The link between cases and admissions has certainly not been severed (12)

And the link between admissions and deaths hasn't been broken. Ergo the link between cases and deaths still exists (13)

Peaks in the rate of change of hospitalisations follow peaks in the rate of change of cases every time (14)

And likewise changes in deaths follow on from changes in hospitalisations (15)

And R back calculated from any of those measures shows that infection is rising. Ain't a straight rise, and its not constant, but things are getting worse. Thats what R being greater means. (16)

A lower proportion are killed than was the case (although thats more or less levelling off). A lower proportion are hospitalised (although thats slowly rising). There are no positives to draw from todays data. (17)

I wish I had something positive to say. I don't. There's nothing good to say about this. There are no measures going the right way right now, the question only becomes at what stage do we change policy, and how much harm is done first (fin)