@LemieuxLGM Pfizer/BioNTech only applied for full approval on May 7th, Moderna on June 1st.

Then, a 60-day period for checking the details of the application, which gets us to July 6th.

Full approval can take up to 6 months total...but I imagine it will come sooner.
@LemieuxLGM Safety of the vaccines was already demonstrated before the Emergency Use Authorization. Efficacy is also established.

At this point, the kind of things that might come up are things like rare side effects. Given the scrutiny that vaccines are under, the FDA could move soon.
@LemieuxLGM If the dates I have given are correct, then the FDA has only been considering Pfizer/BioNTech's complete application for approval for two weeks. I think it's not quite time yet to accuse them of foot-dragging!
@LemieuxLGM Here, an interview with NIH Director Francis Collins. He expects approval by the end of summer.

Again: these vaccine are already known to be effective and safe. The FDA has to do its job to make sure they stay that way (manufacturing, etc.) washingtonpost.com/washington-pos…
@LemieuxLGM And if you want the interview in video form: washingtonpost.com/washington-pos…

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More from @SamWangPhD

21 Jul
I realize this is a nerdy point, of interest to about five of you...but this estimate is not well-supported. The viral load from Delta is almost certainly higher...but 1000x is probably wrong.

Here we go...
Readers, please correct me if I am wrong...but the ~1000x estimate likely comes from this preprint. It reports some careful and painstaking contact tracing...but with no details. The viral load estimate is somewhat better, but has problems.

medrxiv.org/content/10.110… Image
The authors estimate viral load by amplifying up a swab, and asking how many PCR cycles it takes to get detectable SARS-CoV-2 sequence. The fewer the cycles, the more virus was present in the first place.

Delta's median number of cycles is ~25, the original 19A/19B's is ~34. Image
Read 8 tweets
7 Jun
Just one. week. left.

The Great American Map-Off is happening! Show off your redistricting skills, win prizes and accolades, and help in the quest for fair districting!

Contest ends June 15th.

#GoMapYourself #FairMaps @princetongerry gerrymander.princeton.edu/map-contest
Thoughts on what your maps can show...

In Wisconsin we're asking for a partisan-fair map of the state Senate. A GOP-controlled General Assembly and a Democratic governor are in control. A fair map provides a benchmark.

Same in Colorado, where your map can guide the commission.
Or if you are more nefarious in your thought processes, draw a "stealth" gerrymander - one that looks pretty to the eye, but hides a partisan advantage.

We're looking for Ohio & Illinois Congressional maps that build as large a partisan advantage as possible, while looking nice.
Read 6 tweets
27 May
Origin story of covid-19:
Background: many coronavirus variants have furin cleavage sites (a well-known manipulation), but SARS-CoV-2 seems to have somewhat less common codon usage.

How common? Some nerd, do a sequence alignment and tell me!

A relatively credible analysis laying out a circumstantial argument for a virology-lab escape: thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-or…
Read 8 tweets
16 May
At the heart of a federal lawsuit in Alabama is a claim that the Census Bureau's approach to protecting privacy will impede the accuracy of redistricting.

Here at the Electoral Innovation Lab's @princetongerry, we took a preliminary look at that claim.
First, basics.

For decades, the Bureau mad it harder to extract identifying information about individuals from released block-level data. Blocks typically contain one to a few dozen people.

This used to be done using a simple swapping technique.

But over the last 1.5 decades, computer scientists and statisticians developed "differential privacy," a method of adding small random numbers to block-level counts. The disruptions are easier to model rigorously - and perform quality control on the data. datasociety.net/library/balanc…
Read 20 tweets
27 Apr
News reports are saying the Census's reapportionment numbers are a gain for Republicans, a loss for Democrats. A short thread on why this is not entirely true - and why the biggest uncertainties lie ahead, in redistricting.
The claim is that Biden states lost 3 seats net, and Trump states gained 3. But this does not nearly tell the whole story. Instead, one has to examine the redistricting landscape. Warning: nerdery ahead.
Gaining: MT, OR, CO, FL, TX (2), NC.
Losing: CA, MI, IL, OH, PA, WV, NY.
This is the smallest change in seats since 1920, when reapportionment failed entirely, thanks to rural representatives blocking the entire process in order to avoid losing power. The next-closest was 1940, when 9 seats changed. So 7 seats is not a a lot.
Read 29 tweets
26 Apr
The progressive organization @runforsomething works to recruit candidates for lower office. Potentially remedies a historic weakness.

Recently a news story claimed "reverse coattails" as an additional benefit. Intriguing, but the evidence is not there yet. To dive in...
First, the claim: in precincts where a legislative race was contested by a Republican and a Democrat, President Joe Biden did 0.4-1.6* percentage points better than similar precincts that had an uncontested Republican candidate. nytimes.com/2021/04/16/us/…
*the news stories themselves say 0.3-1.5 points, but that appears to be a basic rounding error. After some searching, I found the Run For Something slide deck.

Anyway, a rounding error is not the biggest problem with this estimate. runforsomething.net/wp-content/upl…
Read 16 tweets

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