Against my better judgement, I figure it is time to relaunch the daily COVID # analysis. Because sure as heck looks like we're in the throes of early exponential growth. But man, I hope I'm wrong. 1/
Cases yest 63, a 75% rise over last Monday's 36. This is the fourth day in a row of substantial growth. 7 day average up to 49/day from a low of 39/d on July 13th. % positivity up to 1.24% highest since July 3rd (1.26%) 2/
Delta: on 18th July cases of 28, a 211% increase over last week's 9. %of total cases 28/41=68%, compared to last week's 9/32=28%. 7 day average up to 18.7, highest since July 1st (20.1). 3/
Hospitalizations: inpts -1 to 71, ICU -1 to 27. Both remarkably flat recently. 2 new deaths, 60y.o.M in North, 70 y.o. M, in South. 4/
Demographics. You do the analysis. 5/
Is this the fourth wave? Certainly looks like Calgary is in trouble. Vaccines are amazing, but we still have 1.57M completely unvaccinated Albertans, including all kids <12. And Delta is a beast. I'll keep doing these posts until things turn around, hopefully sooner than later.6/
Why care when the absolute #s are so small? For exponential growth, the win occurs when we go big, early, on restrictions, before things get out of hand (see: NS). Do I think AB will act early and prevent a fourth wave? No. Should they? Yes. #COVIDzero. fin/
Thanks to @CBCFletch and AB Health for the graphics.

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More from @jvipondmd

22 Jul
Cases yest , 88 up 151% from last Tuesday's 35, and highest since Jun 24 (92). That means 7d average cases/d still climbing, now at 56.14, up from yest 48.57 (huge jump). % positivity also climbing, now at 1.40, up from yest 1.18% (also big jump) (highest since Jun 28). 2/ ImageImage
Delta: 19June 31 cases a 244% incr from last Monday's 9. % of total cases 31/61=51% compared to 9/36=25%. 18 June #s reported yest adjusted by 2 to 30, so yest was actually a 233% incr (not 211%). steep exponential growth seen on the 7d average chart. 3/ ImageImage
Hospitalizations: inpt -3 to 71 yest. ICU stubbornly flat at 27. 15.6% drop over the week though. Deaths: zero!! Yay!! 4/ Image
Read 8 tweets
20 Jul
Back from vacation (no, I'm not back in my happy zen place... thanks climate crisis, for wrecking things). But now that Stampede is over seems like a good time for a check in on the current COVID statistics. 1/
Daily cases last three days Friday 52 up 44% from last week's 36, Saturday 47 up 57% from last week's 30, Sunday 41 up 28% last week's 32. 7day average reached a nadir of 39.71/day 15 July, now 45.71/day. Positivity up to 0.99% from a low of 0.50% on July 10th. 2/
Delta now starting to rise again, and representing a full 72% of all variants, a new record. 3/
Read 7 tweets
26 May
Summary of my thoughts on today's restrictions: 1/
First off, I'm all for opening up, but safely, and an acknowledgement of risks. See Ontario's plan for a better planned, cautious return to activity. Especially note using 2nd dose %population as a criteria: ontario.ca/page/reopening… 2/
Next: the good. Happy they are starting with relaxation of outdoor restrictions. Outdoors is really really safe. We should be encouraging more outdoor interaction, aside from prolonged, face to face, maskless interactions. 3/
Read 8 tweets
25 May
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Tuesday May 25 1/
Yest's cases 394, a 57.4% from last Monday's 925. 7day ave decrease of 48.2% v. similar compared to last 2 days. Stunning drop continues. Positivity 9.85% compared to last week's 11.45% so average keeps dropping. 2/
B1617 variant now up to 29... none new reported today but certainly a dark purple footprint on @ByMatthewBlack chart on recent days. Reminder that since the gov't has foregone 100% screening of +ves for variants this data is extremely incomplete. 3/
Read 6 tweets
24 May
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Monday May 24th. 1/
Yest cases 457, a 42.6% drop from last Sunday's 622. 7 day ave week over week drop of 46.6%, similar to yest 47.7%. Positivity 8.83% down from last week's 10.38%. So 7day average still dropping substantially. 2/
Hosps: inpts: Sat -33 to to 424 (revised from 419 yest) Yest -16 to 408(subject to revision). ICU yest stable at 161. Deaths 7: 2 in Calgary zone: 20 y.o F and 50 y.o. 2 men 60s , 70s North zone. 60y.o. woman in Edmonton zone. 2 men 80s and 90s Central zone. 3/
Read 5 tweets
23 May
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Sunday. 1/
Yest cases 561, a 50.4% decrease from last Sat's 1133. Descent still steepening, 7 day ave week over week drop of 47.7% (yest was 44.7%). If we continue at this pace we will hit 300 cases/day in 10 days. 30 cases/day in 5 weeks. 2/ Image
Positivity of 6.99%, last week was 9.71%. 7-day average still dropping precipitously, a great sign. 3/ Image
Read 6 tweets

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