I can't hold this in any longer I just have to say it.

Can we remember that the vast majority of people under 50 who caught Covid19 wouldn't have needed hospitalisation anyway. Regardless of whether they'd had a vaccine. Before we start cheering vaccines a bit too much.

Sorry.
The thing is. In my silly mind anyway. It seems most of our cases have been in the under 50's as have most of our hospitalisations. And generally thay age group fights it off well. However even if vaccines stop half of infections that means cases are going to move into the old.
When you get prevalence of 1 in 100, or 1 in 50 people infected in some places. And you have no restrictions in place to stop transmission TO the elderly then they will catch it. And I guess 10% of the over 70's who do might well die.

Which is partly why i see 0.6% CFR I guess.
Doesn't mean I'm right. Its just a pattern in my head.

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More from @Unusual_Times

19 Jul
And yet on paper it looks barely any different to its parent B.1617.2 Delta
Read 4 tweets
3 Jun
So B.1.616(1) and B.1.616(2) variants both (not) detected in France, slip past PCR tests. Former from a single outbreak, latter not widely spreading yet I don't think.

More importantly

B.1.620 first identified in Lithuania, found in many EU countries and also central Africa
B.1620, 20+ mutations including E484K, S477N and deletions HV69Δ Y144Δ & LLA241/243Δ

Do deletions make it more stable and capable of increased transmission ? B.1617 2&3 have the 156-158del ?

Anyhow one(s) to watch for today @Dr_D_Robertson @chrischirp

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Last Q for today off out. But why is there so little focus on T478K found in B.1.617(2)

It is the only anomaly among the three sub-lineages that stands out to me. Is it possible this is driving transmission ?? Dunno but it doesn't seem to be getting even a second glance ??
Read 4 tweets

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