The most successful traders of all time were not afraid to bet BIG when they 1) saw an opportunity within their sphere of competition and 2) the risk/reward was too good to ignore.

As retail traders, we often forget #1.

Let's dive in. Time for a thread with some hard truth ⬇️
Sometimes, we try to bet like the "big boys" without the same information that the big boys have. Every young investor wants to be the next Buffett, but there's a fundamental flaw with that: You didn't run a successful hedge fund & you don't have the connections he had. /2
This thread isn't about Buffett, but if you think he amassed his wealth by simply "buying great companies at good prices" then 1) you're wrong and 2) you're missing the point: He was able to get deals that you can't, and he had information that you don't. /3
Similarly, I see a lot of young traders wanting to be Soros (but without the international government connections), or Simon's (without the mathematical knowledge), or Nancy Pelosi (without the inside information).

My point: Know your sphere of competition & trade within it. /4
Do you really think George Soros made his legendary bet against the Baht without an incredible level of intel & research? You think he used fucking Elliott Wave Theory?

As a retail trader, why are you trying to trade on a macro scale? My advice: Don't.

Soros can hold a big bet with conviction for months and millions of pips because he's trading within the sphere of competition that he rightfully belongs in.

Your sphere is likely MUCH smaller, but that doesn't mean you have to trade differently than George...

No matter the sphere, the principles of great trading are the same: When you see it, hit it HARD and hit it LARGE.

So while Soros holds for months, I may only hold for minutes. That's okay. We're both traders practicing the same thing: Risk management and opportunism.

This long winded thread is simply meant to encourage you to be realistic about what your true sphere of competition is, in order to give yourself a practical measurement of success in trading.

If you're macro trading without suitable macro intel, you're asking to get smoked.

I catch shit all the time: "But Horse all of that was just for 10pts?!" Fuck yes it was, but that's my sphere, and I waited patiently & hit those 10pts hard as hell.

I'm not Soros, I don't know what's likely to happen in the next 5 months, but if the right setup is there I'm really fucking good at knowing what's likely to happen in the next 5 minutes.

That's my sphere. That's my edge. That's how I trade.



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More from @Michigandolf

30 Jun
Sometimes you trade like crap & still make money. It's called getting lucky & should not become a habit.

I had a profitable day but was not happy with how I traded, so I thought I'd recap my day in case it's helpful to anyone. Some good lessons here worth sharing

Thread ⬇️ /1
This morning, I was talking to a trader that I have great respect for and he made a great observation about the delta at 4275. He said: "It looks like sellers are trying to break this market but getting nowhere."

Everyone talks about "Price Action" but what is it? /2
Sometimes price action can be described as simply as my trader friend put it. It doesn't have to be quantitative or confusing. Often the simplest observations are the most powerful. Ask yourself "what am I seeing?" /3
Read 7 tweets
29 Jun
I use & create a lot of different tools to trade my strategy, and over the past few months I've had the pleasure to work with some of the tools created by the team at @orderflowlabs. They are doing some really incredible work, so if you're serious about trading check them out. /1
The tools they've created synthesize information that a lot of us look at; however the tools are doing it much faster than I can, which allows me to focus more time on entries/exits. /2
For clarity, they are not providing a "get rich quick" plug 'n play system; these tools are designed to teach YOU how to better visualize key market participation & act on it. /3
Read 6 tweets
18 Jun
$SPY Model 🤔

Green Arrow Up favors the bulls. BUT, I don't love the fact that there's no wick (no fight).

Historical bloody days have been preceded by lackluster Fridays (10/6/08, 10/19/87, 10/28/29); I'm only mentioning it because every permabear will.


I wouldn't be surprised if the permabears fail to mention the impact of today's OpEx+SPY Divvy.

As with any trading system, I don't ignore my signals, so I still favor buying dips. This doesn't feel like "the big one" but I could be wrong. Sunday's globex will be telling.

Longtime followers know nobody loves trading short more than I, and I'll gladly do so come Sunday if that's what the trade is, but in that case I'd rather short $ES due to the weakness of the banks...and $RTY because it's bloated fermenting garbage. I'll avoid $NQ at all costs./3
Read 4 tweets
10 Jun
Open Letter to My Bearish Brethren:

I get it. Nothing makes sense anymore. Markets have gone wild. I feel you.

It’s no secret that I hate CNBC and every moron on there, but humor me and do me a favor: Watch/listen to it for a while & take a break from fintwit.

Hear me out…⬇️
We’ve already established that big money moves markets, and there’s indeed idiots with big money. Listening to CNBC you’ll quickly realize that ABSOLUTELY NOBODY IS BEARISH RIGHT NOW.

I know what you’re thinking. The excessive bullishness confirms your bear thesis, right?

Yes and no. I’m absolutely long term bearish the USA & our markets, but it pains me to see people trying to top tick the markets, day after day. Friends don’t let friends waste all of their capital on Puts.

Read 8 tweets
17 May
Time for a Thread:

I'm attracted to the markets because it's a never ending game of 4D Chess and there's a million ways to play it, but only one way of keeping score: $$$

The biggest mistake you can make is not having a strategy of your own.

Here's some different approaches⬇️
Orderflow, Scalping, and Volume Profiles:

These traders are in cash at the EOD (usually) and have developed an astute understanding of auction theory & an eye for order flow.

Trades: Very Frequent


Social Arbitrage:

These traders rarely, if ever, look at a chart. They've developed methodologies to gauge social sentiment & invest BEFORE the general public FOMOs in.

Trades: Infrequent


Read 9 tweets
10 May
Alight, story time. I promise there's a point.

Went to get my haircut today & the place uses online check-in now since the pandemic started. I checked in online, said an hour wait. Cool, I'll run some errands first.

I showed up 15min before my appointment /1
and they said it would be another hour wait. I asked why & they said that I needed to come in after checking in online to verify that I am here.

Me: "Interesting, so what's the point of online check-in then?"

No response. I noticed nobody else was in there & asked if they /2
could slip me in. They said no there's 2 people in front of me. I asked where they were and they said they called and said they were running late (they were each an hour late).

Me: "Ah, so you don't lose your spot if you call & say you'll be late?"

Them: "Correct." /3
Read 7 tweets

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