Grandview: Tall Tales from Covidia

In the interest of time let's assume everyone read this hot piece of panic porn. People are dying. There are regrets. Alabamians thought it was a hoax (never met this unicorn). Had we only listened to the experts.

Grandview is a ~425 bed hospital in Alabama, owned by Community Health Systems. CHS hospitals in Alabama comprise 12% of company revenue. Grandview is roughly 30% of the Alabama volume. Likely 3-4% of CHS revenue.
Like EVERYWHERE (oh you didn't know that?) during the pandemic, CHS volume was down. A LOT.

chs.net/investor-relat…
{if you already knew this you can skip ahead} For those unaware, yes----the hospitals saw their lowest utilization (maybe ever) during the COVID-19 pandemic

Nationwide and in the South. Hospitals were not OVERWHELMED. It's not even debatable. And it's not from cancelling mommy-makeovers and rescheduling Eunice's new hip. ER visits were down 20-25%. People died at home bc truly awful people like @DeLeanaWen told them to stay home.
All over the South, all over the nation. Most doctors saw fewer patients and managed to spend more time on social media. "Hospitals are filling up again" is simply a lie. No other way around it. (another down the road in Tuscaloosa)
Have people died from Covid? Sure. A lot of them. Have Covid deaths been overattributed? You bet. Two audits in California, hospital studies of pediatric patients, a lot more nursing home C19 deaths than extra deaths. They've been overattributed, but C19 killed a lot.
A few weeks ago the HHS added a field to its hospital files.

"Number of patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 who died on the previous calendar day in the hospital, ED, or overflow location"
Here's what that looks like for Alabama. The state didn't open up the vaccine for 16+ until 4/5. Until that point it had been 55+, and only had dropped from 65+ on 3/30.

alabamapublichealth.gov/covid19vaccine…
Realistically most young adults couldn't have been doubly-jabbed until May 1st. Since 5/1, the prior-day Died With total is 240 (that's through this morning's HHS update).
Grandview's total % of inpatient adult Covid, since the HHS began collection last summer, is 2.9%. But let's be generous here. Let's assume Grandview has seen 3.5% of all patients post 5/1 & their performance is roughly the same as other AL hospitals. That's 8.4 deaths since 5/1
A doctor working 33% of each day might be expected to witness between 2-3 deaths. Let's say the good doctor witnessed half. 4-5 deaths between 5/1. In 2.5 months. For a disease that, were it a tree, would be protected by the Arbor Day Foundation for its extremely old age.
From the Medicare data this hospital saw fiscal year-ending 9/30 ~ same-slightly more # of deaths they've seen every year. It's only CMS data so we can't know for sure. But we do know doctors have seen a lot of death. Why are we sharing these over-the-top stories now?
Because people like @PeterHotez and others have so politicized the vaccines that we think we need this insane messaging to reach EVERYONE (many of whom don't need it). But as with so much during this pandemic, the messaging is off. People in the South aren't inherently anti-vax.
People in the South grew up trusting their doctors. Implicitly trusting them. Doctors are (sadly now it might be 'were') lauded in the South.

You want to know what will reach people in the South?
Grace and Forgiveness.
"I'm sorry"
"Please forgive us"
"We promise never to do that again"

Stop ignoring the fact the hospitals were empty. Stop ignoring the fact our experts ignored the preparedness plans.

If you want to increase vax uptake in the South, it's not that hard.

"I'm sorry"
The one time I really wanted to tag @DrLeanaWen and I misspell it 🤦🏻‍♂️

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More from @snorman1776

21 Jul
Mississippi health experts are throwing themselves a “Heroes Gala.” That’s right; after a year of seeing record-low volumes, bankrupting businesses, obfuscating data, and covering kids’ faces, the frontline boys from Belgium of 1917 are gonna throw themselves a shindig.
So “overwhelmed”
Sorta like the entire South
Read 4 tweets
4 Jul
March-2020: A month that will live in infamy. While America destroyed itself with hysteria and quackery, some doctors composed more tweets than medical charts. Get those quads warm. We're gonna be moving some goalposts up in here today with @RyanMarino

The fear was real for extremely-online doctors. Cuomo was "solid." Quite dramatic. When we got hungry we ate dirt. You ate dirt? We ate dirt.

Many people questioned these methods of dealing with a respiratory virus. We were told we were selfish...disaster plans called for this very thing don't ya know!

Read 40 tweets
28 Jun
10 years ago @JenniferNuzzo hosted a panel to discuss pandemic preparedness. Among the panelists: D.A. Henderson, credited with leading charge to eradicate smallpox. Jennifer asks, “what would you do if there were a significant new disease.” SARS-like 🤔

DA Henderson - I've been in lots of epidemics.  First thing a poltician does is tell you everything is OK which everyone knows is patently false (laughter)
Ronald St John, former Canadian official, formerly with WHO: public will demand response, government will put some of these in place but it's a two-edge sword bc government will say they are doing something but loses trust when it doesn't kep virus out

Read 9 tweets
19 Jun
2017–pandemic preparedness panel. Laurie Garrett discussing NPI measures.

“the United States can never shut itself off to the rest of the world. Our economy, as you point out, would collapse very quickly. And it’s just not—it’s just not possible.”

“the only evidence that quarantining a nation, blocking yourself off from the rest of the world, has any effect on influenza are the following. One, Tasmania had the lowest death toll in 1918. They did literally shut themselves down. But, then again, we’re not Tasmania”
“New Zealand has done its own analysis of what if that islands nation shut itself off to all travel, all trade. And they figured they would buy themselves 30 days.”
Read 5 tweets
8 Jun
My public health dream team:

CDC Director: @TheEliKlein
NIH Director: @TracyBethHoeg
Head of Analytics: @meepbobeep
Director of Epidemiology: @districtai
Chief Data Officer: @Hold2LLC
Chief Learning Officer: @EWoodhouse7
Assistant to the CDC Director: @GYamey
Surgeon General: @MartyMakary
NIAID Director: @contrarian4data
Director of IT: @ifihadastick
Redacted Top Secret/Might be a Mole Job Title: @foogatwo
Data Viz: @BenMarten
Director of Social Media: @The_Colonel_Dax
Photographer: <Redacted>
Historian: @the_brumby
Field Researcher and in-house expert on cigarette addiction: @Emily_Burns_V
Editor: @annbauerwriter
General Counsel: @PhilHollowayEsq
Director of Recruiting: @ianmSC
Campus Outreach: @nay_sue1
Scribe: @TrishtheDish_7
Welcoming Committee: @LilithAssyria
Read 6 tweets

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